Thursday, 28 July 2016

Don't Be Trumped

A second referendum on EU membership would undoubtedly result in a vote to Remain, probably by the same margin as the vote to Leave last month.

It might be argued that that would make no practical difference, since Article 50 has not been invoked, nor is there any intention to invoke it. It becomes less likely with every passing day.

In itself, that is perfectly true, and indeed blatantly obvious.

But if only Conservative and UKIP-minded areas had voted Leave, then Remain would have won comfortably.

The referendum was swung by Labour, Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru voters. Who, of course, remain so, and will remain so. This issue was not a party one, or there would not have been a referendum on it.

The Conservative Party, of course, was also in favour of a Remain vote.

To such an extent that David Cameron resigned when there was a Leave vote. And to such an extent that he has been succeeded by another Remainer without a contest.

Jeremy Corbyn's victory last year, the swinging of the EU referendum result, and Corbyn's even bigger victory this year, have been and will be the cries of the areas, the communities, the families and the individuals that have been abandoned, ignored, denigrated and oppressed since 1979.

At least unless the political and cultural, and not least the media, structures through which they could now be heard were already firmly in place, then a second referendum, with its inevitable result, would be a catastrophic setback to the advancement of those areas, communities, families and individuals.

It would silence them, right at the moment that they had found their voice.

But already to have those structures firmly in place would be a very big ask between now and the early part of next year.

The event most likely to force a second referendum, in the early part of next year, would be the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States.

Any possibility of a bilateral trade agreement would then be ruled out entirely, at least for four years.

In that situation, the Remain vote in 2017 would be higher than the Leave vote in 2016.


  1. No doubt about that, Mr. L. The Labour Leave vote, and the Lib Dem Leave vote in the West Country and some other pockets, pushed it over the line, otherwise Remain would have won and Cameron would still be PM. I don't know about Plaid Cymru but it sounds right, and if you say it then I believe it. A good rule for life, that one: listen to Mr. Lindsay.

    You are obviously right about Trump too. As far as the "Anglosphere" is concerned, Britain is a relative they thought was dead. They think Downton Abbey is a documentary. Australians in particular were always fond of anti-British tariffs even inside the Empire never mind outside it like the Americans who imposed them from the very start. Both countries based their development on not having free trade with Britain, in Australia's case before even becoming politically independent from Britain. They haven't forgotten.

    Yes, a second referendum would deliver a Remain vote because people would have been made to face these realities. But I don't know that the structures to ensure our people's voices were still heard would not be in place by early next year. By all accounts you are doing all right setting them up. When Jeremy wins again, the most popular politician on the stump anyone has ever seen, the effect on our people will be electric.

    We are getting our power back, our people in places like the rural South are getting it for the first time ever, these are the days of miracles and wonders, and they have only just begun.

    1. I regard the Durham Teaching Assistants' campaign as one such miracle and wonder. Most of the participants, and all of the organisers, had never been remotely "political" before. They have dared to stand up and fight only in the changed political culture created by the election of Jeremy as Labour Leader. It is no coincidence that he is among their strongest supporters. I suspect that there are several other such phenomena around the country.

    2. The most popular politician on the stump anyone has ever seen, ain't that the truth? I've been around politics for 50 years and never, but never, seen anything like the crowds he draws or the reaction he gets from them. It's like a religious experience, but for thousands and thousands of people at a time. The sight of everyone from the old miners and their widows to the kids in school, all reaching out just to touch his hand, it's phenomenal. He got a quarter of a million votes last year. How many politicians in Britain have ever had a quarter of a million people vote specifically for them? This year it is going to be even more despite the fact his enemies tried to rig the ballot. Incredible. Amazing. Dazzling. You couldn't write it.

  2. Loved your comment just now to silly old Tony McNulty on Twitter (why do so many of Jeremy's enemies have Sinn Fein backgrounds?) and maybe even sillier Tom Copley: "Surprised he can be bothered with one. #JeremyCorbyn knows he is going to win. Who needs hustings?"