In a comment on previous posts, Zin writes:
The moment Saakashvili opened fire on Tskhinvali and turned it into a pile of rubble, there was no chance whatsoever of the local population ever accepting Georgian authority or the status quo ever being restored. Even a president as inept as Saakashvili must have realised this.
The Georgian bombing could only lead to one of three outcomes:-
1. The de-facto ethnic cleansing of South Ossetia, as the local population flees into Russia from where they would have no realistic prospect of return.
2. A guerilla war waged by the remaining South Ossetians (and others) against Georgia, backed by Russia.
3. A Russian military response to free South Ossetia, which inevitably would involve the degredation of Georgia’s military machine and their humiliation as a nation.
Like Iraq, this was a war of choice and act of monumental stupidity. Saakashvili’s only defence is that the Washington neocon dinosaurs gave him the green light, which given the presence of 200 US military advisors embedded in the Georgian army, they surely did.
Of course, none of this is taking place in a geopolitical vacuum. Russia is resurgent. China is rising. And the US is in long term relative economic decline. Welcome to multi-polarity. Say goodbye to Saakashvili.
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