Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Teach Them The Trade, Then Give Them The Yard

Paul Knaggs writes:

This August, a few hundred young people in England will collect results in a qualification that no longer accepts students. The Onsite Construction T Level has been closed to new entrants. Uptake was limited and demand was judged insufficient, so the September 2024 intake became the last. 

Read that again slowly. A nation that cannot build enough houses, that cannot find enough bricklayers, roofers or groundworkers, has just shut down the technical qualification for building houses. Not because the work dried up. Because the pipeline into it was too thin to justify keeping the door open. 

That is the country Andy Burnham inherited. And it is why the announcement he made this week deserves something the Tribune does not hand out often: credit.

WHAT HE HAS ACTUALLY SAID 

Speaking at a train manufacturing site in Derby, Burnham said: “We’ve had a system built for too long around the university route and it sends a message to some young people that they’re some kind of second-class citizens, and it’s just not right. 

“They need an education system that works for them as well, that offers a path to all young people, that’s balanced between academic and technical.” 

The prime minister said he was “on a mission” to reduce the number of young people not in education, employment or training – known as “Neet” – but declined to put a target date on his ambition. 

“The trend is rising at the moment, so the first thing I’ve got to do is to stop that rise,” he said. 

“It’s hard to put a firm date on the moment when you can say there are fewer than now.” 

From September 2028, pupils in England will be able to take technical education pathways from the age of fourteen. From Year 10, students will combine core academic subjects such as English and maths with technical education linked to the jobs available where they live, paired with work experience and connections to local employers. Ofsted will change how it inspects and measures schools so that high quality technical provision counts for something. The Prime Minister framed it as ending the idea that only the academic route earns respect, telling young people they can choose “construction, coding or classics” and be valued either way. 

The backdrop is a NEET figure now above one million. A million young people not in education, not in employment, not in training. Not idle. Unused. 

The Ofsted change matters more than the headline. School league tables have been the engine of the problem for thirty years. A head teacher judged on Progress 8 and university destinations has every incentive to shove a child towards A levels whether or not they belong there, and no incentive whatsoever to build a workshop. Change what you measure and you change what schools do. That is the one lever in this announcement that is genuinely load bearing.

WE HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR YEARS 

In 2021, this publication asked how twenty pence per day was supposed to help the children in our patch catch up, and made the argument that education policy in Britain has been built almost entirely around the cleverest poor children and almost not at all around the rest. Maurice Glasman put the collapse in terms that still sting: in 1972 there were twice as many apprenticeships as undergraduates, and now there are ten times more undergraduates than apprenticeships. 

That inversion was not an accident of the market. It was policy. Polytechnics became universities. Manual labour was assumed, by people who had never done any, to be on its way out. The professional class redesigned the education system in its own image and then expressed surprise that the sons and daughters of the heartlands did not thrive in it. 

The 1944 settlement promised a technical tier alongside the grammar and the secondary modern. It was barely built. Every attempt since has followed the same arc. 

THE GRAVEYARD OF GOOD INTENTIONS 

Britain does not lack ideas about technical education. It has a cemetery full of them. 

Sir Mike Tomlinson reported in 2004 and recommended a single unified diploma framework covering academic and vocational learning, ending the two tier settlement outright. The Blair government rejected the core proposal and kept only the 14 to 19 diplomas, which were introduced and then wound down when the coalition took office in 2011. Sir David Bell, a former Chief Inspector, has called that refusal the greatest missed opportunity in English education since the war. 

Then came T Levels. Six years in, the numbers tell their own story. 27,446 learners started a T Level in 2025 to 2026, up from 25,508 the year before. Against that, 1.5 per cent of sixteen and seventeen year olds in England were studying T Levels in 2023, compared with 45.2 per cent doing A levels. Around a quarter of the 2023 cohort did not complete the course. 

Twenty-six years of ministerial speeches about parity of esteem have produced a technical route used by one child in sixty-six. 

So the honest question about Burnham’s announcement is not whether the intention is good. The intention has always been good. The question is what makes 2028 different from 2008, and from 2020, and from 1944. 

THE CASE AGAINST, PUT FAIRLY 

The objection deserves a proper hearing, because it is not stupid and it is not made in bad faith. 

Sorting children into tracks at fourteen has a history, and it is not a happy one. The eleven plus branded children failures before puberty and the damage followed them for life. Michael Young saw it at the time and spent his career building ladders back up for the people it discarded. Move the sorting age to fourteen and you have moved it three years, not abolished it. 

Worse, everyone knows which children get sorted where. The technical pathway will not be filling up with the sons of Cabinet ministers. It will fill up with our children, in our towns, and if it turns out to be a holding pen rather than a route, we will have volunteered a generation for it. 

Then there is the delivery problem, which is dull and decisive. Colleges cannot recruit specialist teachers, because anyone qualified to teach electrical installation can earn considerably more installing electrics. The funding uplift for providers moving to T Levels was cut from ten per cent to five. You cannot conjure workshops, lathes and qualified instructors out of a press release, and no government since the war has been willing to pay what they cost. 

All of that is true. None of it is an argument for the status quo. It is an argument that the announcement is necessary and nowhere near sufficient, and that the missing piece is not in the classroom at all. 

THE COUNCIL YARD IS THE MISSING HALF 

Here is what has been wrong with every technical education reform in living memory. Each one has tried to fix the supply of skills while leaving the demand for them entirely in private hands. 

You can teach a sixteen year old in Salford to wire a consumer unit. Whether there is a firm within twenty miles willing to take him on, train him properly and pay him decently is a matter over which the Department for Education has precisely no control. That is why the construction T Level died. Not because the skill was unwanted, but because the route from the qualification to a life was too uncertain for young people to gamble two years on. 

Which brings us to the thing this publication has argued for since 2024, and which Burnham has stopped just short of. 

