Thursday 26 December 2013

Making Plans For Nigel?

Survation has the voting intentions for the European Elections: Lab 32%, UKIP 25%, Con 24%, Lib Dems 8%, Green 6%.

In other words, the Lib Dems are statistically tied with the Greens. And the Conservatives are statistically tied with UKIP. For second place. Seven or eight points behind Labour.

Farage has bet the farm on leading his party to the top of the poll. Yet it may very well come third.

Even if it does have a possible use. Together with Labour, it could and should remove both Coalition parties from every seat in Scotland (although UKIP will not win a seat there) and in the North of England.

But, as some of us have now been saying for over a year, at best UKIP is still going to come a fairly distant second to Labour overall. If it does not come third.


  1. That poll should be very worrying for you, if you actually oppose our membership of the EU as much as you claim to.

    If any of the three pro-EU parties wins the euro elections, then the cause of withdrawal is finished.

    Only if a party dedicated to withdrawal wins, will we have sent out the strongest message possible that that is the end which the British people desire.

    Whatever people's General Election preferences, UKIP is the only game in town at the Euro elections if you actually want Britain to leave.

    A vote for any of the others will be viewed as a vote for staying in.

    This election is, in many ways, the first real opinion poll (and referendum) on this issue.

  2. The debate around the EU has nothing, literally nothing, to do with the performance, or even the existence, of UKIP.

  3. UKIP is the only party in the running for the euro elections that is dedicated to withdrawal.

    Therefore a victory at that election for any of the Parliamentary parties (even the one that has pledged a referendum purely in response to UKIP) will be viewed (rightly) as a Yes vote to staying in the EU.

    UKIP's is the only game in town, if you actually oppose our membership of the EU.

    Do you? This is the litmus test.

  4. It has never had anything to do with the real debate. It is a branch of entertainment. But it might, and should, finally have one practical use next year.

  5. "UKIP is the only party in the running for the euro elections that is dedicated to withdrawal"?

    What about the numerous ones on the Left, especially No2EU/TUSC and the SLP, and several on the Far Right, as well as New Deal, Nikki Sinclaire's outfit and so on?

    You have no doubt just heard Godfrey Bloom on PM call UKIP "policy-free", accuse Farage of suspending him over the sluts comment because it distracted attention from Farage, and say all Farage wanted to be was a Tory.

    Bloom, UKIP's second best known figure, is obviously planning an Independent or new party candidacy next year, yet another contradiction of the claim that only UKIP is dedicated to withdrawal.

  6. UKIP is the only party in the running that argues for withdrawal at all.

    That alone makes it of more " use" than any of the other three in contention.

    If you mean that it's only "practical use" is to help a pro-EU party beat another pro-EU party, then that isn't much use at all, is it?

  7. "What about the numerous ones on the Left?"

    None of them are in contention for the euro elections.

    Therefore, of those that are, UKIP is the only "Out" vote.

    The choice is UKIP-or three pro- EU parties.

    Make your choice-and we can see where you stand on thus issue.

  8. Of course they are "in contention". It is hardly for a party which is on course to come third to say who is or who is not.

    The BBC had to black out reference to one of them as a matter of policy last time for fear that it might otherwise have won a seat or two, heavily editing the floor debate on Question Time and so on.

    And that was before austerity. Although also before the election of a Classical Labour figure as Leader of the Labour Party.

  9. After that Bloom interview Ukip is finished. It was devastating.

  10. Anonymous.

    I could answer all your silly points about Bloom (is that buffoon now suddenly a reliable source? do other parties not have bitter ex members who were sacked?) but it's all irrelevant.

    A vote for any of the pro-withdrawal parties you list, is a wasted vote-since none of them is even in the running for this-check the polls.

    You either vote UKIP-or you vote Yes to staying in.

    It is as simple as that.

  11. You are beyond desperate. You are clearly resigned to third place. After years of the BBC parroting, on no evidence whatever, that you were going to top the poll. Farage's ubiquity now cries out for serious investigation.