Monday, 28 September 2026

Lock and Load

Scrapping the triple lock on the state pension would raise nothing approaching enough money to introduce a National Care Service, or even the free personal care for the elderly that, since it already existed in Scotland, ought to exist throughout the United Kingdom to stem the tide of Daniel Thomas-style English nationalism. That is what is most likely to happen, so note well that the triple lock in Scotland does not render free personal care "unaffordable" any more than vice versa.

In any case, the relentless campaign against the triple lock, the logic of which would be the abolition of the state pension itself, has already decided that the money should instead be spent on "defence", making it obvious where that campaign's very high level of organisation was coming from. And John Healey, who contributed to the fall of Keir Starmer by resigning because there was not enough "defence" spending, knows that it is a lie that "the money is simply not there" for anything else. Now Chancellor of the Exchequer, Healey has in his time been both Economic Secretary to the Treasury and Financial Secretary to the Treasury. To pay for a war, then he would remember how the money supply worked. Well, that is just how the money supply works.

Going for the Angry Young Women to Restore Britain's Angry Young Men, the Green Party supports only a double lock, scrapping the 2.5 per cent rule. Restore wants to link the pension only to the Consumer Prices Index, and for all Reform UK's Boomer base, it has to pander to Restore because it holds its seats by tiny majorities while seeking to overturn many, many more. Holborn and St Pancras can defend even so little as one of the lowest pensions in Western Europe, payable from one of the highest ages, only by electing George Galloway.

The Great Class Inversion

94 per cent of us lost the class war in 1994, when a Labour Party that had already been on course for a year and a half to win the subsequent General Election gave its Leadership, and thus the Premiership as soon as that Election came, to a man whose only qualification was that he had a public school accent. Labour is a party of extremely right-wing people who lack the social connections to make it in the Conservative Party, and whose two defining experiences were being brought up to spit on everyone below them, which was everyone else where they grew up, and discovering in their first 36 hours at university that they were nowhere near the top of the class system, a discovery that embittered them for life. So none of this is new. Nevertheless, John Rentoul writes:

Labour conference will be suffused with the imagery of class politics. Most of the speeches will refer to “working people”, and imply that the party represents the poor and middle-income majority against the rich. None of it is true. This year, it is less true than ever. Labour voters are richer, better-educated and more middle-class than Conservative and Reform supporters.

Peter Kellner, the polling guru, reports a new survey from Norstat. The company interviewed 5,500 people straight after the 2024 election, and then again this month. The results show that 57 per cent of Labour supporters were middle class (social grades ABC1) two years ago, which has now risen to 63 per cent. The proportions of graduates and of those earning more than £40,000 a year have also risen sharply.

The study confirms that the Great Class Inversion in British politics, after the Brexit vote 10 years ago, was no temporary blip but a long-run trend that is still happening. All the pollsters consistently report now that Labour voters are the most middle class, Reform voters the most working class (social grades C2DE), and the Conservatives somewhere in between, leaning towards the working class. Greens and Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, tend to be middle class, but not as much as Labour supporters.

This is going to make Labour’s annual conference one long exercise in cognitive dissonance. When Andy Burnham promises breathing space on the cost of living, he is offering respite to people who do not intend to vote for him, on the whole. Labour supporters tend to be the ones who can afford the rent or the mortgage.

When delegate after delegate comes to the lectern to talk about the class struggle, they will be talking about someone else’s class, most of whose members think that Labour does not represent them. If they urge solidarity with the workers, they may mean public sector workers in secure jobs with good pensions rather than the low-paid who feel more of an affinity with Nigel Farage.

The Labour movement has always had middle-class leaders, and it has long been an alliance between intellectuals and organised labour, but this is something different. This is now a party of well-off graduates, with a tiny outhouse of the genuinely disadvantaged attached at the back.

The class inversion has unexpected implications. It may explain why Labour members and supporters are more concerned about issues such as Gaza rather than immigration, which is what bothers the working class. Perhaps it is why Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer misjudged the pensioners’ winter fuel payment – if most pensioners they know give it to Greenpeace or spend it on wine.

It makes Burnham’s northern working-class appeal seem like a form of historical re-enactment. When he talks about “reindustrialisation” or reversing 40 years of Thatcherism, this feels like an attempt to identify with a mythical working-class past idealised by many middle-class people with working-class origins. It may reflect the tendency of people who are objectively middle class to describe themselves as working class. The self-described working class has expanded since 1948, while the number of people in actual working-class jobs has declined.

Equally, however, Burnham’s provincial working-class ham act could be the key to the electoral coalition that Labour needs. The other important finding of Norstat’s research highlighted by Kellner is that since the last election, Labour has lost more votes to the right – to Reform and the Tories – than to the left, to the Greens and the Lib Dems.

This could mean that Burnham’s working-class pitch is exactly what Labour needs to win back those voters who have defected from the party of the middle class to one of the working-class parties. Especially as the battleground for the next election will overwhelmingly be seats fought between Labour on one side and either the Tories or Reform. There are not many Labour-Green or Labour-Lib Dem marginals.

As we head to Liverpool, prepare for a lot of middle-class people play-acting as working class.

Making Allowance


Chancellor John Healey is set to present his first budget. Like his recent predecessors, he wants to see sustained economic growth which has remained elusive. The UK economy grew by an annual average of 3% between 1993 and 2007. The growth rate shrank to 1.5% between 2009 and 2023, 1% in 2024; 1.3% in 2025, and is forecast to grow by 1.1% in 2026.

Depleted Purchasing Power

Sustained economic growth can’t be achieved without a major boost to the purchasing power of the bottom 50% of the population. Economic statistics show that in the absence of state intervention wealth has not trickled-down. After 50-years of economic growth workers’ share of gross value added has declined from 71.9% in 1975, to 59.7%. The average real wage has hardly grown since 2008. In August 2026, the median gross pay of a payrolled employee was £31,884, resulting in take-home pay of £26,476 after paying income tax and national insurance. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation estimates that single working-age adult needs to earn £31,500 a year to reach a minimum income standard and live a life with dignity. A lone parent with 2 children needs £67,600 a year, while a couple with 2 children needs to earn £77,400 a year between them. Unsurprisingly, 25.3m people, including 14.9m working adults and 7.7m children, live below minimum income standards and are not in a position to play a significant role in economic revival. 

A large proportion of the population can’t dip into a savings buffer to support consumption and economic growth. 1 in 6 UK adults (16% or 8.9m people) have no savings. 2 in 5 Brits (39%) have £1,000 or less in savings. At the same time, the richest 1% of Britons owns more wealth than the bottom 70% of the population combined. Just 50 richest families hold more wealth than the poorest half of the population, comprising more than 34m people. The concentration of wealth in fewer hands has not provided the necessary economic stimulus.

