The latest polling shows a six-point Conservative lead. Or, as it might otherwise be expressed, Labour is still six points behind this.
But what of the Red Wall? Well, where is the Red Wall? The Conservative Party gained 20 seats in 2017, and it lost six of them back to the SNP in 2019. But it picked up another 58 that night, mostly from Labour, and almost all of them in Leave-voting areas north of the line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel.
That gives 72 Red Wall seats, and the Conservatives' overall majority is 80. These 72 seats, as such, ought to be polled weekly. If the Conservatives are still ahead here, then we may be in serious trouble. But if the Labour Party is still behind here, then the Labour Party is certainly in very serious trouble, indeed. And it is. Of course it is.
If you were a Red Wall swing voter and you were to imagine the Labour Party as a person, then it would be the woman who, with the full force of the State, had banned you from seeing your children without ever having contacted you, and who had then informed you of that decision in a letter that had incorrectly called your children by your ex-wife's maiden name. Or someone like that. Why would you vote for her?
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