Councils used to build. Direct Labour Organisations put up the estates, maintained them, and trained the tradespeople who did it. Then the Local Government, Planning and Land Act 1980 forced DLOs to compete for their own construction and maintenance work, and the Local Government Act 1988 extended compulsory tendering across local authority services. Britain became the only country in Europe where competitive tendering for local government services was compelled by law. The yards were broken up, the apprenticeships went with them, and the training of Britain’s tradespeople was handed to a contracting market that trains only what it must. 

The bill for that has now arrived. The CITB forecasts that construction needs an average of 41,200 additional workers every year between 2026 and 2030, warning that too few people are entering, too many experienced workers are leaving, and that the strain falls directly on housing, infrastructure and retrofit. 

So build the council homes, end the Right to Buy that hollowed out the stock, and bring back the council yard alongside them. 

A local authority building and maintaining its own housing has permanent, predictable, publicly controlled demand for exactly the trades the new pathways would teach. It can guarantee the apprenticeship at the end, which no white paper can. It can pay the rate, which no charity can. The surplus from rents goes back into services, parks and community centres rather than into a landlord’s second home. And a fourteen year old choosing the technical route would be choosing something with a visible destination at the end of it, which is the only thing that has ever made a vocational qualification credible to a working class family. 

That is joined up thinking. Skills policy and housing policy and industrial policy are the same policy, and they have been filed in separate cabinets for forty years.

WHAT TO DEMAND 

Burnham has opened a door. Three things determine whether anyone walks through it. 

Funding attached to the announcement, published, ring-fenced, and sufficient to buy workshops and pay instructors what the trade pays them. Without it this is a rebadging exercise. 

A guaranteed destination. Every technical pathway must terminate in a named apprenticeship or job, and where the private market will not supply one, the public sector must. Council yards, direct labour, retrofit teams, and the maintenance of the homes we are about to build. 

And an honest answer on the timetable. September 2028 means the first cohort sits nothing until summer 2030, well past the next general election. A government that means it starts the funding now and starts the yards now, rather than leaving the delivery to whoever is standing there afterwards. 

We have been told for eighty years that the technical route is coming and that it will be respected. It has never been respected, because respect in this country is measured in wages and security, not in ministerial adjectives. Give a young person a trade and nowhere to practise it and you have not opened a door. You have shown them the wall it was painted on. 

Teach them the trade. Then give them the yard.

Elon’s England?


When work follows you everywhere, how do you switch off? You can, if you wish, hide from your emails by spending £500 a night on a remote luxury retreat for the digitally frazzled in the Canaries, complete with designer bed linen and no phone signal. But those in the know take their holidays from the internet closer to home: camping on Britain’s eastern coastline. If you know where to go (no, I’m not telling you) you can find bucolic rural surroundings, sandy beaches, honesty-box raspberries and such superbly bad network coverage that doomscrolling just isn’t an option.

It’s often struck me that camping life of this kind is perhaps the Platonic form of a certain type of postwar English sociality. Amenities are frugal, but pleasantly so. You have neighbours, but not too close. (It’s an unwritten rule of camping that you don’t pitch your tent right next to someone else’s unless you absolutely have to.) People say hello, but socialising is optional. Everyone’s kids play together, only vaguely supervised. The dogs are generally well-behaved. And, importantly, it’s high-trust by definition: after all, you can’t really lock a tent.

In the absence of any phone signal for doomscrolling, I took for holiday reading a forthcoming book on English pastoral. In Fields of Green traces this literary trope of ideal rural landscapes as a response to the development of modern England. Its author, AndrĂ© Gushurst-Moore, argues that England has always needed “pastoral” as a literary mode where we can take refuge from upheaval, technology, and social fracture in the temporary Arcadia of England’s rolling green hinterlands.

That’s certainly how it felt to take a holiday in a grassy field, without handheld access to the relentless rage and demoralisation fodder online. The feeling of implicit trust in the campsite was also as restful as the lack of phone reception. But this year, I found my peace troubled by a nagging fear that environments of this kind might be, in some fundamental way, under threat.

From my tent you couldn’t drive far without passing signs for the nearby town of Great Yarmouth, Rupert Lowe’s constituency and heart of the Restore Britain movement: the epicentre of an angry, anxious sense to the effect that Britain used to be a high-trust country but isn’t any more. That is: Britain in general used to be more like my East Anglian campsite, but is growing increasingly hostile, fractious, and genuinely dangerous.

Restore output typically blames this phenomenon on immigration. And it’s true that there is evidence linking illegal migration in particular both with other kinds of criminal activity, as well as the sort of friction that arises when incompatible social norms come suddenly into collision. But is the sense of decaying cohesion really just the fault of foreigners? Were we really always a “high-trust” society, until those immigrants came along and ruined it? I’m not sure we were. Rather, that sense of comparative national unity marked both the culmination, and end, of “Great Britain” in her imperial pomp.

If, in Gushurst-Moore’s telling, pastoral has always served as idealised respite from a more turbulent real-world England, that grittier England is also to be found in literary history. In prewar literature in particular, this England comes across as a vigorous, exciting, but not particularly “high-trust” place. Defoe’s 1722 Moll Flanders recounts the first-person narrative of a career criminal. Dickens’s 1839 Oliver Twist is set almost entirely in London’s criminal underworld. Plenty of other literary works detail the rampant fraud, theft, violence, and criminality of early modern and Georgian Britain. It was, in fact, predominantly the Victorians who set the nation on a path toward the centralisation, order, and robust public mores that would eventually produce the “high-trust” Britain, that now feels as though it persists only in rural hinterlands and middle-class enclaves.

As certain of their own correctness in every respect as they were dedicated to large-scale infrastructure, technological innovation, improving the morals of the poor, and expanding British dominion to every corner of the earth, the Victorians established the road patrols that ended the highway robbery of the Moll Flanders era. They also founded the police force that tackled the pervasive criminality of Oliver Twist’s London. And they built the factories and schools that, for better or worse, drilled generations of working-class Britons into regimented assembly-line work punctuated by shift-end bells.