The tax system should be used to boost the purchasing power of the bottom 50%, but it has done the reverse and hit the poorest the hardest. The poorest 20% pay a higher proportion of their income in direct and indirect taxes than the richest 20%. In 2021, the personal allowance was frozen at £12,570 a year and 26.6m people paid income tax at the basic rate of 20%. By 2026-27, due to the freeze, 31.4m people became liable to pay income tax at the basic rate. If personal allowance had risen in line with the rate of inflation, it would have been around £16,070 for 2026/27. Due to frozen income tax thresholds, a minimum wage earner in England will pay additional £980 in income tax and national insurance in 2026-27 alone. Without change, it will be worse in 2027-28. Pensioners have been particularly hit hard. In 200-21, 6.47m pensioners paid income tax. In 2026-27, 9.58m pensioners became liable to income tax. Nearly 2m pensioners live in poverty.

Increasing Personal Allowance

A substantial increase in tax free income tax personal allowance is the quickest way to boost people’s purchasing power. The tax cost of each £1,000 increase in personal allowance is around £10bn a year though the real cost would be considerably less as higher household spending would increase government yield from VAT and other indirect taxes. An immediate £3,000 increase in personal allowance to £15,570 would cost around £30bn and boost gross domestic product by around 1.2%. Neoliberals don’t ask any questions about the resources for bank bailouts and corporate welfare programmes, but they always ask ‘how is it going to be paid’ whenever redistribution is mentioned.

The £30bn cost would be met by ending subsidies to highly profitable commercial banks. Since 2006, the Bank of England has paid interest on central bank reserve deposits to commercial banks. Central bank reserves are deposits held by commercial banks at the Bank of England (BoE) and are used to settle payments between banks. They are also used by the BoE to manage interest rates through tools such as quantitative easing. The interest payments accelerated in 2009 as quantitative easing took hold. As interest rates rose, payments to commercial banks increased. The EU had similar arrangements but in 2023 virtually eliminated the practice, saving about £5.2bn a year. The Swiss central bank also stopped paying interest on minimum reserves. The UK continues to pay and has paid £100bn in the last three years alone, which is an average of more than £30bn a year. Currently, the government hands subsidies to banks and then seeks to clawback a tiny portion by levying windfall taxes.

A £3,000 increase in personal allowance would be worth £600 in cash to 31.4m basic rate income taxpayers. However, higher personal allowance would disproportionately boost the post-tax income of the higher rate (40%) taxpayers by £1,200 and even more for additional rate (45%) taxpayers. However, there are clawback arrangements. In general, currently personal allowance is reduced by £1 for every £2 of income above £100,000. The net effect is that personal allowance is zero for incomes of £125,140 or above. That said there would still be higher benefit to people in the 40% and 45% income tax bracket, which will increase inequalities.

The government can tackle such effects by addressing tax anomalies mainly benefitting the wealthy, which in turn would generate even more resources for redistribution. For example, gains arising from the sale of second homes, buy-to-let properties, shares, art, antiques, businesses and cryptocurrencies, generally accrue to wealthy individuals. Capital gains are normally taxed at marginal rates of 18% to 24% (there is an additional rate of 32% for City fund managers who are exempt from paying income tax) and are not subjected to national insurance contributions. In contrast, wages are taxed at marginal rates of 20% to 45% and are subject to national insurance payments. By taxing capital gains at the same rates as wages, around £12bn – £14bn could be raised. More, if national insurance is levied.

So who would be impacted? The capital gains tax regime benefits less than 1% of the population. In 2024-25, 584,000 people paid £24.2bn capital gains tax (CGT) on gains of £127.3bn, an effective rate of just over 19%. Most CGT comes from the small number of taxpayers who make the largest gains. In 2024-2025, 45% of CGT came from those who made gains of £5 million or more. This group represents less than 1% of CGT taxpayers each year. They paid ultra low rates of tax. According to HMRC, 52% of gains for CGT-liable individuals came from the 17% of individuals with taxable incomes above £125,140, the additional rate threshold for income Tax. The benefit of lower CGT is spread unevenly. 234,000 individuals in London and the South East of England benefitted, compared to 33,000 in East Midlands, 34,000 in Yorkshire and 18,000 in Wales. Lower CGT rates widen regional inequalities. The alignment of capital gains rates with those applied to wages would also reduce regional inequalities.

There are also additional ways of clawing back gains from the rich. For example, dividends are taxed at marginal rates of 8.75% to 39.35%. Around £6 billion a year could be generated if dividends are taxed at the same rate as wages, and even more if national insurance is also charged. The wealthy are major recipients of dividends. The Institute for Fiscal studies (IFS) reported that the top 1% of income tax payers receive more of their income in the form of partnership income or dividends. Some self-employed and owner-managers pay themselves in dividends instead of a salary to take advantage of lower tax rates. The government states that over “90% of UK taxpayers do not receive taxable dividend income” and majority of pensioners do not receive dividends outside the tax-free ISA wrapper.

Altogether, the Chancellor needs to make a political decision but can easily increase personal allowance by £3,000 a year by ending bank subsidies. This would lift millions out of poverty, increase spending power of the less well-off, lighten the cost-of-living crisis and boost economic growth. He can go further and restore the real value (since 2021) of personal allowance by aligning taxation of capital gains and dividends with wage rates. This change would also end tax avoidance schemes designed to convert incomes to capital gains. It would nullify strategies for concocting dividends to enable some to avoid income tax and national insurance contributions.

The above proposals transfer wealth from the wealthy to the less well-off. They do not require any increase in the rates of income tax, VAT or corporation tax. Unlike the Reform UK proposals, they do not call for cuts in spending on social security, public services or the state pension.

Do They Hear Us? We Were Right

Paul Knaggs writes:

Three years ago, at Labour’s conference in Liverpool, Keir Starmer was asked by LBC’s Nick Ferrari whether a siege was appropriate: “Cutting off power, cutting off water?” His answer was plain enough. “I think that Israel does have that right.” His office later said he meant only Israel’s right to self-defence, and Starmer insisted it had never been his view that Israel could withhold water, food, fuel or medicine. But the words were on tape, and the country heard them.

Now Liverpool again, and a different sound entirely. Ed Miliband, Foreign Secretary in Andy Burnham’s government, told conference that the suffering inflicted on Gaza and the West Bank by Netanyahu’s government is “a stain on the conscience of the world”. Then came the line that brought the hall to its feet. To the millions moved and outraged by the plight of the Palestinian people, he said: “We hear you. You were right.”

Let us be fair, because fairness is the point. What Miliband announced is real. A ban on goods from illegal settlements. A pledge to cut off British finance, construction and services to them. Ministers now openly naming settler ethnic cleansing, the evidence of war crimes in Gaza and Israel’s illegal occupation. No British government has gone this far, and those who marched for three years deserve to see it.

But listen to who is speaking. Miliband was not a lonely voice on the backbenches. He sat on Starmer’s front bench in opposition and at his cabinet table in government, through every month in which the old line held. “You were right” is a generous thing to say to the public. It is also, whether he intends it or not, a verdict on the room he sat in. If the millions were right, the government they were arguing against was wrong, and the people who served in it owe more than an applause line.

And how were those millions treated while they were being right? The Starmer government proscribed Palestine Action. On the Sunday before Miliband spoke, police arrested around 150 people outside the conference for holding placards that read “I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action.” One day the state arrests you for your sign. The next, the Foreign Secretary thanks you for your conscience. Both cannot be the settled position of the same party.

