Thursday, 14 May 2009

Labour To Come Sixth For Strasbourg?

No one follows these things more closely than the bookies. And William Hill seems to think so.
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11 comments:

  1. Mobey14 May 2009 at 17:27

    Isn't it a bit hypocritical for you to link to, and direct your vast audience to, a gambling site when you claim to never gamble?

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  2. David Lindsay14 May 2009 at 17:29

    Oh, I buy raffle tickets. I've never said I didn't.

    The bookies are invaluable in ways of which the pollsters cannot dream. Consult them. Just don't give them any money.

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  3. Minityah14 May 2009 at 17:48

    I don't see how the bet you have linked to leads you to that conclusion. William Hills have offered it as a market - not something they think will happen. They'd probably offer you odds on you becoming PM, but it doesn't mean they think it will happen,

    All you can tell is how the odds move - ie whether people who are gambling think it will or won't happen. And the odds have changed recently to become much more favourable to Labour - in other wors, the bookies (no one follows these things more closely) think it won't happen.

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  4. David Lindsay14 May 2009 at 17:52

    Their press release (capitalisation and typos in the original) reads:

    "BOOKMAKERS WILLIAM HILL believe that UKIP will end up with more seats at the forthcoming Euro elections than Labour. And Hills offer Even money that UKIP - who won eleven seats last time - will get mopre than 7/4 shots Labour - who had 19, with a tie between the two offered at 3/1.'The current expenses scandal could hardly have come at a worse time for the major Parties with the Euro elections on the horizon and we believe there will be a strong protest vote against the bigger Parties together with a hefty stay-away percentage of voters' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

    "HILLS OFFER EVENS THAT UKIP WILL WIN 15 OR MORE SEATS - AND GO 1/5 THAT THE BNP WILL WIN A SEAT, 3/1 THAT THEY WILL GET FIVE OR MORE; WHILE THE GREEN PARTY ARE 3/1 TO DOUBLE THEIR NUMBERS TO TEN OR MORE."

    Which really could mean Labour coming sixth. Don't rule it out.

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  5. James14 May 2009 at 17:53

    How about seventh, behind No2EU?

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  6. David Lindsay14 May 2009 at 17:54

    We live in hope.

    The BBC's failure to cover a party with several very prominent figures and a list in every mainland region is absolutely scandalous.

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  7. JohnJGMooney14 May 2009 at 18:09

    I must admit to having the occasional flutter on things about which I actually know something. Football and Politics for example.

    I dont really look on gambling as ....gambling. I look on it as high risk investment currently paying better "interest" than your local bank.
    I regard Ladbrokes et al as investment consultants. The great problem is betting with your "hope" and not your "head" but as I have long since given up HOPE, I make a reasonable profit on my (political) investments.
    Easier to have no hope about Politics than Football, unless of course you live in the North East.

    I would not put too much faith in press releases by Bookmakers. It is a response to high profile publicity seeking Bookmakers (Paddy Power) and at attempt to attract more money from the "Hope Over Experience" Brigade.
    I was in London from 7th to 10th May and saw no evidence of ANY election (posters, canvassers outside Tube etc).
    This leads me to conclude that BNP, Green, UKIP will do quite well.
    I think in the last few days of the campaign I might take a closer look at the Form Book.

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  8. David Lindsay14 May 2009 at 18:14

    When were there ever posters and what have in relation to local or European elections? Leaflets, yes. But not really very much more than that.

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  9. JohnJGMooney14 May 2009 at 18:59

    Ah I live in an area where interest is much greater and the electorate well informed. I have multiple posters of four different Parties in our Village

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  10. David Lindsay15 May 2009 at 16:12

    Yes, but just look which four they are.

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  11. JohnJGMooney15 May 2009 at 16:45

    I doubt if you actually know which four.
    But I daresay that any "Party" or individual can join them.
    We can therefore assume they have a certain endorsement within the community/communities and surely thats what we strive for.

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