The English pastoral dream grew more intense, and was more desperately clung to, as real-life Great Britain industrialised, stripping coal-fields, belching smoke into the sky, and unrolling canals, railways, and roads across the landscape. Evocations of deep England such as The Wind in the Willows (1908) were, in this sense, a product of their own antithesis in the cities and suburbs — where, by the time Kenneth Grahame wrote it, most British people lived.

The historian AJP Taylor observed, in his Oxford History of England, that “Until August 1914 a sensible, law-abiding Englishman could pass through life and hardly notice the existence of the state beyond the post office and the policeman”. But that fateful August, just six years after The Wind in the Willows was published, the world of order, industry, and moral purpose the Victorians built came to its climax, and also the beginning of its end.

When war broke out in 1914 every facet of Victorian innovation — the factories, the administration, the large-scale coordination of workforces, the patriotism — came together in a whole-of-society war effort. The English novelist Mary Augusta Ward described this phenomenon in 1916: an enormous, coordinated mobilisation that reached into every corner of English society and geography, and re-oriented every part of it to supporting the same cause.

After 1918, that regulatory Leviathan never really went away again. With the Second World War it expanded still further, adding blackout rules, rations, the mass evacuation of children from city centres, and a host of other emergency measures. By and large, everyone pulled together, under the organising moral focus of existential threat. Those wartime habits, and the cultures they produced, persisted well into the long 20th-century peace that followed, legitimating the establishment of a nationwide welfare state, National Health Service, and much else we now take for granted.

This is why we’re still obsessed with the wars: they really did create modern Britain. Wartime Britain also represented the pinnacle of that “high-trust” culture whose disappearance is now routinely blamed on immigration. But the Victorians, who turned a relatively lawless Moll Flanders Britain into that orderly, industrial empire of our recent past, understood something we’ve chosen to forget in the decades since: that order always implies a measure of violence.

Periodically, when Elon Musk decides, in his wisdom, to intervene in British politics, he likes to imagine all of Britain and her inhabitants as basically hobbits: bucolic, small-minded denizens of rural Arcadia, desperately vulnerable to predators. But this is both wrong and unhelpful. Yes, Tolkien’s Shire is one of the most famous evocations of that pastoral idyll. But historically, Britons were the despoilers of the Shire as well as its hobbit inhabitants. The Romantic spirit of Wordsworth, and the Arts and Crafts movement led by John Ruskin, harked back to a mythic, rural deep England; meanwhile, technologists and visionaries in the real-world 19th-century Britain had little compunction about driving roads and railways through those fields of green in pursuit of “improvement”.

This people produced Cecil Rhodes as well as John Ruskin. They invented steam engines, sterilisation, and vaccination, not to mention a host of lethal weapons. They imposed law and order on Britain, routinely resorting to corporal punishment, hanging, or deportation. They did the same to a great many other geographies besides — some of which retain the bones of our common law to this day, even while agitating for reparations. Even education was delivered with unembarrassed, righteous ferocity: the tyrannical, pedantic Mr Gradgrind, in Dickens’s novel Hard Times, vividly illustrates the methods used to impose knowledge and manners on the children of Victorian Britain.

By contrast, since the two wars Britain has seemed determined to hold fast to our legacy of wartime solidarity, order, and peace, built on those brusque Victorian foundations — only now, without ever needing to be tough. It’s as though we want Elon to be right; as if, were everyone only to play by the rules, all of England might be forever Arcadia. But instead, it’s allowed that culture of order and common purpose to soften, by degrees, to the point where its goods are rapidly evaporating. We congratulate ourselves on having abandoned “Gradgrindian” teaching, while teachers collapse under the stress of bad behaviour in the classrooms and kids learn nothing. Local policing is nonexistent. Rules are only for suckers. Our border enforcers hand out visa-sponsorship licences to vape shops, or Islamic centres allegedly linked to the Iranian state.

But the decay in our capacity to enforce even the rules we have is as much, or more, a cause of immigration as its effect. And, pace Restore Britain, plenty of the rule-flouting is home-grown. Just recently, for example, the BBC reported on a huge rise in hare coursing, a deeply medieval-sounding illegal bloodsport, in which participants coordinate online to mass-trespass onto farmland and gamble on sight-hounds chasing hares across open fields. Such events are reportedly often linked to wider criminal gang activity; but there’s nothing to suggest the gangs themselves are anything but British. They just aren’t doing the postwar “high-trust” thing.

Fifty dead hares dumped outside your country shop hardly evokes Arcadia. Nor, as the secessionist villagers of Piddington in Oxfordshire recently realised, does the prospect of having your community of 400 imminently outnumbered three-to-one by 1,250 male asylum seekers at a nearby military base.

It’s understandable that, after the two wars, no one wanted ever to live through anything so horrible again. The result was a desire both to preserve Britain’s war-forged social cohesion, and also to reject every trace of the toughness, and willingness to follow through with violence, that many blamed for the catastrophe of war. There followed some halcyon decades of peace with very little violence — but those decades are now, palpably, at an end.

And yet the mistake wasn’t to dream of Arcadia as such. It was imagining (as Elon Musk still apparently does) that all of England could be preserved in a state of bucolic green. That’s never what these islands have been. The best we ever managed was preserving some pastoral space amid the upheaval.

In the aftermath of our decades-long holiday from enforcing the rules, it’s going to take more than just being nice to strangers while camping to sustain this — or the postwar utopia of rules. We also need the piratical adventurousness of the Moll Flanders era, and the ambition, toughness, and self-belief of the Victorian one. Perhaps even, if we haven’t the space to jail criminals, we should do as they did. (It would be popular.)