The genocide case brought by South Africa remains before the International Court of Justice, and the legal question will be answered there. But the dead do not wait on judgments, and they do not disappear because Labour has found a new vocabulary. So here is the test, and it is not a test of language. If Labour believes its critics were right, it should review the proscription that is still filling police vans outside its own conference. It should give a full, public account of what ministers knew and decided on arms exports while Gaza was being flattened. And it should stop asking the country to hear the new words and forget the old ones. Orwell saw this trick long ago. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” This time the Party is telling you to trust your eyes and ears. Good. Then let it answer for what they said.

And, since the Fairford Five had mocked up their van as Fuel2U in case they were stopped and asked why they had so much diesel, making it is obvious what their game was and it was not the Islamic Revolution:

Two bail decisions came within a single week. On Friday, a 37-year-old roofer named Daniel Thomas, known to his supporters as Danny Tommo, appeared at Basingstoke Magistrates’ Court. He pleaded not guilty to criminal damage after allegedly slashing a boat in the Channel with an emergency responder on board. He also denied refusing to give police the PIN to his phone. He was refused bail and sent to prison to await trial. On Monday, five young men from London, arrested in the dead of night beside an RAF base used by American bombers, were released. They had been held on suspicion of Explosives Act offences and preparing a terrorist act. Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor, head of Counter Terrorism Policing, told reporters outside New Scotland Yard that they were leaving custody on police bail under “stringent conditions”.

Many readers will look at those two outcomes and conclude the system has its thumb on the scale. The feeling is understandable. Honesty requires us to say the cases are not the same. Thomas has been charged, and a court judged whether he should wait for trial behind bars. The Fairford five have not been charged. Police released them because, for now, they either lack the evidence to charge or the grounds to ask a court for more time. That distinction matters. It also opens a more troubling question than the one being shouted on social media.

WHAT WAS IN THE VANS? 

On Sunday the country watched aerial footage of a bomb disposal robot circling three white vans near the village of Whelford. Two had their rear doors open. Large black objects lay scattered around them. Reporters near the perimeter fence heard what sounded like two controlled detonations. At least 85 homes were evacuated. By Monday afternoon every suspect was walking free, the cordon was being scaled back and residents were being told they could go home. Police have still not said what, if anything, was in those vans. 

Plenty of people will be exasperated by this, and they are entitled to be. For a day and a half the public was invited to believe that a serious bomb plot had been stopped on the edge of the Cotswolds. The authorities’ own conduct since then tells a smaller story. Suspects in a live plot to bomb an airbase are not usually back on the streets within 36 hours. Either the evidence is thinner than Sunday’s headlines suggested, or the state is asking us to trust it without showing why. Either there was a viable explosive device, or there was not. The public is owed the answer. 

If there was a working device, releasing five men without charge after so short a time is extraordinary, and ministers should explain it. If there was not, the country deserves to know why Sunday’s story looks so different by Monday. Bail in national-security cases is not unheard of: in a separate case, the husband of Labour MP Joani Reid and two other men were bailed after being arrested by counter-terrorism officers on suspicion of spying for China. What is unusual is the distance between the drama of the operation and the modesty of its result.

WHO HAS BEEN BRIEFING, AND WHY? 

Before anyone had been charged, the Daily Telegraph reported that police are understood to suspect Iran as the most likely state actor. The Iranian Embassy in London “categorically” rejected the claim. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting then said the farmer who raised the alarm “had a partial picture”. She had tried the base’s own hotline, got no answer, dialled 999, and later told the BBC the authorities had “dropped the ball”. Context matters here. In March, Keir Starmer, then Prime Minister, allowed US strikes on Iranian missile sites to be launched from Fairford. A government that has tied British soil to an American war has an obvious interest in a story about Iranian aggression on English soil. That does not make the story false. It means the story should be tested in a courtroom, not settled by anonymous briefings to friendly newspapers.

ONE LAW, FOR EVERYONE 

The principled answer to Basingstoke is not to demand that the Fairford men be locked up. It is to insist on the same standard for everyone. The presumption of liberty before trial belongs to a far-right activist accused of slashing a dinghy and to five Londoners picked up near an airbase. Those who want the state to show its evidence in one case should want it in the other. The left forgot this once. The right is forgetting it now. Thomas’s lawyers will apply again at Portsmouth Crown Court. The Fairford investigation continues. In both cases the question is the same, and it is the only one that should matter: what can the state prove? Justice is judged on evidence, not headlines, and nobody should be jailed or cleared by press briefing.

The Wood For The Trees

Suspected terrorists do not get bail. So that’s that. According to the fabled farmer, the Police have not contacted her to ask what she saw, but there were between eight and 10 men in the woods near RAF Fairford, yet only five have been arrested. If those London boys from central casting had been caught redhanded with explosives in that vicinity, then they would have been charged by now. But if their hands were red, then it was from red diesel, although their oil drums were empty, so they must not yet have contributed to the 120 per cent increase in fuel theft from farms compared to last year, with 8000 litres of diesel stolen in March from a farm only 24 miles away.

Such crimes result in no small measure from Donald Trump’s war, but any other attempt to pin this on Iran has been laughed out from Tehran to Tetbury, so while it cannot be ruled out in what was already the beleaguered Gloucestershire Constabulary, regime change in Iran seems most unlikely to follow from this even indirectly. Regime change to what? There are two realistic possibilities. One is the weirdest political cult in the world, the People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (Mojahedin-e-Khalq). That has been based in exile since 1981, leaving it no constituency in a country of which half the population was under 30, yet the longstanding neoconservative and liberal-interventionist aim was to install it in Tehran, so the Americans relocated it to Albania between 2013 and 2016. It remains there, not without local resistance, while also maintaining a considerable presence in the France of Emmanuel Macron, as well as an office in Cricklewood.

Consider how the world turns, since that outfit was headquartered for many years in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, where it participated in atrocities committed by the Iraqi Revolutionary Guard. During the Iraq War, Biden’s, Bush’s and Blair’s Boys bombed the PMOI/MEK into surrender, as part of a deal with Iran to hand over certain al-Qaeda suspects who were of course in any case opponents of the Iranian regime. Oh, how the world does turn. Opponents of the Iraq War were screamed down as Islamists and revolutionary Marxists due to the presence of a few of each in our enormous ranks. But these people really did and do manage the remarkable feat of being both, yet they were nevertheless closely allied to Saddam Hussein.

The other possibility is Reza Pahlavi, hitherto a ridiculous fantasist supported by almost no one else in the world apart from a mostly elderly three per cent of Iranian-Americans, heavily concentrated in and around Los Angeles. But the cause of Henry Tudor was ridiculous once. We now know that the Whig magnates were in constant contact with the Jacobite court in exile, just in case. Bourbon and Bonaparte Restorations were romantic fantasies until they happened. People scoffed at the Eastern European governments in exile in London until they were installed in their own capitals. Why, the overthrown Tsar of Bulgaria even came back as Prime Minister. And here we are.

