Wednesday, 1 April 2026

On Advice

The King has to go to the United States because the threat to the monarchy, the only serious such threat since at least the popular anti-German sentiment of the First World War, comes from factions that, though disparate, would all have voted for Donald Trump all three times. Next month's Unite the Kingdom rally was already going to call on Trump to invade this country and effect regime change.

Trump maintains that there has been regime change in Iran and that he now just needed the new regime to accept his terms for peace by reopening the Strait of Hormuz that he had closed in the first place. The American Embassy has reopened in the Venezuela to which MarĂ­a Corina Machado has not returned. With that kind of record, whom might Trump install? Matt Goodwin? Charlie Downes? Young Bob?

Yesterday, Keir Starmer literally gave the red carpet treatment to President Ahmed al-Sharaa of Syria, who is otherwise Abu Mohammad al-Julani in the manner of "Tommy Robinson", and who is massacring Christians as befits a sometime second-in-command both of Al-Qaeda and of the so-called Islamic State to which Shamima Begum was trafficked such that she was not permitted to return to Britain.

Al-Sharaa was particularly warmly welcomed by the Foreign Office Minister, MI6 asset, and nepo baby, Hamish Falconer. American regime change may not make Falconer Prime Minister, but it would favour someone like that, a hardcore Blairite as it had already delivered a hardcore Chavista and as it welcomed a hardcore Khomenist instead of mild backsliders in either case. Karl Turner could oppose the attack on trial by jury all he liked, but it was when he pointed out the obvious falsehood of Morgan McSweeney's account of his messages to Peter Mandelson that the whip was withdrawn, via media announcement alone, by McSweeney's wife. Think on.

Tuesday, 31 March 2026

Nice Girls Love A Sailor?

Remember that David Taylor has been known to holiday with Princess Beatrice, while Joani Reid is a stalwart of the Labour Together of Josh Simons and was therefore handpicked for her seat by Peter Mandelson, as you read Lucy Fisher:

The captain of one of Britain’s nuclear-armed submarines has stepped back from his role this week after being investigated over his relationship with Joani Reid, the Labour MP whose husband has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China.

The Royal Navy launched an investigation last year in response to allegations that the senior military officer — who is married — had conducted an inappropriate relationship with Reid, according to people familiar with the matter. The probe was necessary from a “due diligence perspective” to examine any potential blackmail risk, one of the people added.

Fresh security checks were carried out this month after Reid’s husband was arrested under the UK National Security Act on suspicion of assisting China’s foreign intelligence service, the people said. The Ministry of Defence was satisfied by the checks and remains confident that there was no breach of security.

This week, after the MoD was approached about the matter by the FT, the officer decided to step back from his position for personal reasons. He has not left the Royal Navy.

People familiar with the case said that the allegations of an inappropriate relationship were thoroughly investigated last year and the captain was not subjected to disciplinary action. The officer has not broken any military rules.

However, the captain and Reid were found to have exchanged flirtatious messages and action was taken to mitigate any blackmail risk, one of the people said. Reid rejects that the messages were flirtatious, a person close to her said.

The officer and Reid, MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven, first met as young adults, according to the people familiar with the matter.

Reid’s constituency is about 50km from His Majesty’s naval base, Clyde at Faslane, the site that is home to the UK’s strategic nuclear deterrent.

In January 2025 she visited the base as part of a visit organised by the armed forces parliamentary scheme, which provides UK legislators with insight into the operations of the British military. The captain was not on the base at the time, but the pair were in contact following her visit.

The pair are thought to have met once as well as exchanged messages, but have had no contact since September, the people said. There was no physical relationship between the pair.

A Royal Navy spokesperson told the FT: “The security of the nuclear deterrent is our highest priority, and we have robust processes in place to protect the security of our people and capabilities. We will not comment on individual cases.” 

Reid’s spokesperson declined to comment. The FT sought to approach the officer via the MoD, which declined the request. UK military personnel are not permitted to speak with the media without authorisation from the ministry. 

Reid’s husband, David Taylor, was one of three men connected to the Labour Party who were arrested in an operation led by counterterror police. The police investigation relates to “foreign interference targeting UK democracy”, security minister Dan Jarvis has said.

Taylor is named in Reid’s parliamentary register of interests as a family member engaged in third-party lobbying with regard to his role as director of the company Earthcott Ltd.

On the day of her husband’s arrest on March 4, Reid said: “I have never seen anything to make me suspect my husband has broken any law. I am not part of my husband’s business activities and neither I nor my children are part of this investigation.”

The following day she announced she had “voluntarily” suspended herself from the Labour whip “until internal investigations are concluded”.

The Royal Navy has been beset by scandals in recent years. In 2024, the commander of a Vanguard-class submarine was sacked after filming a sex video, according to reports.

It came after another commander of a Vanguard-class submarine was removed from his vessel in 2017 amid claims of an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate.

Last year Admiral Sir Ben Key, then head of the navy, was sacked after an MoD investigation into his relationship with a female subordinate, as first reported by the FT. Key had made clear his intention to step down from the post.

The UK government has previously confirmed that if the actions or behaviour of service personnel “adversely impact, or are likely to impact, on the efficiency or operational effectiveness of the service then a range of sanctions may be applied, up to and including dismissal” and that “misconduct involving abuse of position, trust or rank . . . will be viewed as being particularly serious”.

Britain’s nuclear deterrent — its most sensitive weapons system — is provided by four Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines, which carry Trident II D5A missiles and associated Mk4A/Holbrook warheads.

The programme’s total acquisition cost was about £23bn in 2024-25 prices. The estimated cost of the design and manufacture of the successor Dreadnought-class submarines, which are set to come into service in the early 2030s, is £31bn, according to the House of Commons library.

In their role providing a continuous-at-sea deterrent, one of the four boats is always at sea. Details of their operating patterns and location when at sea are among the MoD’s most closely guarded secrets.