The price of some pastoral idyll is accepting that every such peaceful community has an edge. In the 21st century, you can’t hide from the internet forever — even, as those poor hares found out, in the countryside. And especially in the internet age, no space of “high trust” will stay that way for long, unless we stand ready to defend it.

Do You Really Want To Hurt Me?

No self-respecting 65-year-old would call himself "Boy George". And listen a second time to his latest release? Not even if you chained me to a radiator and beat me. George O'Dowd is "Buddhist in my aspirations, Catholic in my complications". But that is the wrong way round.

The Buryats, with the Chechens noted as exceptionally cruel Russian fighters in Ukraine, are followers of the Dalai Lama, who has never condemned either the invasion of Afghanistan or the invasion of Iraq. For more on Buddhism as no more a religion of peace than Islam (no less so, but no more), then see Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Mongolia, Japan, Thailand, and beyond. In fact, an examination of the relevant texts shows that violence in general and war in particular are fundamental to Buddhism. Tibet is particularly striking for this.

A rare balanced treatment of Buddhism and violence was broadcast in August 2013. The subject is also addressed in great detail here. Suella Braverman would indeed press the nuclear button. It is the Catholic Church that permits either Christian pacifism, a minority view at least since very early but never condemned, or the just war doctrine to which most of us adhere and which the present Pope has explained may well be inapplicable in the circumstances of contemporary warfare. Nuclear weapons are not compatible with either. Nor is what Israel is doing in Gaza, in Lebanon, in the West Bank, or, with the United States, in Iran.

Very Warm, Indeed

Spain’s most effective weapons against wildfires are its Kamov Ka-32 helicopters, but sanctions prevent the supply of spare parts from Russia and the attention of Russian maintenance technicians, so the fleet is grounded as the country burns. Yet heatwave or no heatwave, it was snowing in London. Since Andy Burnham dressed up as Volodymyr Zelensky to greet him, all visitors from abroad should insist on the same, devising ludicrous national costumes for the purpose.

In an attempt at formal merger between the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran, Zelensky accuses Russia of providing Iran with satellite imagery of American bases in the Gulf. Donald Trump says that he will look into the matter and ask Vladimir Putin directly. Now remember how, and by whom, Jeremy Corbyn was mocked and worse when he suggested asking Putin whether Russia had had any involvement in the still unexplained events at Salisbury in 2018. Where are the Skripals?

Monday, 27 July 2026

Labour Needs A Rural Reset


Keir Starmer is out, Andy Burnham is in. Our new Prime Minister, in his first speech in the role, has promised a “circuit breaker for Britain” and made pointed references to “wrong turns” made in the 1980s. So while Burnham gets to work organising his new government, one might ask what kind of circuit breaker he will be offering to rural communities. What “wrong turns” does he consider have been made in the countryside?

He would do well to ask his predecessor. As Sir Keir sipped a valedictory pint of London Pride after handing over the keys to No. 10, he doubtless found himself wondering where it all went wrong. Perhaps he turned to his colleague, the former Chancellor, and said “we didn’t do great with that farm tax, did we?” He would be right in saying so.

Rural affairs do matter for the Labour party. More than 100 of their MPs — a quarter of their total — represent rural constituencies. This isn’t a coincidence. The fact that there are so many rural Labour seats (antipathy towards the Conservatives aside) is thanks to the overtures which Starmer made to rural people ahead of the 2024 General Election, which saw record numbers in the countryside vote Labour.

It seems almost like black comedy now, but turn the clock back two years and we had the first Labour leader to attend an NFU conference, a leader who had written for Country Life promising to “roll up his sleeves” and renew “the bond of respect” between countryside and politicians. A leader who said he did “care deeply about the countryside” and knew that “losing a farm is not like losing any other business”, one who — crucially — recognised the problems created by the fact that “more and more decisions that affect communities are taken by people who not only live miles away, but also have little empathy for their challenges”.

But, as we all know, that’s not what happened. More than a few “wrong turns” were made. Rural communities were hit by a barrage of policies and proposals such as the Family Farm Tax, business rates hikes for rural pubs and enterprises, and a crackdown on game shooting and trail hunting. No wonder many have accused the government of a “war on the countryside”. Rural people have stood up in droves to protest against these proposals, with tractor protests covering newspaper front pages and more than 91,000 people writing to the government to oppose the ban on trail hunting — the greatest response to a Defra consultation in history.

Of course, it never had to be this way. A great many rural people took Starmer’s words at face value. It is hard to see what reason the government had for pursuing such attacks on rural communities. Policies like the Family Farm Tax provided a negligible gain for the Treasury, damaged Starmer’s reputation in the countryside and wasted huge amounts of political capital. Facing enormous dissatisfaction within the Parliamentary Labour Party he had to announce his resignation.

Andy Burnham inherits this legacy — a historic low point in relations between government and countryside. He certainly would do well to try to fix it. Labour’s numerous rural MPs have already been dragged through the mud, being whipped to support policies deeply unpopular among their constituents — they will be reluctant to have the same thing happen again. It would be unwise for the new Prime Minister to alienate a significant portion of the PLP. Already, one anonymous rural Labour MP told the press that Mr Burnham “has a problem” if he “lacks anyone around him who understands farming and rural communities”, adding that he “doesn’t strike me as someone who’s interested” in countryside affairs.

Mr Burnham has already highlighted, however, that he has some understanding of rural issues. In his speech in Manchester at the end of last month he spoke of giving “powers for our rural economies to address issues specific to them”, stated that food and farming are a critical sector, announced that he would reform business rates to support pubs and talked about “protecting more green spaces from development”. He has also previously made comments about needing to revisit the Family Farm Tax. Is this, then, “place first, not party first”?