Rajavi is most put out. Using her stage name, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, she alleges that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been infiltrating demonstrations and shouting for the Shah, or else overdubbing recordings of demonstrations in those terms and circulating them on social media. In every case of the former, says Rajavi, the real demonstrators have responded with her own slogans of opposition both to the Supreme Leader and to the Shah. Like the Eskandari founders of the Tudeh Party, she is a member of the Qajar dynasty that reigned until the Pahlavis overthrew it in 1925. As was the great Mohammad Mosaddegh, but that does provide some context.

In calling for Pahlavi himself to run Iran, all the old munchers of freedom fries are now advocating an absolute monarchy. The hardest British republicanism is among the Blairites. Such are the centrists who, agreeing with the populist Right in principle as they usually do, are also cheering on the war against Iran. They think that monarchy is backward, as any American or Israeli politician or commentator does axiomatically. And like those, they think that Iranians want and need a monarchy, albeit one that turned 100 only last December and which reigned for all of 54 years in the vast sweep of Persian history. Remember, though, that it is we who have doubts who are the racists.

Blue Lights, Dark Orange

Tomorrow’s return of Blue Lights is the most serendipitous piece of the BBC scheduling since House of Cards in November 1990.

Far from a line’s having been crossed at Drumcree, the point is that a line has not been crossed. Who are now The Men Behind The Wire?

Although it has aged dramatically, the Orange Order has survived 29 years without this parade, marching at hundreds of other locations. This one did not seem to commemorate anything especially important.

But the murder of the Quinn brothers, in particular, hung over it, and not from the distant past or with disputed facts. Its revival would have been sheer bad taste. It still would be. Why do this now? To what end?

Not Taken In

By hosting the American bases, Britain is up to its eyeballs in the war on Iran, and Iran is reacting accordingly, as it has always been clear that it would. The court media are being allowed to fly a helicopter over RAF Fairford, which ought in any case to be called USAF Fairford to end the pretence, and to convey the images obtained to the users of social media, complete with the locations of, well, pretty much everything on the site. As even Frank Gardiner puts it, “I don’t understand why Donald Trump is saying we had these people under view for a long time. I don’t know where he got that from, because if they did then how on earth were they allowed to wander round Gloucestershire putting on masks and driving vans allegedly with explosives in them?” As Paul Knaggs writes:

At a quarter to one on Sunday morning, ‘police got a call’ about three vehicles heading towards RAF Fairford. By breakfast, around 85 households in Whelford had been told to leave their homes. A 400-metre cordon surrounded the vans, and an Army bomb-disposal team was working through them. Five men were in custody. They were arrested first under the Explosives Act, then on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. Counter Terrorism Policing has taken over the investigation. Two months earlier, the man responsible for the defence of this country told us not to worry too much.

On Sunday 26 July, Iran’s foreign ministry had just warned that Britain would “bear responsibility” for letting American forces strike Iran from British soil. BBC Breakfast asked Wes Streeting whether Iran could target the UK. “I think we shouldn’t put too much stock in the sabre-rattling of Iran,” he said, and added that Britain would not be intimidated. That same month, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were more specific. According to the Tasnim news agency, they declared any base used to invade Iranian territory a legitimate target, and they cited bomber flights from Fairford by name.

RAF Fairford Iran Threat Was Explicit in July 

It is worth being precise here, because precision is what was missing in July. Nobody has established that Iran had anything to do with Whelford. Police have not said who the five men are or what was in those vans. Reports say a possible Iranian connection is one line of inquiry. That is all it is. If this turns out to be something else entirely, this publication will say so. But the case against Streeting’s answer never depended on how Sunday turned out. There is a fair defence of what he said: a Defence Secretary should not give a hostile regime the satisfaction of visible British panic, and some composure comes with the job. Agreed. But refusing to be intimidated is one thing, and telling the public not to take a threat seriously is another. The first is resolve.

The second is a judgement about risk, and it was a poor one. British security officials have repeatedly said that proxies linked to Iran were behind arson and sabotage attempts on British soil, and they have warned that Tehran could widen its targets if the war dragged on. The threat was not theoretical when Streeting dismissed it. It was already in the government’s own intelligence reporting.

Then there is the part Westminster would rather we skipped. Fairford is not a random dot on a map. It became worth threatening because of a political choice. In March, Keir Starmer allowed American bombers to fly what he called “specific and limited defensive” missions against Iran from Gloucestershire. Burnham inherited that arrangement and kept it. There was no vote in Parliament, and no honest conversation with the people living beside the runway. Nobody asked Whelford whether it wanted to host the launch pad for a war the government insists it is not fighting. The residents were simply woken in the night and sent to the leisure centre. 

That is the real charge. The problem is not one clumsy phrase from a minister. It is that a government put British soil in the line of fire and then told the public the fire was mostly noise. Streeting should now answer three questions, in Parliament rather than on a breakfast sofa. What security assessment lay behind his July remarks? What was done to protect Fairford and the villages around it? Does he still think the threat deserves so little attention? And MPs should finally get a vote on whether British bases go on serving this war. You cannot lend out the runway and then call the consequences sabre-rattling.

And as Ricky D. Hale writes:

For the past few months, we’ve been told by people with a crystal ball that an attack on UK soil was imminent, and now it’s finally happened. There was an incident at RAF Fairford last night that resulted in 85 homes being evacuated. The media would like you to know this incident was terrifying. So terrifying, in fact, that you should probably get ready for war. This is an emerging story, but here’s what I’ve managed to piece together so far. Given the media seems to be making this up as it goes along, some of the details are probably gonna change. Needless to say, they have plot holes to fill.

A farmer was driving home in the early hours of the morning and she noticed three white vans blocking the road. No one was inside them. She turned around and spotted a bunch of Middle Eastern-looking boys running off into the woods. Those woods were incredibly dark, but thankfully, she has the eyes of an owl. She was able to work out their ethnicity through the shadow of the trees, despite the fact they were wearing masks. She called an emergency line that locals had been given for just such a scenario, but no one could be bothered to answer. She called 999 and police came out within ten minutes of her call. When they arrived, they said they’d first been notified nearly an hour ago, but hadn’t bothered doing anything. There were no routine security patrols around the base either. It’s basically the sloppiest security effort since Netanyahu gave standdown orders on October 7.

Luckily for the police, those Middle-Eastern-looking boys were still hanging around 25 minutes later and were arrested under the Explosives Act. We are told the vans had been driving around the base for hours before they parked up. It’s like they were making their arrival as visible as possible and then they just waited around to be caught. Either it was deliberate or they were just as useless as base security. Somehow it gets even worse. The vans were parked just six metres from houses, and the company names and telephone numbers on them were fake. Yet it took police around five hours to give evacuation orders. Maybe they knew the vans weren’t a threat, or maybe they’re staggeringly incompetent. I guess it could be both.

Prior to the incident, the base was on its highest alert, and one local said they’d been stopped at gunpoint by Americans. If you didn’t know, this is an American base on our soil, or a “fort” as Trump called it. The US president was giving interviews about the incident shortly after it happened. He said “it worked out great”, which is an odd choice of words, don’t you think? Trump said the US had been investigating the suspects for a long time. Not sure if he meant “investigating” or actually meant “working with”. All I know is the British are insisting the arrests weren’t intelligence-led and that a farmer basically saved the country.