The ageing fleet of Vanguard-class submarines requires increasingly complex maintenance, which in turn means seaworthy boats are forced to undertake arduously long missions.

Last year HMS Vanguard, one of the four boats, spent 204 days underwater before returning to the Clyde — a record patrol. It has become the norm for the nuclear-armed submarines to spend five months at sea.

While in relation to a different senior naval officer, Anna Mikhailova, Oliver Wright and Ben Ellery write:

An MP whose husband is facing claims of spying for China was reported for inappropriate conduct with a senior naval officer working on Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

Joani Reid left the Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme (AFPS) last year shortly after getting “carried away” during a visit to the Faslane naval base in Argyll and Bute, which is home to the UK’s nuclear submarines.

She was alleged to have behaved inappropriately with a senior naval officer during a drinks reception. The incident is thought to have led to her leaving the scheme, which has been operating for more than 30 years and offers MPs firsthand experience of the military, early last year.

The incident also led to Reid being reported to parliamentary authorities by an MP after her husband, David Taylor, was arrested on suspicion of spying for China in March. He denies the allegations.

They said they took the decision because of fears that information on Britain’s highly-sensitive nuclear deterrent could inadvertently have ended up in enemy hands. However, one senior figure said they were satisfied there was “no link” at all to the China spy case.

The incident was also separately reported to parliamentary authorities by the military before Taylor’s arrest.

Sources told The Times that Reid met the naval officer last year when she and other MPs on the scheme were taken to Faslane for a two-day visit organised by the AFPS to see the home of the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

The group are understood to have stayed at the base and had drinks in the officers’ mess. One MP said: “She behaved very inappropriately, and then carried on after the drinks.”

Another said that Reid had been “extremely drunk” and was “all over” the senior naval officer. They added that at one stage a female officer involved in organising the trip asked her to go to bed and had been sworn at by Reid.

According to another parliamentarian, there was “plenty of flirting going round when you’re that drunk” but added he could not remember any specific incident involving Reid.

However, The Times was told that Reid’s alleged behaviour had been brought to the attention of the Commons speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, who is a trustee of the AFPS.

His office is said to have raised concerns with officials who run the scheme who confirmed that Reid was no longer taking part in the programme and had left of her own accord.

A parliamentarian on the trip said they had been made aware of Reid’s behaviour but had not witnessed it themselves. One accused Conservative MPs on the visit of “trying to make mischief”.

Labour whips were also made aware of the incident after concerns were raised by other MPs on the trip.

A source close to Reid said that claims she had been reported because of national security concerns were “opportunistic hypocrisy, as shown by the nearly a year gap between the events and the report”.

They said: “Many of the male MPs attending had plenty to drink too but only the woman is reported. Not hard to see what the real force behind this is when you consider that.”

They added that any suggestion Reid had any relationship with the submariner was nonsense. “They have never spoken since and Joani doesn’t even know his name,” they said.

Participants in the AFPS are able to choose which service course they wish to enrol in — Royal Navy, Army or RAF — with a minimum commitment of 15 days over the 12-month duration of the course.

Those who complete the course attend a graduation dinner along with senior military officers and defence ministers.

Another MP who was on the two-day trip described how the MPs were given a tour around the facilities at Fastlane and were shown equipment that they described as “petrifying” because of the state it was in. They were also shown around two submarines.

Reid, who was elected as Labour MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven at the last election, resigned the Labour whip last month after her husband was arrested on suspicion of spying for China alongside two other men.

Speaking after his arrest she said she had never seen anything to make her suspect that her husband had “broken any law”. She added that she had never been to China nor had she ever spoken on any China-related matters in the House of Commons.

“I have never asked a question on China-related matters,” she said. “As far as I am aware I have never met any Chinese businesses whilst I have been an MP, any Chinese diplomats or government employees, nor raised any concern with ministers or anyone else on behalf of, even coincidentally, Chinese interests.”

She said that she was a social democrat who believes in “freedom of expression, free trade unions and free elections” and not any sort of “admirer or apologist for the Chinese Communist Party’s dictatorship”.

As in the West from the Industrial Revolution onwards, the social conditions of the China created by Deng Xiaoping and his successors have in turn created a New Left characterised by a strong patriotism and sometimes by a distinct cultural conservatism. Yet it was Deng who restored proper exams such as obtained in the Soviet Union and under Old Left influence in the West. That is a lesson to today’s Britain, which more broadly needs a Left that was searing in its critique of the anti-family and anti-sovereignty capitalism of the Epstein Class in general and of the Labour Party in particular.

But You Can’t Have It All

Marina Hyde writes:

“She’s produced a bestseller!” panted The Spectator. “Liz Truss’s new book has been out for less than 72 hours and it’s already sold out on Amazon.” Thus began the fairly widespread British media hallucination that the 45-day PM was once more igniting the nation with her 2024 book Ten Years to Save the West. In the end, Truss’s book sold 2,228 copies in the UK in its first week, which placed it at No 70 in the “bestseller” charts . The next week it had fallen back to 223, comfortably obliterated by any number of cookbooks, novels, self-help titles and sticker books, none of which had enjoyed anything like its level of publicity. You hear a lot about AI hallucinations, but rather less about the hallucinations suffered by journalists all on their own.

So, then, to the furore over the academic/recent Reform candidate Matt Goodwin’s new book, which I find at least as high-stakes for our culture as that courtroom battle between Gwyneth Paltrow and the – I think? – retired optometrist who accidentally skied into her.

Goodwin has self-published a book called Suicide of a Nation: Immigration, Islam, Identity, and the political writer Andy Twelves has made his case that the book is likely AI-assisted, given that it contains various imaginary quotes from philosophers and ChatGPT links in some footnotes and so on. One of them challenged the other to a debate on GB News, which was very much won by Twelves. But also by Goodwin, given we live in a post-shame political culture and you really could not buy this level of publicity for a sub-mediocre nonfiction book in its week of release. Neither gentleman is wearing their triumph lightly, shall we say. But we live in the click wars and the respective hustles have made a fun diversion while we wait for the petrol wars to start.

