No, of course there isn't going to be some merger between David Cameron and Hilary Benn, or even between their younger supporters.
Ignore predictions by Peter Hitchens, for all his other gifts.
He insisted until the last possible moment that the Coalition would collapse, and that Vince Cable would become Deputy Prime Minister under Ed Miliband during the last Parliament.
That is quite typical of his predictive powers. Peter Oborne's are fairly similar. Again, for all his other gifts.
Meanwhile, a party to the right of the Conservatives has enjoyed a very high profile for many years now.
Last year, it won four million votes, as if that were an enormous tally. In fact, four million people voted Labour in seats that were won by the Conservatives. Four million is not a lot of votes.
No, although there is a role for individual MPs outside the normal party system (although arguably not for whole parties like that, at least in England) in what is now this established age of hung Parliaments and tiny minorities, what really matters is control of one or other of the Big Two.
Indeed, one of the roles of those individual MPs is potentially in relation to such struggles, after the manner of Bernie Sanders or the Australian Democratic Labour Party.
Nor is it the case that a majority for Leave means that neither political party speaks for the majority. This issue exists entirely outside party politics. Ask the party that based itself solely on it. Ask its one, effectively Independent, MP.
The battle for control of both parties is of course now in full swing. Nothing else is, and certainly not any reconfiguration of the party system itself.
Moreover, that battle is not, in either case, being fought on the issue of EU membership per se. At least in its aftermath, the referendum has turned out to have been about that scarcely, if at all.
By the way, I shall not be contesting a General Election this year. I have not raised enough money for that, and in any case such an Election would be contested on the present boundaries.
Everyone called the last election wrong including the party that won it.
ReplyDeleteYou predicted Leave would lose the referendum (because it was led by Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and co) while Peter Hitchens predicted it would win.
So wose predictive powers are deficient here?
"Nor is it the case that a majority for Leave means that neither political party speaks for the majority. This issue exists entirely outside party politics""
That's an absurdly illogical and self contradictory statement.
The desire for national independence and an end to mass immigration exists "entirely outside party politics" precisely BECAUSE neither party in politics speaks for the majority.
This referendum result has absolutely proved that beyond doubt.
UKIP's one MP is down to the fact that under First Past the Post no alternative party ever has or ever will get anywhere until the two Establishment ones make way. UKIP got far more votes than any other party that's ever tried it (the SNP the Greens etc) but not as many votes as a new party would be able to get if the Useless Twosome were not still dividing an electorate who would otherwise have much in common.
You predicted Leave would lose the referendum (because it was led by Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and co)
DeleteI stopped reading at that point. I never predicted any such thing. I said that if it lost (as looked very likely for a long time), then that would be the reason. If it had lost, then that would have been the reason.