We are now being told by the war-hungry media it was Iran, Iran, Iran… or maybe Russia, according to one news reader who mumbled something about this is why we need tactical nukes. Yelp. Now I’m still not clear what these “Iranians” were hoping to achieve. Park vans packed with explosives near a base and blow the whole thing up? Unless they had a nuke, best they’d achieve is damage to a few nearby houses and trees. If the Iranians wanted to pull this off, they would not hire a bunch of kids to drive in circles for hours around a base that’s on its highest alert and then hide in the woods until they were caught. They would quickly launch drones and disappear.

It seems more likely this was a performance rather than a serious attack. Shortly after it happened, we had a news crew flying above Fairford in a helicopter, showing the location of B1 Stealth Bombers and other sensitive things. If there was a real threat, that’s the last thing they would allow. Now you have to ask yourself which parties would benefit from this. Israel needs us to join its war, the US needs to keep using Fairford to bomb Iran, and the UK needs to justify its involvement. Even though we attacked Iran first, they will probably spin it into something like this: “Iran is attacking the UK, even though we are a neutral party. Therefore we have no choice but to get involved”. This would be a terrible legal and moral argument, but it just needs to convince stupid people. We have to make sure stupid people are not taken in by this crap.

The only way to have these questions asked in Parliament is for Holborn and St Pancras to elect George Galloway.

Fort? Four?

Some newer editions of the clearly AI picture of the RAF Fairford arrestees show five of them after all, but the original depiction of four, to illustrate the announcement of five arrests, is still out there and always will be. In either case, none of them looks Russian, and at least one does not look at all Middle Eastern, either.

Although neither is very plausible, the American claim to have had these men under surveillance for "a long time" is wholly incompatible with the British claim to have picked them up after a chance tip-off from a member of the public who had spotted them going for a walk in the woods in the early hours of the morning.

And Donald Trump calls RAF Fairford "our fort". With everyone from Peter Hitchens to Will Hutton calling for a British Gaullism, then not only are the American bases on our soil among the most obvious places to start, but they are by some distance the most urgent.

And Its Colours They Are Fine?

Camp beds? Sleeping bags on the floor? How are those three dozen old age pensioners in Drumcree being accommodated overnight in whichever church hall or Orange hall they were waiting to walk? 

Sinn Féin has been wrongfooted by Breandán Mac Cionnaith and Company Limited, while all three Unionist parties have effectively conceded leadership to Jamie Bryson, as well as returning the Orange Order to centre stage. What times.

Everything about either side of this dispute is utterly alien when viewed from almost anywhere in Great Britain, and I submit that everything about either side of this dispute is also utterly alien when viewed from almost anywhere in the 26 Counties.

Controlling The Epistemic Environment

They would appear to shed like snakeskins, so have the Russian passports been “found” yet? It does not look it, but if that photograph were genuine, then it would most plausibly show dealers who had been “caught” delivering to the American airmen at RAF Fairford, where Yulia Skripal had read out a prepared statement on 23 May 2018 before vanishing into thin air. On 18 May, Sergei Skripal had been discharged from hospital. Yulia had been discharged on 9 April. On 12 March, the front page of The Times had announced that Sergei was dead. 2018 was an Easter for the ages. In the dead of night and from 30 miles away, those “terror suspects”, four in number and at least one of them Middle Eastern-looking only if all coloureds looked the same to you, were apprehended in less than half an hour after an unidentified farmer, having supposedly spotted five men in balaclavas whom she was nevertheless able to identify as being of Middle Eastern appearance, had made a call to Gloucestershire Police.

Ah, Gloucestershire. As a Health Minister during the pandemic, does Nadine Dorries agree with the view expressed from the platform of last year’s Reform UK conference that it was “highly likely that the Covid vaccines have been a factor, a significant factor, in the cancer of members of the Royal Family”? Was the man whom David Lammy knew to have grown a cervix an earlier identity of the woman whose breasts Zack Polanski hypnotised to grow larger? But look, politicians are an odd lot. A distinguished Labour councillor repeatedly tried to convince me that Jesus had been an extraterrestrial. The Blair court featured Carole Caplin and her clairvoyant mother, the Temazcal of Nancy Aguilar and the stone circle of the wonderfully monikered Jack Temple, Cherie’s BioElectric Shield that had been given to her by Hillary Clinton, and much else besides. Temple was also a homeopath, and Jeremy Hunt promoted homeopathy (is the King using it to treat his cancer?) while he was Health Secretary. From 2017 to 2019, the Government’s majority was provided by Young Earth creationists. And a long-serving Conservative MP really and truly believed that the Government of this country was controlled by a witches’ coven in Gloucestershire, the county of which Paul Knaggs writes:

At a quarter to one on Sunday morning, somebody in Whelford picked up the phone. Three unfamiliar vans had arrived in a village of a few dozen homes on the edge of one of the most strategically important airfields in Europe. The caller did the ordinary, sensible thing. Julian Tubsbery, evacuated from his home in the early hours, told the BBC that the vans turned up in the middle of the village and a resident reported them to police at once.

By daylight the village had been emptied. A 400-metre cordon surrounded the vehicles while Army bomb-disposal specialists examined them, around 85 households were advised to leave, and a nearby leisure centre was opened for those with nowhere else to go. Aerial footage appeared to show a bomb-disposal robot moving between three white vans in woodland near the base. This is a live counter-terrorism investigation. What follows separates what the authorities have confirmed from what is being reported, and both from what is being guessed.

WHAT IS CONFIRMED

Gloucestershire Police’s Assistant Chief Constable, Richard Ocone, set out the sequence on Sunday afternoon. Police received a call at around 12.45am about three suspicious vehicles travelling towards RAF Fairford; armed officers responded and arrested five men in the Whelford area on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act. The men were then further arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act, contrary to Section 5 of the Terrorism Act. That offence sits in the Terrorism Act 2006, and it carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. It criminalises conduct in preparation for an attack, which is precisely why it is used when police believe they have intervened before anything happened.

Counter Terrorism Policing now leads the inquiry. Its national coordinator, Deputy Assistant Commissioner Vicki Evans, said: “We are in the early stages of an investigation, and five men remain in custody.” Under counter-terrorism law the men can be held for up to 14 days before charge. They have not been identified, and no motive has been suggested. Gloucestershire Police had earlier said: “We believe this incident is contained.” A government spokesperson said Prime Minister Andy Burnham is receiving updates. Five men, three vans, arrests under explosives and terrorism law, an Army disposal operation and a national counter-terrorism investigation. On its own, that is serious enough. It does not need embellishing.

WHAT IS NOT CONFIRMED 

Police have not said what was in the vans. That matters, because parts of the media have already decided. One outlet reported that the men were discovered with explosives; the police statements say nothing of the kind. They describe an arrest on suspicion and an examination that was still under way. Suspicion is not a finding, and an examination is not a result.