Goodwin is wisely posting through this wonderfully profile-boosting episode, and his chosen avenue is to suggest his book is a bona fide publishing phenomenon. (He has also said he used AI for research purposes only.) But let’s get down to brass tacks, because there are only so many self-aggrandising posts about this supposed cultural juggernaut I can become aware of before I have to ask the Opinion desk if I can file my column a bit later than usual so we can take a look at the actual verified sales figures when they drop. Guys, they’re in – and the second half of this column is for paid subscribers only. I’m kidding, I’m kidding. Welcome, all; enjoy the stats.

To hear Matt tell it, this book has been taken up by a veritable army of “the people”. Of liberals/the left/whoever, he writes that “their biggest fear is coming true” because the book is the “second-biggest book in Britain”. Hmmm. I know you can’t say Easter in this country any more, but at the time of typing this paragraph, 11 out of the top 20 books on Amazon in the UK were Easter-themed children’s books. Goodwin was on Monday night pushing a picture of the top three on the Amazon UK bestsellers chart, with his book sandwiched at No 2, between Fluffy Chick: A Touch and Feel Book and a seasonal book about an illegal immigrant (Paddington’s Easter Egg Hunt). As Matt put it: “I’ve never seen anything like this.” You’ve never seen anything like coming second in something? Weird, because I heard you had – and only last month as well. Anyway, Goodwin was also relying on the “hot new releases” Kindle chart, presumably because at that moment, he was No 47 in the actual Kindle chart. Listen, you can make a lot of statistics seem to say a lot of different things.

In fact, many people will have noticed authors posting something along the lines of: “OMG I can’t believe I’m No 3 on Amazon’s Military Hardware and Bitcoin Numismatics chart! Thank you to everyone involved in this book – absolutely blown away!” Don’t get me wrong, it’s nice that dear old Amazon wants to help authors push books, but a lot of these esoteric charts are the equivalent of participation medals.

Furthermore, dare I mention that March is a non-competitive month to release a book? If Matt really wished to gauge the strength of feeling for his output, he would publish in September or October, and see how he fares against the serious big hitters. And yes, I am including the airfryer books in that.

Of course, some books are so big that the release date doesn’t even matter. That Spectator article about the Truss literary supremacy went on to sniff: “Prince Harry may be rather affronted to see that his own book, Spare, is even lower on the biography chart in, um, 91st place.” Bless that “um”. Um, I think Prince Harry would probably have been OK with the fact that, despite being a January release, his was the fastest selling non-fiction title of all time, selling 3.2m copies in its first week – 467,000 here in the UK alone. On a Matt Goodwin-esque extrapolation of the stats, that means Harry was worth 200 Liz Trusses and, by populist demand, should have immediately replaced Rishi Sunak as prime minister. Never mind Harry’s royal titles – he should be fitted with the blurb “The PM They Tried to Ban”.

Ultimately, in a fractured culture, there’s always more than one way to spin a yardstick. Given that Truss only took an advance of £1,512, you could argue that as an investment her book was less commercially disappointing than, say, Boris Johnson’s. Given the publisher’s outlay-versus-return, BoJo’s was comparable to a big Hollywood flop, despite selling far more copies. Matt Goodwin’s self-published effort is the equivalent of a micro-budget indie horror.

Sorry, those actual stats, according to the official book sales monitor NielsenIQ BookScan. In its first week of sale, in a week where the No 1 book sold 33,000 copies, Suicide of a Nation sold 5,539, making it this week’s No 20. That’s a hell of a lot less than The Dinosaur That Pooped Easter, but you can’t have it all.

Like To Thank The Academy?

It would not matter on the radio, but Scott Mills and Matt Goodwin do look arrestingly alike. Goodwin could replace Mills, except that he has shown the way of doing so far more cheaply by using Artificial Intelligence instead. Never work yourself out of a job, Matty Boy. If you really did have ties to the working class, then you would know that.

Goodwin's retort to his latest critics, that his concern was now book sales, is perfectly valid. He is no longer in academia, and indeed everyone now calls him "Mr Goodwin"; his lack of objection is another sign that he is far from prolier than thou, since horny-handed sons and daughters of the toil can be very insistent on their doctorates. Whatever has become of the candidates who were doctored under Professor Goodwin? And if bilingualism is such a problem, then would he end all teaching of modern foreign languages? If not, why not? A former humanities professor, is he himself a monoglot anglophone?

Not being a mother tongue English-speaker did not prevent Rowan Williams from becoming Archbishop of Canterbury, and his successor but one knew exactly which buttons to press at her installation, from the Kyrie in the same Urdu as those leaflets, to the Gospel in the Spanish of both countries that had outstanding territorial disputes with the United Kingdom. That Gospel was read by a Mexican whose church had very little connection to the Church of England, having been founded in 1860 when dissident Catholic priests had secured a bishop from the American Episcopalians, who had themselves been constituted 75 years earlier due to treason against the Crown, and whose own Orders derived from the Scottish Episcopalians, notable for their persistent Jacobitism. As for Urdu, it was the parental language of my schoolmate who has since won a BAFTA. Over to you, Goodwin.

The Living Democratic Element

Chris Daw KC writes:

I first went to watch jury trials in the at Liverpool Crown Court after a rudimentary 1980s computer careers test informed me, with the kind of brutal confidence only primitive technology can muster, that I was fit for only two possible futures: the Bar, or stage and screen. Despite having no clue what it really entailed, I chose the first, though I can see the overlap. Criminal advocacy, at its best, is performance with a moral purpose. It is theatre, yes, but theatre with consequences measured in liberty, reputation and sometimes life itself.