Much could be indicated about Burnham’s rural policy direction from those he has chosen to appoint as Defra ministers. Countryside campaigners called for one of the many rural Labour MPs to have a ministerial position within the department — and Burnham has listened. Jennifer Riddell-Carpenter, who was previously Chair of the Labour Rural Research Group — a group of rural Labour MPs, has indeed been given such an appointment. Until we see policy, however, it’s impossible to know.

If Mr Burnham is serious about making politics work for everyone, rural and urban, he cannot simply fall into the same trap of repeating promises already made and already broken. That path leads to more frustration and hurt among rural communities, more frustration and resentment among a quarter of his MPs, as well as vast amounts of unhelpful coverage in the media. That is no path to a fruitful and long-lasting premiership.

Mr Burnham has the chance to reset relations with the countryside but that can only be done by legislating for, and with, rural communities, not against them. For the countryside to thrive, it needs support — not restrictions and increased burdens. The countryside is no sideshow and if Mr Burnham wishes to be a successful Prime Minister he needs it on his side. The opportunity is there for him — will he take it?

An Inconsistency In Burnham’s Approach

Any serious action on social care, or on public transport, or on rough sleeping, or on housebuilding, or on energy prices, or on the ongoing catastrophic collapse of the very water supply, would call for stronger and more active central government, not for further devolution to the Conservative and Reform UK figures who were at Andy Burnham’s table in Manchester. It has taken them a week, but the great and the good are beginning to see the point, so that Ross Clark writes:

Keen to keep up the momentum on his big (or not so big) ideas, Andy Burnham will apparently announce on Friday that in future some revenue from income tax will be distributed directly to local government so that they, rather than Whitehall, can choose how to spend the money.

In Britain, only around 5 per cent of total government revenue is collected by local government, which is markedly lower than many other countries. Councils will reportedly not be allowed to vary the rate of income tax, as the SNP has done disastrously in Scotland (its 3 per cent supplementary rate on income tax has cost it £20 million this year according to Dan Neidle, expert on fiscal policy). HMRC will simply give them a slice of existing revenues. What is not clear is whether this is extra money – and therefore yet one more unfunded spending commitment – or whether it is just a redistribution of revenues, in which case what is central government going to stop funding in future?

But there does seem to be something of an inconsistency in Burnham’s approach. At the same time as he is trying to devolve money and power to the regions and localities he is planning to create a National Care Service. That is a policy which pulls heavily in the opposite direction. In this financial year, £42 billion out of £139 billion budgeted to be spent on public services by local authorities will go on adult and children’s care. This is money which at present is spent on locally-commissioned services, in accordance with local decision-making, but in future it seems that Burnham wants a national-run agency to make these spending decisions instead. We don’t have many details about this National Care Service, but if the ‘National’ in it means anything it surely means a centralisation of decision making, a concentration of power in Whitehall.

So does Burnham really believe in devolution or not? I suspect it won’t take him long to go off the whole idea. It is very easy when you are not part of national government to decry the centralisation of power and to demand more devolution. It was natural that Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, was keen on this. But Prime Minister Burnham may well be minded to see it differently when he is faced with devolving powers to councils of a different political colour.

Will he really want to give up power and money to Reform-led councils who might be minded to do all they can to thwart Labour party policies? Or spend their money hanging the St George Cross from every lamp post? David Cameron, it might be recalled, came into government with great enthusiasm for what he called ‘localism’. He went a lot cooler on it when it came to local authorities indulging their Nimby voters to block housing development, for example.

All this said, there is a good argument for hiving off children’s and adult care into a dedicated National Care Service and letting councils focus on roads, planning and other genuinely local stuff. At the moment there are bizarre consequences of localised care. A council might find its budget thrown off course by the birth of a single, high-needs child: the cost of care in such cases can run into hundreds of thousands of pounds a year. In order to stop councils trying to push responsibility onto a neighbouring council, the rules stipulate that care for a child born, say, in Birmingham, will always be paid for by Birmingham City Council, even if the child later goes to live in Newcastle. It’s hardly an efficient use of time for officials in Birmingham to have to assess the needs of a child who lives 200 miles away.

A National Care Service, therefore, is logical. It is just that it is not exactly consistent with a government which preaches devolution at every turn.

Cousin Marriage Empowers Donald Trump

Last month, Dr Luke Evans presented the First Cousins (Prohibited Relationships) Bill, which would ban not only marriage and civil partnerships between first cousins, but also sexual relations between them. At last, someone in this debate has got to the point. Cousin marriage is unconditionally legal in 18 of the United States plus the District of Columbia, and conditionally legal in a further six. Proponents of a ban here should ask themselves why there was not one already. There did used to be. Until the Reformation, the Late Roman ban on marriage to the fourth degree of consanguinity had obtained, extended to affinity because in marriage, “the two shall become one flesh”. Catholic Canon Law has therefore always banned cousin marriage, at one time to the seventh degree, although with possibilities of dispensation since the ban was not in the Bible.

Such dispensations did the Hapsburgs no good, but our own Royal Family would agree with NHS England that cousin marriage, not least where one party was an immigrant, had “benefits” that included “stronger extended family support systems and economic advantages”. Queen Victoria and the immigrant Prince Albert were first cousins. By descent from that marriage, the King’s parents were third cousins, while they were also second cousins once removed through a different line. Prince Philip was not only an immigrant, but an asylum-seeker who took refuge in Britain because he had relatives here, one of whom he married. Britain intervened militarily in his native land to restore his family to the Throne. Talk about bringing their troubles to our door.

It was not a happy marriage between Victoria and Albert’s granddaughter, Princess Victoria Melita of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, and their grandson, Grand Duke Ernest Louis of Hesse and by Rhine, although rather more successful was the union between Ernest Louis’s sister, Princess Irene of Hesse and by Rhine, and another of Victoria and Albert’s grandsons, Prince Henry of Prussia, even if two of their three sons were haemophiliacs. The other one did not die until 1978. Did Queen Elizabeth II never meet him? At any rate, cousin marriage was the most uncompromisingly Protestant thing about her public life. Ernest Louis and Victoria Melita were known in the Royal Family as Ernie and Ducky, but she was not the only ducky in the marriage, which was dissolved after only six years in 1901.