Nor have police explained the images of several arrested men, shirtless and handcuffed, that circulated on Sunday. The Daily Mail published video purporting to show several men under arrest in the early hours, apparently shirtless with their arms behind their backs. The defence website The Aviationist suggested they had likely been made to undress as a precaution against suicide vests. That is a plausible inference. It is not a police statement, and it should not be reported as fact. Claims that the SAS was deployed are circulating online. The Tribune can find no confirmation from the police or the Ministry of Defence. The confirmed military presence is the Army’s explosive ordnance disposal team.

Finally, and most importantly, police have not said that RAF Fairford was the target. Their words are that the vans were seen travelling towards it. Mr Ocone asked the public not to speculate but to follow official channels for updates. That request deserves to be honoured, not least because five men who have been charged with nothing are entitled to a fair trial if it comes to one. Whelford’s residents spent Sunday in a leisure centre because of a decision taken in Whitehall and Washington.

A BASE THAT WAS ALREADY BRACED 

What makes Sunday’s arrests harder to dismiss as chance is what happened in the days before them. Spotters reported alerts over the base’s tannoy on 26 September, aircraft being dispersed across the airfield, crash gates blocked and reinforced, and an apparent move to FPCON Delta. A local resident told PA Media that very heavy vehicles, including big tractors, had been placed across all the gates in recent weeks.

FPCON Delta is the top rung of the US military’s force-protection ladder. It applies where an attack has happened or where intelligence indicates terrorist action against a specific location is imminent. It has not been officially confirmed at Fairford. Open-source monitors reported Delta at Fairford and Charlie at Lakenheath and possibly Mildenhall, and the US Air Force’s reply was unrevealing: “For operational security reasons we will not discuss specific force protection measures.” One British outlet claims Lakenheath has confirmed it is operating at FPCON Charlie, but it does not say who confirmed it or how, so this article treats both alert levels as reported rather than established.

The reported posture is itself the story. If the American command raised protection at Fairford before the vans arrived, then somebody had intelligence of a threat. Whether British police acted on the same intelligence, or whether a vigilant villager got there first, is something the public is entitled to know once the investigation allows.

WHY FAIRFORD, AND WHY NOW 

Fairford is not a quiet training field. It has been used by US B-1 bombers targeting Iran and is a forward operating location for US Global Strike Command. After the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February, the British government allowed the American military to use the base to strike Iranian missile sites. Ministers said in March that they had agreed to US requests to use British bases for “specific and limited defensive purposes.”

The following is The Tribune’s view, not established fact. Whatever the ministerial language, that decision made Fairford a front-line installation in a live war. A war does not stay politely inside the perimeter fence. Its risks spread into the lanes and cottages around it, to people who were never asked and never voted on it. Whelford’s residents spent Sunday in a leisure centre because of a decision taken in Whitehall and Washington. They carried the cost of that decision before anyone in government had explained it to them.

None of this establishes who the five men are or what they intended, and the Tribune draws no conclusion on either. It does mean that the government owes Parliament a statement when the investigation permits. That statement should cover what threat assessment lay behind the reported security escalation at US-used bases in the days before Sunday, whether local communities were warned, and whether the terms of US use of British airfields are being reviewed in light of the risk they now evidently carry.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT 

Counter Terrorism Policing has up to two weeks to charge, release or seek to extend detention. The Army’s findings on the vans will decide much of the story. Until then, the honest position is the one the evidence supports: a serious incident, a swift and apparently effective police response, and a series of large questions that nobody in authority has yet answered. Credit for Sunday belongs first to whoever made that call at 12.45am. The rest of us owe it to them, and to the five men who have not been convicted of anything, to wait for the facts. Whelford never chose to live beside a war. The least it is owed is the truth about what drove into the village at a quarter to one on a Sunday morning.

We stand little chance of getting that truth, but we would stand even less if we were still or back in the EU, as Norman Lewis writes:

Something significant happened in Strasbourg this week, yet hardly anybody seems to have noticed. No, it wasn’t the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s annual State of the European Union speech. Rather, it was the European Parliament’s decision to endorse new measures designed to tackle ‘foreign interference’ in European politics. It’s a decision that will have enormous consequences for the future of democracy on the continent. The European Parliament was voting specifically on a European Parliament Special Committee report on the so-called European Democracy Shield. Parliament was effectively deciding whether to turn the Democracy Shield, an already existing project designed to ‘bolster democracy against foreign interference’, into a permanent institutional apparatus.

Ursula von der Leyen first proposed the Democracy Shield in 2024, and the European Commission formally unveiled it in November 2025. Its stated purpose is to protect European democracy against disinformation, foreign interference and increasingly sophisticated hybrid threats. Its key legal instrument, within a large armoury of laws, is the Digital Services Act – the law that enables the European Commission to determine what can or cannot be said online – with punitive fines for social-media platforms that do not comply. The ostensible focus of the Democracy Shield is what the EU calls ‘foreign information manipulation and interference’ (FIMI), by which it means a largely ‘non-illegal pattern of intentional and coordinated manipulative behaviour capable of damaging political processes and democratic values within [the EU’s] member states’.

This week’s vote confirms that the Democracy Shield is not really about FIMI. Its main objective is to police and control Europe’s domestic information environment. The machinery may appear to have been created with foreign threats in mind. But its focus is clearly on Europeans. It allows the EU to exercise authority over what information citizens encounter in their everyday lives. Asserting that opposition to EU immigration policies, for example, is the result of FIMI, which the Commission relentlessly does, allows the EU to delegitimise opposition to said immigration policies.

This is why this week’s vote matters: Brussels has chosen to consolidate the anti-democratic trajectory in European politics. The vote will entrench the power of the Commission’s European Centre for Democratic Resilience – an already existing hub connecting EU institutions, national governments and civil society – giving it its own mandate, dedicated budget and the ‘capacity to act’. What was originally conceived as a coordinating network will now become a permanent European institution for monitoring and controlling EU citizens’ information environment. The phrasing of the European Parliament’s report indicates the censorial intent. It explicitly refers to disinformation produced by ‘foreign and domestic actors’. It says the Digital Services Act should ensure ‘due prominence’ for ‘verified sources’. Finally, it calls for digital rules to protect ‘information integrity’ ‘during and outside election periods’.

A better name for the Democracy Shield would be the Ministry of Truth. It has shifted its focus from foreign interference to ‘domestic actors’. Its remit has expanded from regulating information environments during elections to doing so ‘outside’ elections, too – in other words, all the time. And the distinction between stopping covert manipulation and managing legitimate political disagreement has been blurred in a deliberate attempt to gain more control over what people can read online.

After all, who decides what is a ‘verified source’ and what should be given ‘due prominence’? Who decides whether a political argument is disinformation or a legitimate viewpoint? These questions go to the heart of democratic life. The consolidation and expansion of the EU’s Democracy Shield will only strengthen Brussels’ burgeoning censorship-industrial complex. It has already created ‘trusted flaggers’ and a network of ‘fact-checker’ NGOs. Platforms formally retain responsibility for deciding whether content is illegal, but with the threat of huge fines for non-compliance, they are effectively censoring at Brussels’ behest.