I was hooked immediately. I spent most of my 17-year-old summer sitting in the public gallery in wonder: at the skill of the advocates, at the concentration of the juries, and at the extraordinary outcomes in cases where jurors disbelieved the police and believed defendants who, on paper, did not look especially promising. Many had difficult backgrounds. Some had defences which, at first glance, seemed improbable. Yet the jury listened. Really listened. And I realised, very early, how vital it is that some decisions are made not by the state, not by professionals who inhabit the system every day, but by ordinary citizens with no skin in the game, no axe to grind and no preconceptions about what they are about to decide.

That lesson has never left me. Thirty-nine years and hundreds of jury trials later, I have seen the same thing in every kind of case: the tiny, quiet case nobody reports and the huge, headline-making case with cameras outside; allegations of child sexual abuse, murder, serious organised crime, multi-million-pound fraud, money laundering and international drug trafficking on an industrial scale — think cocaine concealed in industrial equipment and wholesale quantities, straight off the ship from South America.

My trials have included a £533 million conspiracy to import high-purity cocaine, a £30 million money-laundering operation, and countless cases of commercial and tax fraud of every kind. I also defended in the Ryan Giggs case, in which a Manchester Crown Court jury could not reach verdicts. A retrial was later abandoned and not guilty verdicts were entered. I acted in the Hillsborough fresh inquests and subsequent criminal proceedings, widely portrayed as a “cover-up” case, where the inquests ran before a jury for over two years and my client in the later criminal trial was cleared on the judge’s direction. 

Few in the current debate have noted that, by removing the jury, not only does the system change the ultimate decision-maker but it removes an entire layer of protection from the defendant. At present, judges can filter out cases, which are unsustainable in law, with juries left to return verdicts on cases only where the judge declares a case to answer. A vital safeguard will be gone.

What all of those cases have in common is this: the jury is not a decorative flourish. It is not a quaint relic. It is the living democratic element in criminal justice. A jury brings not legal expertise but something just as important — collective judgment, common sense, life experience, scepticism, mercy, independence and the ability to test the state’s case against the reality of human behaviour. David Lammy’s own Lammy Review stressed that trust in impartial decisions rests not only on judicial independence but on the connection between courts and the communities they serve, and it cited research finding very similar jury conviction rates across ethnic groups, concluding that jury verdicts were one stage of the system where Black, Asian and minority ethnic groups did not face persistent disproportionality. 

That is why the present attack on jury trial matters so much. At the time of writing, the Courts and Tribunals Bill is in committee stage in the House of Commons. The Bill would remove the defendant’s right to elect Crown Court trial for all triable-either-way offences where magistrates accept jurisdiction; remove the need for a defendant’s consent before a Crown Court case is sent back down to the magistrates’ court; create a new Crown Court Bench Division in which triable-either-way cases likely to attract up to three years’ custody would be tried by a judge alone; introduce judge-only trials for certain lengthy and technical fraud cases; and replace the automatic right of appeal from the magistrates’ court to the Crown Court with a permission stage and issue-based appeal.

The government’s explanation is by now tediously familiar. It says the reforms are necessary to deliver “faster and fairer justice for victims”. It points to a Crown Court backlog of around 80,000 cases, with nearly 20,000 waiting over a year, including around 2,000 rape cases. It says this is a pragmatic response to rising demand, that investment alone is not enough, that jury trial will be “reserved” for the most serious cases, and that judges rather than defendants should “triage” where cases are heard — much as “experts” do in other public services. David Lammy told the Commons that juries would remain “the cornerstone” of the system, that only the threshold was changing, and that after the reforms about three quarters of Crown Court trials would still be heard by a jury.

I regard that explanation as lame because it is lame. The jury did not cause this crisis. The jury did not close courtrooms, allow buildings to rot, leave cells broken, fail to provide enough judges and staff, or produce endless delays in transporting prisoners to court. Even Sir Brian Leveson’s own overview says the most significant cause of the present mess is chronic underfunding at every step. The Bar Council says bluntly that juries have not caused the crisis and that the language of “modernisation” is a Trojan horse to hack away at a constitutional principle. An open letter to the Prime Minister, signed by a remarkable range of lawyers — including me — points instead to unused courtrooms, PECS failures, crumbling buildings and shortages of staff, judges and counsel. I have said the same thing publicly myself: the current chaos has “nothing to do with the 1000 year-old jury system”. 

Then there is the small matter of the evidence. The government’s own impact assessment says the measures begin to come into force only from the end of March 2028. It estimates that around 5,500 cases which would currently receive a jury trial will instead be kept in the magistrates’ courts, and around 4,000 further Crown Court cases will be heard by a judge alone, while about 10,000 cases will still be heard by a jury. The Institute for Government says the reforms would almost halve the number of jury trials while reducing total Crown Court time by less than 10%, and that judge-only trials themselves would save less than 2% of total court time if they are 20% quicker. The Bar Council’s written evidence says these are not “low-level” offences, that the change would affect under 2% of cases, and that even on the government’s own estimate it will make no difference to the backlog for many years, if at all. That is a ruinous constitutional price for a marginal and delayed managerial gain. 

And make no mistake: this is the thin end of the wedge. I have said publicly that once the government gets away with cutting jury trial by 50%, it will be on a “short and greasy slope” to the 95% cut originally contemplated. That is not paranoia. It is how constitutional retreat works. First, jury trial ceases to be a right and becomes a rationed resource. Then it becomes a question of administrative convenience. Then some future minister moves the threshold again. Leveson’s own earlier recommendation was to remove the right to elect only for offences carrying less than two years’ custody, yet the government has already gone further. Sir Geoffrey Cox put it perfectly in the Commons: once you say three years, why not four or five? Little by little, a hole is driven through the principle itself. 

There is also a deeper human point, and this matters every bit as much as the constitutional one. Some decisions simply require the judgment of the whole community. Cases involving allegations of violence, sexual behaviour, coercion, dishonesty or corrupt police conduct are rarely mechanical exercises. They turn on nuance, tone, context, class, culture, language, psychology and credibility. They involve the question not only “what happened?” but “what do we, as a society, make of what happened?” 