That brings us to the fact that the legality of marriages between first cousins was a product of the Reformation. Its prevalence until the First World War, and as recently as that, was a badge of Protestant honour, since Henry VIII had legalised it when he had wanted to marry Catherine Howard, who was Anne Boleyn’s first cousin, and since although William and Mary never had children (there’s that Ducky thing again), the intention had been that they would, and they were first cousins whose marriage would not ordinarily have been possible in the Catholic Church. Does the Orange Order, named after a fruit, now wish to ban a marriage such as William of Orange’s? Would the four stripes of Northern Irish Unionist in the House of Commons vote for that ban? We may be about to find out.

This seems to be about the Two Cultures. Although Charles and Emma Darwin were first cousins who had 10 children, and although Albert and Elsa Einstein were both maternal first cousins, and paternal second cousins such that her maiden name was Einstein, the mere thought of this practice is profoundly shocking to scientists. But to people formed by the study of literature and history, then, while that is where it belongs, that is where you will find it routinely. Mainstream British society was educated out of it, and not very long ago, so that can obviously be done. South Asians are hardly unreceptive to education.

Anglo-Saxons and Scotch-Irish still regularly marry their first cousins in several of the parts of the United States that voted for Donald Trump, and they did so as a matter of course into the very recent past. But if the argument is that this was something that certain other ethnic groups did, then , much as I would still vote for this Bill since it was available, it may be better to treat the matter as one of health education rather than of criminal law. After all, that was what worked with everyone else. Nineteenth-century novels are full of marriages between first cousins as the most normal thing in the world. In HMS Pinafore, Sir Joseph Porter marries his adoring Cousin Hebe. Between 1979 and 1981, the makers and viewers of To the Manor Born took it as read that Audrey fforbes-Hamilton’s late husband had been her cousin. Although Coronation Street does not, both Emmerdale and EastEnders still feature such arrangements between white characters whose families were supposed to have lived in Emmerdale or Walford since time out of mind, and that seems to raise no eyebrows. Still, the King is a last great hurrah of that sort of thing. His mother was one of the least inbred monarchs ever, and his son and grandson are not at all inbred. Educate people, and it will mostly or entirely die out. That worked with everyone else. Even the Royal Family.

Yet since the intention would apparently be to prevent genetic defects, which is not the only reason to oppose cousin marriage, then it would be pointless without the criminalisation of sex between first cousins. So be it, but we have already raised the age of marriage to two years above the age of consent, a literally preposterous arrangement. It is now legally impossible to do the decent thing, but not to do the indecent thing. Pity poor Imam Ashraf Osmani of Northampton, who in January was handed a suspended sentence of 15 weeks’ imprisonment for having performed a nikah, which has no legal status whatever, so that two 16-year-olds could have a perfectly lawful sexual relationship without sinning. The second time as farce.

Something similar applies to polygamy. As you could marry your cousin by nikah, with no legal standing, and the two of you could then have children perfectly legally as you could have done anyway, so you can take three more wives alongside your legal one by nikah, with no legal standing, and have children with all of them. Or you could take all four wives by nikah alone. In fact, any man can have children with four different women simultaneously if they will let him. Doing so with two, often in arrangements that lasted decades, has never been especially uncommon, and nor has sending the bill to the DWP or its predecessors. Whatever else that may be, it is certainly not un-British.

With all of that in mind, Malise Ruthven writes:

On 1 July, the Swedish government formally outlawed first-cousin marriage, presenting the ban not simply as a measure to reduce inherited disorders but as protection against coercion, honor-based oppression and clan control. The immediate reaction, recorded by Svenska Dagbladet, was strikingly subdued. In Rinkeby, a Stockholm district with a large immigrant population, some residents welcomed the ban while others objected to political intrusion into family life. The most telling reservation was that the law would remain largely declaratory unless vulnerable young people were offered alternative sources of protection. After all, coercion and protection are two sides of the same system: the family that houses, employs and defends its members also acquires the power to supervise their friendships, sexuality and marriages.

Britain considered the issue less decisively than Sweden in December 2024, when the Conservative MP Richard Holden introduced a Bill prohibiting marriage between first cousins. Although he cited genetic risks and coercion, his more original argument drew on conclusions reached separately by the anthropologists Joseph Henrich and Jack Goody: cousin marriage helps preserve clan power by keeping property, loyalty and opportunity within the extended family.

Holden was opposed by Iqbal Mohamed, the independent Muslim MP for Dewsbury and Batley, who argued that prohibition would stigmatize minorities and prove difficult to enforce. Education, genetic screening and protection against forced marriage were preferable. Yet Mohamed also acknowledged the institution’s economic logic: cousin marriage strengthened family bonds and put families on a “more secure financial foothold”.

The two MPs were describing the same institution from opposite ends: Holden emphasizing the power the clan exercises over its members, Mohamed the protection it offers. Where governments are weak or indifferent, the extended family can become bank, welfare office, employment agency and court of appeal. But protection has a price. People who depend on the family cannot easily defy it.

The liberal response to this issue tends to stop at individual consent. Are two adults entitled to marry? Are minorities being stigmatized? These are necessary questions, but they can obscure the distribution of power within which consent is exercised. Multiculturalism is acutely conscious of injuries inflicted on minorities while often reticent about systems of authority exercised within minority cultures.

On the face of it, cousin marriage has little to do with Middle Eastern investments in the Shard, Canary Wharf or Manhattan office blocks. Still less do they appear connected to the Trump family’s increasingly intimate business relations with the dynasties of the Gulf. Yet they belong to the same structural landscape: a form of social organization resting upon blood, marriage, personal knowledge and reciprocal loyalty. This is very different from the other kind of social organization, more common in the West, which assigns property and authority to artificial persons — courts, universities, offices, companies and states — that exist independently of the mortal individuals temporarily occupying them.