The extensive fact-checking infrastructure is set to expand exponentially. In March, the Commission awarded €5million to a project led by the European Fact-Checking Standards Network to strengthen fact-checking across Europe, create a repository of fact-checks and establish an emergency-response capacity. The Commission has separately provided €2.5million to continue the European Digital Media Observatory, whose new mandate includes monitoring and analysing online information to support ‘situational awareness’, particularly around elections and crises. The European Parliament vote this week has thus consolidated an interconnected governance system, linking together everyone from the Commission to the platforms, to the fact-checkers, to the EU-funded civil-society organisations, all in the name of regulating European citizens’ information environment.

The author of the report on the Democracy Shield, Swedish MEP Tomas Tobé, still insists that the shield’s objective is to counter foreign interference, Russian bots and electoral manipulation, not to regulate free speech. This is disingenuous in the extreme. What he and his committee have ushered in and legitimised is an administrative infrastructure designed to control what people say and think.

This is a breathtaking attack on democracy. After all, democracy rests on the presumption that citizens are morally and intellectually capable of engaging with competing arguments, judging them and deciding for themselves. Controlling the epistemic environment in which those citizens form their judgements runs counter to that presumption. Citizens are now regarded and treated less as autonomous political subjects than as vulnerable inhabitants of a dangerous information environment. They therefore require continuous protection, monitoring and management. The decisive struggle over free speech in Europe is no longer merely about what people are legally permitted to say. It is now about something broader – namely, who decides what Europeans are most likely to see, whom they are encouraged to trust and which ideas are classified as risks. The fight for free speech has reached a pivotal point in Europe.

Sunday, 27 September 2026

Pre-Loaded

New Labour has always been a party of extremely right-wing people who lacked the social connections to make it in the Conservative Party, and who had been brought up to spit on everyone else where they had grown up, but who had discovered in their first 36 hours at university that they were in fact nowhere near the top of the class system, a discovery that had embittered them for life.

Therefore, although Gordon Brown kept a lid on it, the Blairites have always wanted to replace benefits with vouchers that would not have been exchangeable for the alcohol, cigarettes or betting slips on which they assumed their parents' hated clients to spend every penny. Such is the voice of Paul Richards, who demands conscription for Ukraine and the imprisonment of critics of the war, egged on by Jacob Rees-Mogg. As ever, ignore anyone who advocated a military intervention unless you could imagine that person as an 18-year-old in battle.

And as ever, the call for war is coming from the liberal bourgeoisie, including the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, and the Green Party. That is the class least likely to join the Armed Forces voluntarily, or to see combat even in periods of conscription. Operationally, that is of course just as well. But if there is not a strong enough case for conscription, then there is not a strong enough case for war. Unless a country needed to mobilise its entire healthy and able-bodied male population of fighting age, then it is not under sufficient threat to justify going to war at all. Having run out of men, Ukraine is now conscripting women. Germany would go the same way. As would Britain. At Holborn and St Pancras, the only way to vote in solidarity with the protesting German teenagers is to elect George Galloway.

That is also the only way to vote against the dehumanising, and administratively nightmarish, scheme of one of the biggest expenses claimants in Parliament, Helen Whately (née Lightweight), to reduce Universal Credit claimants, 40 per cent of whom are in work, to the old separate queue for free school meals, recipients of which are even now not always allowed everything on the menu. Speaking on behalf of the party of PPE, the Rwanda Scheme and the Bibby Stockholm, Whately seems blissfully unaware that the present benefits system differed from that bequeathed by Iain Duncan Smith and Esther McVey only in Keir Starmer's and Rachel Reeves's halving for new claimants of the Limited Capability for Work-related Activity aspect of Universal Credit, which was the only part of the whole edifice to require one to have proved, with the most extreme difficulty, medical unfitness for work. Disgraceful Labour MPs, persons described above, accepted that as the "compromise" to save PIP, which it can never be said too many times is an in-work benefit, without which many of today's taxpayers would be unable to work at all.

Hardly anyone smokes anymore, but every time that a claimant goes to the pub, then that supports someone's employment. Not that that happens very often on £50 per week. And as for gambling, successive governments have raised enormous revenue by insinuating it into every area of life, while third and fourth generation middle-class teachers in primary schools are to identify potential future NEETs so that third and fourth generation middle-class teachers in secondary schools might deliver to them a curriculum designed by and for local adult gaming centres, as well as local vape shops, phone shops, nail bars, tattoo parlours, carwashes, mini-marts, Turkish barbers, American candy shops, and lap dancing clubs, there being nothing else. In the absence of trade unions, no one would be able to come up through them to enter the political process, which would therefore be reserved for those who had followed Andy Burnham to Cambridge or Lucy Powell to Oxford and to King's College London.

Red, Not Orange

Why doesn’t the Irish football team march down the Garvaghy Road while the Orange Order played Israel at the football? But in 1981, although an IRA bomb went off at an oil terminal in Shetland while the then Queen was nearby, it caused nothing more than minor damage to the boiler. Unlike the UVF, the IRA never otherwise bombed Scotland. It never bombed Wales at all. So it is not for nothing that the Sinn Féin of Northern Ireland’s First Minister is now identified as a sister party by the SNP of Scotland’s First Minister, never mind by the Plaid Cymru of Wales’s First Minister, both a party and a politician that have in their time been what the young people would now call adjacent. Since we see the form that English nationalism also takes, then the case for the Union needs to be made here as it is made everywhere else.

There are no prescription charges in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, so there should be none in England. There are no hospital car parking charges in Scotland or Wales, so there should be none in England. Eye and dental checkups are free in Scotland, so they should be free in England. And so on. As a sovereign state with its own free-floating, fiat currency, the United Kingdom has as much of that currency as it chooses to issue to itself, with readily available fiscal and monetary means of controlling any inflationary effect, means that therefore need to be under democratic political control. None of that is true of the eurozone, which an independent Scotland or Wales would have to join in order to join the EU, and into which incorporation into the Irish Republic would incorporate the Six Counties.

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Egypt’s Warning To Israel

We have known for three weeks about the warning from the Emiratis. And now, Vivian Salama writes:

When Israel’s leaders gathered in Jerusalem on September 26, 2023, to mark the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the surprise assault by Syria and Egypt as a cautionary tale, one of missed intelligence warnings and self-delusion. “We do not underestimate any threat,” he said.

Roughly two hours before Netanyahu took the stage, a chartered Cessna jet linked to Egypt’s intelligence service had touched down at Ben Gurion Airport, about 30 miles away. The jet rolled to a stop in an isolated section of the airport used for sensitive diplomatic and security missions. Abbas Kamel, Egypt’s intelligence chief and one of the region’s most influential security officials, had come to Israel on a most sensitive mission.

Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood–aligned terrorist group that controlled Gaza, appeared to be mobilizing for a major attack, Kamel said, according to Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, U.S., and European officials who were briefed about his visit after October 7. The window to prevent a disaster was closing. He recommended that the Israeli government grant Hamas economic concessions to avert conflict. His message, according to one former Israeli official later briefed on the visit, was: If you don’t change course, Gaza is going to blow up in your faces.