A single judge may be wise, diligent and fair. Many are. But one mind is still one mind. Twelve citizens bring twelve lives into the room. That plurality is not a weakness in the system; it is the safeguard. And at a time when wider research continues to find ethnic disparities elsewhere in criminal justice outcomes, it is perverse to weaken one part of the system where Lammy found no persistent disproportionality in verdicts.

I have said on LinkedIn that “we must fight for jury trials with everything we have got”, and I meant it. I have argued publicly that no human-designed system produces fairer or more respected verdicts than an English jury. I have likened the government’s plans to bulldozing Piccadilly Circus to build a bus station, and I stand by the point even if the metaphor is mischievous. Barristers should not be neutral about this. We are not hired merely to process cases through a state machine. We are part of the constitutional architecture of criminal justice. If we will not speak when the right to jury trial is being cut down in the name of efficiency, modernisation and victim-care rhetoric, then we will have failed not only our clients but the system itself. 

I still think about that 17-year-old in Liverpool Crown Court, watching jurors lean forward as a witness gave evidence, watching advocates fight over facts that would change somebody’s life, watching ordinary people perform their public duty with seriousness and care. What struck me then still strikes me now: juries are not an inconvenience to be managed out of existence. They are one of the few places where the public does not merely watch justice being done, but does it. Once you understand that, the present proposals do not look like reform. They look like surrender. 

Barristers need to take a stand on jury trials because, if we do not stand for them now, we may soon find that this ancient, historic and constitutional right has been whittled away to a memory — and that some of the most important decisions in a free society are no longer being made in the name of the public at all. A final thought – can you think of another public institution which commands near universal respect and confidence, amongst the voting public, as trial by jury? No, neither can I.

Monday, 30 March 2026

WEIRD Is Not Wonderful

There are those who rave about Ayn Rand, there are those who worship at the altar of Leo Strauss, there are those who still think that Samuel P. Huntington was onto something, and they will all be coked up together at Liz Truss’s British CPAC, to which her three immediate predecessors should be invited to explain why they had had her in the Cabinet. But then there are the ones that just never quite caught on, being too much even for those boys. One might say, too weird.

Many of the most clannish cultures, for good or ill, have been profoundly Catholic, while several of the most notable scientists, including Darwin and Einstein, have been married to their cousins. The Middle America in which the phenomenon of the nuclear family was first identified was aggressively anti-Catholic, a trend that is reasserting itself within the Trump coalition, and was quite open to cousin marriage, as may yet also reassert itself. See also Britain in its industrial and imperial heyday. And so on. Back in 2020, this was the initial response of a professional historian, Nicholas Guyatt:

Why did Europe play such an outsized role in human history? A generation ago, the geographer Jared Diamond offered an elegant answer in his book Guns, Germs and Steel: Europeans weren’t smarter than non-Europeans, but geography and natural resources propelled Europe’s development in particular directions. Harvard professor Joseph Henrich is a fan of Diamond but his new book takes a different approach. Henrich was trained as an anthropologist but now describes himself as a “cultural evolutionist”. In the same way that Darwin’s theory explains how life follows pathways of adaptation via natural selection, cultural evolution proposes that human cultures develop and transmit deep understandings and values across generations. There are many pathways of cultural evolution, Henrich contends, and no single human culture. To better understand the world and Europe’s influence on it, we need to recognise that European culture is, in Henrich’s key acronym, “weird”: western, educated, industrialised, rich, democratic.

Henrich insists that “weird” values are culturally determined and specific rather than universal or natural. Specific doesn’t mean bad. As the book’s subtitle suggests, he credits the “firmware” of “weird” cultural evolution for many of the modern world’s core values: meritocracy, representative government, trust, innovation, even patience and restraint. These were the products not simply of Europe’s distinctive and highly unusual milieu, but of a narrow force many of us have forgotten: the prescriptions and hangups of the Christian church.

No historian would deny Christianity’s central role in the development of European society. But Henrich thinks that the church’s views on marriage and family life changed everything. He notes that Christianity was, from the middle ages at least, unusually hostile towards marriage between cousins. This produced a profound change in social organisation with sweeping effects on European culture. Kinship, a term that has always fascinated anthropologists, plays a key role in the book: it directs communities inwards, and makes them either apathetic or hostile towards those outside their particular clan.

Henrich argues that the church largely destroyed kinship within Europe between AD1000 and 1500, even as clan-based societies persisted across the rest of the planet. Within Europe, where prohibitions on cousin marriage forced people to marry beyond their families, “weird” culture became more receptive to strangers. Monasteries, universities, trading guilds, courts, stock markets, legislatures, coffee houses, newspapers – along with enterprise, trust and mobility – took root in the soil of “intergroup prosociality” created by the church’s edicts on marriage.Beyond Europe, non-“weird” people shared resources and a strong sense of local community but missed out on the forms of social dynamism and openness that supercharged Europe’s development.

Historians will find plenty to dispute here. Scholars of the medieval era will point out that the effects of the church’s “marriage and family programme” (the “MFP”, as Henrich inevitably terms it) were wildly uneven across time and space. Historians of the early modern era will note that the Protestant church was far less hostile to cousin marriage than its Catholic rival. (The Reformation received a crucial boost from Henry VIII’s determination to marry his former wife’s cousin.) Modern historians will argue that cousin marriage increased across many European societies in the 17th and 18th centuries before it was stigmatised again in the 19th century. They might also recall that, despite a consummately “weird” enthusiasm for innovation, both Charles Darwin and Albert Einstein married their first cousins. Historians of the world beyond Europe will find a thousand exceptions to Henrich’s confident stereotyping of non-“weird” societies as hopelessly retarded by kinship and its developmental dead-ends.