Such distinctions can be traced back to the Middle Ages. Western modernity, following its millennium-long gestation within the Catholic Church, depended not upon abolishing the family but upon creating institutions powerful enough to compete with it. Goody, writing as an anthropologist specializing in kinship, and Henrich, drawing much later on comparative psychology and cultural evolution, arrived independently at versions of this argument. Both suggest implicitly that Max Weber’s celebrated account of the Protestant ethic and the emergence of capitalism begins much too late.

Weber explained the rise of capitalism partly through the moral psychology of ascetic Protestantism. Calvinists, uncertain of their salvation, looked for evidence of election in disciplined work, sobriety and accumulation. His argument is illuminating, but Protestantism encouraged capitalist behavior only because Latin Christendom had already constructed the institutional base upon which capitalism could build. Antwerp had become Europe’s leading commercial center under Catholic Habsburg rule before Protestant Amsterdam absorbed much of its displaced trade, capital and expertise. Venice, Genoa and Florence were wealthy long before the Reformation.

The more fundamental institutional revolution was Catholic. From late antiquity onwards, the Western Church attacked many of the reproductive arrangements through which kin groups preserved property and power. Its marriage program — arguably the most far-reaching exercise of social engineering in history — prohibited polygyny, concubinage, divorce, adoption and remarriage, as well as unions within widening circles of blood and affinity. In 517, for example, the Synod of Epaone in Burgundy decreed that unions with first and second cousins were incestuous and henceforth forbidden, along with marriage to stepmothers, widows of brothers, sisters-in-law and aunts by marriage. The prohibition was extended to the seventh degree by Pope Gregory III in 732, and reaffirmed throughout the medieval period, although enforcement was uneven. The prohibition was later reduced to kinship of the fourth degree.

The Church’s stated reasons were scriptural and theological. Marriage created “one flesh”, and the incest prohibitions were held to protect the sacramental purity of marriage. But the institutional effect was also material. By restricting heirs, remarriage and the means by which lineages recovered property, the Church made it easier for wealth to pass into monasteries, bishoprics and charitable endowments. In his seminal work The Development of the Family and Marriage in Europe (1983), Goody argued that this was no accidental by-product. By the Reformation, the Church and its affiliates had become the largest landholders in Germany and doubtless much of northern Europe.

The consequences, intended or otherwise, were revolutionary. Marriage restrictions weakened large kinship groupings. They encouraged smaller households, unions outside the lineage, voluntary associations and trust between unrelated people. In The WEIRDest People in the World (2020), Henrich argues that populations subjected most intensively to the Church’s rules gradually became more individualistic and more disposed to trust strangers. The Church did not merely preach universal brotherhood; it interfered with the institutions that made family the principal source of social identity. It broke the clan in order to save the individual soul.

But weakening kinship created a new problem. If property, authority and memory were no longer transmitted exclusively through blood, where could social continuity reside? The answer was the corporation, an originally ecclesiastical structure later secularized and appropriated by business. An abbey survived its abbots; a bishopric its bishops. Masters and students passed through Oxbridge, but the university and its colleges remained. Kings died, but the Crown endured. Offices, endowments and obligations acquired an existence independent of the bodies temporarily administering them.

While promising eternity to believers’ souls, the Church created an earthly analogue of eternity in law. The corporation was an immortal body, distinct from the mortal governors, shareholders and employees composing it. Property could belong not merely to a proprietor and his heirs but to an institution that never died — the “dead hand” of mortmain. Protestantism may have supplied capitalism with Weber’s “this-worldly asceticism”. But it was Catholic canon law that supplied the indispensable legal fiction of corporate personality. Eternity, a diminishing expectation with the growth of religious skepticism, migrated from heaven to Companies House and Wall Street.

The theological ancestry of the modern company is curiously neglected in conventional accounts of secularization. As I used to explain to my students, Jesus Christ was, in this structural sense, the original president of Coca-Cola and of every other corporation operating under Western law. The Enlightenment did not simply expel religion and leave autonomous reason in its place. It inherited legal and metaphysical inventions developed over many centuries by the Latin Church.

The contrast with Islamic societies is stark, though it is not a contrast between commercial sophistication and backwardness. Muslim jurists developed complex rules governing trade, credit, inheritance, partnership and charitable endowments, sustaining commercial networks from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean when much of northern Europe remained economically primitive. But Islamic law did not develop corporate personhood in the same expansive and adaptable form as Latin canon law. The waqf (Islamic trust) could preserve property for generations, but its purposes were fixed by its founder. Commercial partnerships remained tied to particular individuals and might dissolve when a partner died, whereupon his share passed among prescribed heirs, often fragmenting the estate.

Nor did Islamic law generally challenge endogamous marriage. Cousins are absent from the prohibited degrees enumerated in the Qur’an which also expressly mentions cousin categories among those permitted to the Prophet. In many Arab societies, marriage to a father’s brother’s daughter became especially valued, a practice seen by critics as a way of circumventing female rights of inheritance. Studies have generally placed consanguineous marriage at roughly two-fifths to more than half of all unions in Saudi Arabia, although rates vary by region and have declined in some younger and urban populations. Combined with inheritance rules, such marriages retain property and obligations within the extended family and reinforce lineage solidarity.

A related contrast appears in legal culture. Western justice came to revere the idea of depersonalized justice symbolized by the blindfold statue of Lady Justice holding a balance: abstract rules applied without regard to the litigants’ identities. Lawrence Rosen’s studies of Moroccan courts describe a different philosophy. The qadi assesses reputation and character, and seeks a settlement that restores workable relationships between contending parties. His authority lies not simply in imposing a rule from above but in knowing how the parties stand within a web of obligations. The relevant distinction is between trust vested in procedure and trust vested in personal knowledge.

