Saturday, 6 August 2016

To Seek Such Validation

On one level, it hardly matters, since Owen Smith stands no realistic chance of ever becoming the Leader of the Labour Party.

But the man who is certainly going to beat him, and who already is the Leader of the Labour Party, has ruled out either a second referendum or a General Election in order to overturn the EU referendum result.

Although it is unlikely, there could be a second referendum next year.

If Theresa May felt any need to seek such validation of her existing approach, which is the continuation of David Cameron's.

That approach is to do nothing about British withdrawal from the EU. Absolutely nothing at all.

Every day without Article 50 makes Article 50 twice as unlikely as it was the day before.

The only day on which it could ever have been activated was the day of the referendum result. Precisely as Jeremy Corbyn said on that day.

What matters now is giving a voice to those areas which swung the referendum, by voting Leave on that occasion while voting Labour, Lib Dem or Plaid Cymru for parliamentary or municipal purposes.

The areas, as Corbyn puts it, "left behind by globalisation".

Today, Corbyn became the first Labour Leader ever to address a rally in Cornwall, which does now return only Conservative MPs (having returned none in 1997, 2001 or 2005, and as many Lib Dems as Tories even in 2010), but which continues to have a Lib Dem-led council.

As ever, the crowd to hear him was enormous, and its reception of him was rapturous.

The failure of Labour to take back Camborne and Redruth, which was pretty much the seat that it had held from 1997 to 2005 and at various times before that, served only to keep Michael Foster out of Parliament. 

Based on today, he seems most unlikely to be the candidate there in 2020.

But based on today, that candidate will be elected, and will not be the only Labour candidate to be elected in Cornwall.

Jeremy Corbyn knows no no-go areas.


  1. So much for John Rentoul's truly desperate attempt to claim that "Jeremy Corbyn’s equivocation over Europe could be exploited by Owen Smith".

  2. Following on from his triumphant tour of South Wales. So much for Owen Whatsit.

  3. Now we only need the Teaching Assistants thing settled and we can have you back in the party, onto the council next year, into Parliament in 2020. You should be in the Shadow Cabinet right now.

  4. Jeremy Corbyn's Constituency Labour Party endorsements thus far:
    London: 66%
    Scotland: 71%
    England: 86%
    Wales: 89%
    England outside London: 88%

    7% of UKIP's prior (20%) vote has gone back to the Conservatives. That's a third. Labour has lost 2% possibly to the Lib Dems and others.

    Here's the rub:

    Theresa May is Cameron post-Brexit. She has no intention whatsoever of leaving the EU and will stall and postpone the fateful day of pressing the Article 50 button.

    The 48 percenters are misnamed as they don't represent (and never will) the Tory Remain elements or the Labour Party elements of Remain. The main elements who make up the total 48%.

    Corbyn has his problems - true. Yet the Conservatives are deeply split as to Brexit or no Brexit. Therefore: If the Article 50 button is not pressed by the end of the year then ructions will occur within the Governing Party. They have the magnificent majority of 11.

    The Opposition then has a choice: Does the Opposition - Labour (in maybe two parts ) the SNP and the Lib Dems as
    Remainers vote for May's Remain stalling or do they side with the Tory Brexiteers tactically to bring the Government down in a vote of No Confidence?

    The 172 Labour nervous Nellies will then have an historic choice to make which will affect their careers. Because what that means is that they will have to open themselves up to the Electorate as Remainers or die hard Brexiteers.

    Now, if you believe that Labour Brexiteers were more sincere than the the Tory ones (40% Tories Remain and 62% Labour Remainers) it is a vote you would expect to be difficult to win. Particularly in the North and various small towns in England.

    The problem is that many of Labours Heartlands voted to leave. This is the " Middle ground " Blairites wish to win. Corbyn has just recognised it for what it is. A cry for assistance in these areas. These things are solvable with Investment.

    The problem is that the Blairites think we are back in 1997. We are not - things have changed and it is you and the Blairites that need to change not Corbyn.

    History is running all over them and they don't know it. By the time they do - it will be too late for the Blairites.