A casual reader may wonder how a book about the efflorescence of European culture could say next to nothing about racism, imperialism and environmental catastrophe – the undertow of individualism, market economics and representative government in Europe. “I’m not highlighting the very real and pervasive horrors of slavery, racism, plunder and genocide,” Henrich concedes in his final chapter. “There are plenty of books on those subjects.” But the omission is corrosive to his argument: not only because he presents “prosperity” and “innovation” rather than genocide and expropriation as the avatars of “weird” culture, but because Europeans failed to demonstrate “impersonal prosociality” when they ventured beyond Europe. If anything, empire’s violence and devastation suggests that the kinship thinking supposedly purged by Christianity re-emerged in Europeans’ new theories of race. White people were happy to dismiss the talent and futures of hundreds of millions of non-European people in the pursuit of financial gain, and to do so across centuries.

The Weirdest People seems grimly acclimatised to the darker aspects of our political present. Beyond Henrich’s claim that the world’s cultures developed on separate evolutionary pathways, an assertion that seems doggedly inattentive to the interpenetration of cultures and ideas across human history, he argues that “disparate societies” produce “a rich array of diverse cultural psychologies” marking out populations across generations, if not centuries. Deploying a battery of studies based on contemporary evidence – surveys of IBM employees in different countries, say, or the unpaid New York parking tickets of UN diplomats – Henrich suggests that corruption, impatience and even aggression are more common in non-“weird” cultures than in western society.

We shouldn’t blame non-“weird” individuals who fetishise revenge or indulge in nepotism, he implies: they’re burdened by centuries of kinship logic that sees little value in transparency and trust beyond one’s clan. Instead Henrich’s study chides western policymakers who take a unitary view of human nature when they promote democracy or the rule of law in the global south. Unless “weird” politicians and planners can reset the “firmware” of non-“weird” cultures, he warns, those societies can no more escape their cultural norms than we can ours.

I confess that when reading these pages I couldn’t help remembering that Donald Trump gave his son-in-law responsibility for Middle East peace, and that Boris Johnson has made his brother a lord. But cultural evolutionists trade in centuries and populations, so these distracting exceptions can presumably be drowned in an ocean of data.

What about non-European people who have settled in “weird” societies? Across virtually every sphere of human knowledge over the centuries, immigrants have carried ideas and practices that have fertilised cross-cultural thinking. This process seems mostly invisible to Henrich. Declining the opportunity to discuss the forms of syncretism and assimilation that define immigrant experience, he offers (tenuous) evidence that non-“weird” thinking endures among migrants across continents and generations. Citing high rates of cousin marriage among second-generation Pakistani immigrants to Britain, and lower levels of political activism among second-generation immigrants of colour across Europe, Henrich concludes that even growing up in a “weird” society can’t expunge the “dark matter” of one’s cultural-psychological lineage.

It was “weird” intellectuals who crafted the pseudo-science of race in the 18th century, and who spliced it with evolutionary theories to create new arguments about civilisation and white supremacy in the 19th. Henrich might wince at the suggestion that The Weirdest People in the World endorses social Darwinism, but in its emphasis on the supposedly discrete nature of culture and on the virtues of “weird” thinking and progress it comes uncomfortably close to doing just that.

And last year, once the thesis had had a chance to bed in, this was the verdict of postliberal royalty, Sebastian Milbank:

Are you WEIRD? If you have a Bachelor’s degree, speak English, and only see your cousins at Christmas, the answer is almost certainly yes, or so goes an argument forwarded by Joseph Henrich, author of The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous

WEIRD stands for “Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich and Democratic” and is used to describe a particular psychological “template” typical of modern Westerners. Drawing on historical and psychological research, Henrich argues that unlike most people in the world and premodernity, we are “highly individualistic, self-obsessed, control-oriented, nonconformist and analytical. We focus on ourselves — our attributes, accomplishments, and aspirations — over our relationships and social roles”.

A familiar, accurate and, to my eyes, not especially flattering portrait of modern Western man, archetypally plonked in front of the TV in his pants, scrolling through his phone and waiting for his pizza to arrive. But according to Henrich, these traits are the key to Western exceptionalism, the source of the scientific and industrial revolutions, not to mention modern democracy and human rights.

His bold thesis is that WEIRD psychology emerged in the middle ages, driven by the Catholic Church’s suppression of clannish kinship networks, and the emergence of nuclear families and a mobile workforce in Western Europe. These high trust societies with weaker family bonds led to greater innovation, equality before the law, meritocracy and democratic decision-making. Not only does the WEIRD hypothesis seem to unlock the secret of Western success, it also appears to explain the difficulties experienced by many non-Western, non-WEIRD societies in adopting modern institutions. Whereas WEIRD Westerners are trusting and non-conformist, much of the Global South remains deferential to family and tradition, but untrusting of strangers and abstract institutions. 

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Published in 2020, the book has come at just the right time to explain everything from the failure of the War on Terror to the difficulties of integrating asylum seekers. It’s quickly been seized on by a number of intellectual tendencies as a way of articulating the distinctiveness of the West, but outside of the conservative “family, faith and flag” narrative.

For libertarians and classical liberals, increasingly a disaffected wing of the right, suspicious of Islam, and angry at the “censorious left”, it’s a comforting narrative. It offers a conservative realism about the likelihood of rapid global democratisation and local integration of migrants, combined with an ultimate optimism about the triumph of Western ideas and institutions.

Yet it’s also gained traction amongst more trenchant nationalists and ethno-nationalists. Some, Le Pen style, have pivoted to defining liberalism as a distinct “national” cultural tradition peculiar to Western countries, one that must be defended by sometimes illiberal means. Others, going still further, see WEIRD psychology as aligned with racial phenotypes, a model of society that can only be enjoyed by the genetically gifted, a perspective Henrich himself rejects.