The Western achievement was not moral superiority but the institutionalization of mistrust, nourished by the doctrine of original sin. Because human beings were assumed to be greedy, partial and mortal, offices and procedures were constructed to constrain and outlast them. Authority belonged — at least theoretically — to the office rather than the office-holder or their family. Official rules made nepotism harder: appointments could be challenged, accounts audited and conflicts exposed. While the West never eradicated favoritism, it forced favoritism to disguise itself.

It is here that Gulf sovereign wealth funds enter the picture. A sovereign fund, such as Norway’s, is supposed to embody depersonalized capitalism: professionally managed, globally diversified and capable of yielding revenue across generations. Yet in a Gulf monarchy it may also operate as an investment arm of the ruling establishment — simultaneously national treasury, investment company, diplomatic instrument and development agency. Its assets belong nominally to the state, but senior princes appoint managers, determine strategic priorities and use investments to cultivate relationships abroad. A decision may be commercially rational while also serving diplomacy, prestige and dynastic security.

The results are visible across Western cityscapes. Qatar’s fund owns Harrods and the Shard, jointly controls Canary Wharf Group and holds a substantial stake in Heathrow. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund owns Newcastle United and has invested in Lucid, Uber and a multitude of technology and entertainment ventures. It also supplied $2 billion to Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners even after an internal advisory panel reportedly raised objections. Qatari and Emirati funds initially invested about $200 million each; in 2024 Qatar’s investment authority and Abu Dhabi-based Lunate supplied a further $1.5 billion between them.

There is nothing inherently sinister about Arab ownership of Western property. American private-equity firms, Russian oligarchs, European luxury conglomerates and British pension funds do not acquire moral purity merely by being Western. Gulf funds employ highly trained professionals and seek financial returns. Petrodollar capital, however, emerges from political systems in which personal confidence, dynastic authority, discretion, patronage and reciprocal obligation remain central to governance. Its influence lies not only in formal ownership but in the field of access, gratitude and dependency surrounding it.

The Khaldunian paradigm is helpful here. Ibn Khaldun, the 14th-century North African historian and political theorist, understood political power as arising from asabiyya — group feeling, or clannish solidarity. A ruling house governs because its members possess a cohesion unavailable to more fragmented populations. In time, luxury and dependence weaken that solidarity, exposing the dynasty to replacement by a tougher group arriving from the margins.

Far from escaping this logic, the Gulf monarchies have modernized it. Oil revenues allow ruling families to transform lineage solidarity into ministries, sovereign wealth funds, global portfolios and high-tech security services. Kinship has not disappeared into the anonymized structures of the bureaucratic state; bureaucracy has become an instrument through which dynastic cohesion operates internationally. The Gulf sovereign wealth fund is Asabiyya Inc.

Patrimonial capital becomes especially potent when it encounters Western elites predisposed to behave in like fashion. Kushner’s Affinity Partners offers the clearest example. After serving in Donald Trump’s White House, where he played a central role in Middle Eastern policy, Kushner obtained billions in commitments from Gulf sovereign funds.

The scandal does not depend upon proving a crude exchange of policy for payment. It lies in the blurring of public and private realms. A president’s son-in-law conducts diplomacy with hereditary rulers and then receives capital from funds answerable to those ruling establishments. Public service creates private relationships; private relationships produce commercial opportunity; commercial interests shadow future public policy. The form may be corporate, but the substance is courtly.

With Trump’s return to power, the overlap between his family’s businesses, diplomatic connections and political authority has become ever more conspicuous. Sons, sons-in-law, golf buddies, property developers, cryptocurrency promoters and Gulf princes inhabit the same web of transactions. The problem is larger than corruption in its prosecutable form. Bribery law assumes a reasonably clear distinction between public office and private gain. Today, that very distinction is being eroded, bringing about what could be described as “re-feudalisation”. Under feudal arrangements, government was personal: land, jurisdiction, family alliance and military obligation formed a single web. A favorite might simultaneously be ambassador, financier and beneficiary of royal patronage. The sovereign’s household was not neatly separable from government.

The modern state emerged by extracting office from the household. Treasury funds ceased, in theory, to be the ruler’s private money, while diplomats and civil servants served an institution rather than a family. These principles were never perfectly realized. But hypocrisy — the tribute vice pays to virtue — acknowledged the institutional ideal: nepotism had to be concealed because public and private interests were understood to be different.

Constitutional government still depends upon offices whose purposes cannot be privately inherited, purchased or repaid. It requires decision-makers capable of distinguishing friendship from duty, and national resources from family assets. Once that separation collapses, elections may mask continuity, but real power reverts to a pre-modern feudal order.

The Swedish ban on cousin marriage concerns much more than an uncomfortable minority custom. It asks whether liberal societies can discuss the institutional consequences of kinship without subjecting families to ethnic prejudice or romanticizing national culture. Cousin marriage endures because it performs vital economic and political work: it concentrates trust within the lineage. Prohibition alone cannot dissolve that structure. People will not abandon the protections of kinship merely because the state declares them undesirable; the state must demonstrate that its institutions are worthy of trust.

The medieval Church’s marriage prohibitions redirected trust outwards, towards voluntary associations and the artificial persons of the abbey, city and state. The modern West was built through that long and incomplete transition from blood to office, household property to corporate property, and personal rule to institutional authority. Today, that movement appears to be going into reverse. Citizens are invited to regard cousin marriage solely as a private choice while presidents convert public office into family opportunity. Governments speak the language of transparency while courting funds that combine national wealth with dynastic power. The artificial persons created to restrain kinship — the state and the corporation — are being reoccupied by kin-based households.

Sweden has outlawed the marriage of first cousins. The more difficult task is preventing the return of government by aunts and uncles, cousins, sons, sons-in-law and their cronies.