All of this reflects the strange ferment of the contemporary populist right, in which an increasingly civilisational sense is combined with an inability to agree on how Western civilisation is to be defined. All of this is happening at a time of radical globalisation, in which Silicon Valley has an outsize role in shaping public discourse online, both directly and indirectly. The populist right is caught between this civilisational instinct, which directs it to a more symbolic and spiritual reality, and an impulse towards an amoral, hard-edged materialism and rationalism.

The payout of this contradiction is typically a nostalgia for yesterday’s liberalism, and a patriotism on behalf of decadence. Western individualism and libertinism are recast as a civilisational strength by this rationalist Right, which seeks to rigorously patrol the walls of our permissive paradise.

This is reflective of a new demographic of right-winger. Alienated from a progressive-dominated academy, especially in the humanities, many of them are STEM graduates, and a number of them work in the valley. They are young men typically aged 20–40. Their earnings vary, but many are in professional jobs, yet struggle to save, buy a house or get a girlfriend. They are likely to be active online. They are self-educated, especially in history, literature and philosophy. They listen to podcasts, they read books, almost all of it popular non-fiction.

Their political instincts vary widely from freewheeling libertarianism, all the way to Trumpian or Faragian populism. They’re attracted to material and genetic explanations for criminality and life chances and technological solutions to climate change. They are generally free speech absolutists, and even those who are relatively centrist consume irreverent, offensive and politically incorrect content.

Henrich is of an earlier generation, but he’s exactly the kind of author that appeals to the rationalist right. He writes the sort of ambitious global narratives that historians in the academy disdain, and combines a degree in anthropology with one in engineering. The bias towards mechanistic modes of thinking is everywhere in the book. The “circuitry” of our brains has been “rewired”. When discussing religion Henrich explains that “cultural evolution will seek out back doors in our minds by locating glitches in our psychological firewalls”. Our belief systems are “cognitive bugs” which can be adapted into “potent social technologies”.

It shouldn’t take too much deep reflection to see the inherent limitations and problems that pertain to describing a biological organ (a human brain) as a faultily wired circuit board. Nor should we single out Henrich here.

There is a general cultural forgetting of the West’s actual intellectual tradition. An often arrogant, inward-looking and self-serving academic class are terrible evangelists for it, using their superior education to obfuscate their subject areas and deconstruct inherited wisdom. Meanwhile rationalist writers, often acting with both admirable humility and ambition, are infinitely more appealing, even though their approach is often hopelessly amateurish and partial.

What is being missed out? Henrich is a gifted scholar, and he makes powerful, even intuitive use of psychological research. But it is obvious he has no significant grasp of philosophy or intellectual history, and fails to appreciate its significance. Embracing evolutionary psychology, he de-emphasises agency, posing cultural change as the product of random features passing through a Darwinian filter. According to Henrich, no Western society “set out” to be WEIRD; rather, by an accident of history, organisations and cultures with WEIRD traits emerge, and outcompete groups that lack them.

As a result, the conscious evolution of ideas is largely ignored, along with the full range of perspectives on “WEIRD” ideas. Every hoary progressive myth of the 19th century, from Weber’s Protestant work ethic to the Whig view of history is resurrected, without any awareness of why they were killed off in the first place. The popularity of these “naive” narrative works is a symptom of a culture that lacks a core canon of knowledge, and fails to produce well-rounded thinkers.

For anyone with a serious grasp of medieval or early modern history, the idea that Western society was then defined by “individualism” and hostility to inherited tradition comes as a considerable surprise. Again, one gets the sense of what Henrich is getting at — that a distinct psychology with more emphasis on the individual and willingness to embrace new ideas is emerging — but as with the mechanistic brain, false ideas are being imported by using imprecise, poorly chosen terms.

The power of the WEIRD hypothesis is that it’s undoubtedly picking up on something real. The psychological research is impressive. The argument that Western culture has a unique psychology, not universalisable to every group, is an important insight. And the idea that this distinctiveness can be traced to the Middle Ages and Latin Christendom is certainly persuasive. But the gaps, once you notice them, are glaring.

Forget, for a moment, the inadequacy of “individualism”, however nascent, as an explanation of 14th or 17th century European difference. Let’s consider an unquestionably modern European example. 20th century Europeans should, by his argument, be very WEIRD indeed, yet much of the early 20th century was consumed by the rise of radically collectivist states, from the Soviet Union to Nazi Germany.

In the opening pages of The Weirdest People in the World, Henrich not only singles out Germany, but analyses literacy rates based on historic Protestant affiliation, showing an extremely strong correlation. One could just as easily link electoral support for the Nazi party with those same patterns of Protestant populations. Why did the WEIRD Lutherans flock to a movement that suspended all individual rights and sought to exterminate the stranger, whilst “clannish” German Catholics were more likely to vote for democracy and toleration?

Why, for that matter do groups at the extreme end of a shift towards individualism end up, across Europe, supporting totalitarian communist or fascist parties and governments?

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It’s a mystery that Henrich never addresses, and indeed there is a great deal about the modern world that radically complicates his thesis. The mores of our contemporary English-speaking world (individualism, consumerism and so on), and its signal achievements (economic growth, democracy, toleration, etc.) are assumed as the pinnacle of evolutionary history, and are imposed retrospectively on radically different historical societies.

What he fails to consider is that radical individualism might be, in historical terms, an extremely recent development, really only emerging in the 1960s, and reaching its peak within the past two decades. Likewise, for all his thorough research in many areas, there is much missing when it comes to recent psychological developments.

Whilst he correctly identifies the uniqueness of Western voluntary associations, and the unusually high levels of trust in Western societies, he is entirely unable to account for both of these trends going into reverse over past decades. In Britain, the number of young adults with one or fewer close friends went from 7 per cent to almost 20 per cent between 2012 and 2021, a trend repeated in America.

Trust in institutions has declined across the West for decades, and the freedom of children to roam and play — an excellent proxy for interpersonal trust — has collapsed in the same period. Shrinking levels of criminality, another supposed unique feature of WEIRD cultures, went into reverse in America during the 1960s to 1980s, at the peak of the dissolution of traditional norms.

All of this points to what the rationalist Right is missing — what really makes us WEIRD, historically, is not individualism, but corporatism. The great historic shift from incestuous clannishness to nuclear families and the rule of law involved not a narrowing of the mental horizon to individual interest, but rather a radical expansion of affections and duties.

Henrich is contradictory on this point, constantly stressing the “declining importance of relationships”, whilst celebrating the proliferation of voluntary associations. The contradiction emerges because of his attempt to reconcile modern individualism with the historically successful psychology of the West. He misses the obvious, or perhaps just the unthinkable.

What Henrich and his followers are picking up on is an increasingly hobbled, psychologically crippled West, working with only half of its brain, out of touch with its own identity. The promise of perpetual prosperity and security, linked by a wonderfully closed circuit to our self-indulgent individualism, is a lie already collapsing all around us.

The true WEIRDness of the West rests not in a narrow individualist mindset — a kind of civilisational autism — but rather in our genius for reconciling holistic and analytic, group and individual, tradition and novelty. From the ancient polis, in which individual glory was reconciled with civic belonging, to the Christian humanism that located the dignity of man in self-sacrificial love, our civilisation achieved an equilibrium between the extremes of collectivism and individualism.

When that balance is lost, the dream of the Christian West, with its extraordinary material power and massive social organisation, can fast become a nightmare, whether that’s the horrors of totalitarianism or the soul-crushing isolation of contemporary atomisation. If the rationalist right want to be truly civilisational thinkers, they must accept that the West today is not weirdly wonderful, but grotesquely disfigured.

To Improve Social Cohesion?

Social solidarity is an expression of personal responsibility, personal responsibility is protected by social solidarity, international solidarity is an expression of national sovereignty, and national sovereignty is protected by international solidarity. Equality and diversity must include economic equality and class diversity, regional equality and regional diversity, the equal sovereignty of diverse states, and equal respect for diverse opinions within a framework of free speech and other civil liberties, including due process of law with the presumption of innocence, requiring that conviction be beyond reasonable doubt. Eradicating cousin marriage is not inimical to any of this, but it is hardly near the top of the list of priorities. Kemi Badenoch, however, would not like the things that were.

Cousin marriage is unconditionally legal in 18 of the United States plus the District of Columbia, and conditionally legal in a further six. Proponents of a ban on it here should ask themselves why there was not one already. There did used to be. Until the Reformation, the Late Roman ban on marriage to the fourth degree of consanguinity had obtained, extended to affinity because in marriage, “the two shall become one flesh”. Catholic Canon Law has therefore always banned cousin marriage, at one time to the seventh degree, although with possibilities of dispensation since the ban was not in the Bible. Such dispensations did the Hapsburgs no good.

The legality of marriages between first cousins is a product of the Reformation. Its prevalence until the First World War, and as recently as that, was a badge of Protestant honour, since Henry VIII had legalised it when he had wanted to marry Catherine Howard, who was Anne Boleyn’s first cousin, and since although William and Mary never had children, the intention had been that they would, and they were first cousins whose marriage would not ordinarily have been possible in the Catholic Church. Does the Orange Order now wish to ban a marriage such as William of Orange’s? Would the four stripes of Northern Irish Unionist in the House of Commons vote for that ban?

This seems to be a Two Cultures thing. Although Charles and Emma Darwin were first cousins who had 10 children, and although Albert and Elsa Einstein were both maternal first cousins and paternal second cousins such that her maiden name was Einstein, the mere thought of this practice is profoundly shocking to scientists. But to people formed by the study of literature and history, then, while that is where it belongs, that is where you will find it routinely. Mainstream British society was educated out of it, and not very long ago, so that can obviously be done. South Asians are hardly unreceptive to education. Between 1979 and 1981, the makers and viewers of To the Manor Born took it as read that Audrey fforbes-Hamilton’s late husband had been her cousin. Although Coronation Street does not, both Emmerdale and EastEnders still feature such arrangements between white characters whose families were supposed to have lived in Emmerdale or Walford since time out of mind, and that seems to raise no eyebrows.

Anglo-Saxons and Scotch-Irish still regularly marry their first cousins in several of the parts of the United States that were most likely to vote for Donald Trump, and they did so as a matter of course into the very recent past. But if the argument is that this was something that certain other ethnic groups did, then it is probably better to treat it as a health education matter rather than a criminal one. After all, that was what worked with everyone else. Nineteenth-century novels are full of marriages between first cousins as the most normal thing in the world, and Queen Victoria and Prince Albert were first cousins. By descent from that marriage, the King’s parents were third cousins, while they were also second cousins once removed through a different line. But the King is a last hurrah of that sort of thing. His mother was one of the least inbred monarchs ever, and his son and grandson are not at all inbred. Educate people, and it will mostly or entirely die out. That worked with everyone else. Even the Royal Family.

Yet since the intention would apparently be to prevent genetic defects, which is not the only reason to oppose cousin marriage, then it would be pointless without the criminalisation of sex between first cousins. So be it, but that seems highly unlikely, since we have already raised the age of marriage to two years above the age of consent, a literally preposterous arrangement. Pity poor Imam Ashraf Osmani of Northampton, who in January was handed a suspended sentence of 15 weeks’ imprisonment for having performed a nikah, which has no legal status whatever, so that two 16-year-olds could have a perfectly lawful sexual relationship without sinning. The second time as farce.

Something similar applies to polygamy. As you could marry your cousin my nikah, with no legal standing, and the two of you could then have children perfectly legally as you could have done anyway, so you can take three more wives alongside your legal one by nikah, with no legal standing, and have children with all of them. Or you could take all four wives by nikah alone. In fact, any man can have children with four different women simultaneously if they will let him. Doing so with two, often in arrangements that lasted decades, has never been especially uncommon. Whatever else it may be, it is certainly not un-British.