Kamel didn’t provide Israeli officials with a date or specific information on what turned out to be a multipronged attack on Israel less than two weeks later, on October 7. And it’s not clear exactly with whom he met. The Egyptian plane remained on the ground in Israel for 67 minutes, according to an Israeli-airport-authority flight log, before returning to Cairo. (Independent flight-tracking applications confirm the plane’s journey.)

What the Israeli officials did with Kamel’s warning remains an open question three years after the most devastating surprise attack in Israel’s history. But officials from seven different countries I spoke with said that Kamel’s visit should have set off alarms across the top ranks of the Israeli government. Netanyahu attended a classified briefing following the Yom Kippur War commemoration, according to his public schedule, and soon after approved some economic concessions to Hamas. Officials who spoke with me stressed that the mere presence of the Egyptian intelligence chief in Israel should have demonstrated the urgency of the issue. “The messenger was the message,” a former Israeli official told me. “There is no world,” this official said, where top Israeli officials meet with the head of Egyptian intelligence “and Bibi is not aware.”

Netanyahu’s office, in the days after the attack, denied that he’d received any warnings, directly or indirectly, from Egypt over the situation in Gaza. Spokesmen for Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi didn’t respond to my repeated requests for comment when I asked about Kamel’s visit. The then-head of Netanyahu’s national-security council, Tzachi Hanegbi, denied to me this week that there had been a visit from Kamel or an Egyptian warning of any kind.

Kamel’s 2023 visit, details of which have not been previously reported, underscores what dozens of sources have told me: that the Israeli government was repeatedly told of threatening activity by Hamas in the lead-up to October 7.

A United Nations envoy who was in the Middle East at the time publicly warned of a latent conflict that could bring “grave consequences” while privately scrambling to defuse tensions between Israel and Hamas. The president of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed, called Netanyahu to warn about the possibility of an imminent attack, after being briefed on intelligence findings from Egyptian and Palestinian sources, according to U.S. and Arab officials with knowledge of the call. Earlier this month, Israel’s Haaretz reported the leaders’ call; I confirmed with multiple officials that the call took place. Netanyahu denied the report and has threatened to sue Haaretz. The UAE didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Current and former Israeli, Arab, and U.S. officials tell me that they all experienced the same phenomenon in 2023: an arrogance on the part of Netanyahu bred by the deep-seated belief that Israel had the upper hand against Hamas. “It seemed clear that, for whatever reason, the West Bank was their priority,” a former senior U.S. official involved in talks with the Israeli government told me. “They were confident—even cocky—that they had the situation under control.”

The Hamas attack, 11 days after Kamel’s visit, resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people, primarily civilians, and the abduction into Gaza of 251 hostages during coordinated raids on communities, military bases, and an outdoor music festival. Israel launched a crushing retaliatory campaign that killed more than 73,000 Palestinians in Gaza, the majority of whom were civilians, according to the territory’s Health Ministry. Hamas’s leadership and thousands of combatants have been killed. The attacks on Israel and the Gaza war that followed produced one of the more devastating humanitarian tragedies of the 21st century.

The Netanyahu government’s stunning lack of preparation before the October 7 invasion is perhaps the most important issue in next month’s Israeli election. Netanyahu, who has been prime minister longer than any other politician in Israel’s history, is facing the most serious challenge of his career.

Many Israelis, including Netanyahu’s main rival, the former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, have demanded an independent state inquiry into the military and intelligence failures in the run-up to the October 7 attacks. But Netanyahu has continuously refused to set up the kind of independent inquiry that followed past security failures, including the Yom Kippur War. The prime minister has instead attempted to establish a politically appointed commission of inquiry, which he said would include opposition representatives. The attempt was highly controversial; opposition leaders have refused to advance the proposal over concerns that the probe would favor Netanyahu’s government. While the wait for an inquiry continues, dozens of current and former Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, European, and U.S. officials have spoken with me, and their accounts help tell the story of what went wrong that fall.

Since Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David peace accords, in 1978, their relationship can be described as, at best, a cold peace. But the two nations have a common desire to subdue the threat of Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, which borders both countries. Intelligence sharing between Egypt and Israel has thrived, particularly since al-Sisi became president, in 2014—even when their diplomatic relationship founders.

Most of the intelligence reports in the weeks before the October 7 attacks, including Egypt’s, pointed to the renewal of conventional attacks—such as rocket fire—by Hamas and other armed factions in Gaza. They also warned of a spillover of violence into the West Bank. But intelligence sources inside Gaza conveyed to Egypt a more ominous picture, leading Egypt and the UAE to flag to Israel the prospect that something unprecedented was in the works. “For Kamel to go to Israel” for a single hour, an Egyptian official told me about the September 2023 visit, “meant that al-Sisi himself felt: You need to go there and tell them yourself.”

The Israeli government’s focus, however, was elsewhere. The country was already in the grip of its deepest domestic crisis in decades. For months, Israel had been consumed by Netanyahu’s effort to overhaul the judicial system, a constitutional confrontation that was protested by hundreds of thousands and opened deep fissures within the military and within society. And a surge in Israeli-Palestinian violence in the West Bank had already made 2023 the deadliest year in decades for West Bank Palestinians, with Israeli military raids, Palestinian attacks, and settler violence contributing to the combustible atmosphere. Israel surged military personnel and resources into the territory. Biden-administration officials sought to ease tensions in the West Bank while other international and regional negotiators focused on Gaza.

Israel established a comprehensive land, sea, and air blockade of Gaza in 2007, when Hamas seized control of the territory, and crossings at Egypt’s border with Gaza, in Rafah, have been tightly restricted since. Freedom of movement became virtually impossible for the 2.1 million people who lived in the 141-square-mile territory. Israel and Hamas had last fought a war there in May 2021. That 11-day conflict ended in a cease-fire—brokered, notably, by Kamel, among others. Hamas appeared to have little interest in abandoning the uneasy truce. But international observers picked up on signs that the situation inside Gaza was changing. Long before the summer of 2023, one international negotiator in the region told me, contacts were reporting that “something was cooking,” though the details were vague and the signals confusing.

By August, tensions in Gaza had clearly heightened, in part because Qatar froze deliveries of Egyptian fuel that it had been sending to Gaza since 2021. Hamas resold the fuel and used the proceeds to help pay public-sector workers, a key mechanism by which it maintained control in the Strip. Hamas called for demonstrations at the Erez border crossing over Qatar’s delayed aid, as well as other lingering disputes like the treatment of Palestinian prisoners. The crossing is the primary pedestrian gateway between Israel and Gaza and an especially important one for Gazan workers. Israel responded to the protests in mid-September by closing the crossing.

Roughly 18,000 Gazans had permits to work in Israel. After those people were barred from going to work, “the escalation started to come much faster,” one negotiator told me. The Arabic outlet Rai al-Youm, citing Palestinian sources, reported on September 26 that Hamas had conveyed to the Egyptian government that Gaza would explode over the Erez closure. That same day, Kamel’s plane flew to Israel.

Negotiators from Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations scrambled to maintain calm. Hamas officials responded with what one international negotiator described as a broad “shopping list” of demands, including more permits to work inside Israel and the restoration of the fuel-for-public-salaries arrangement with Qatar. After the talks concluded in the final days of September, Hamas agreed to pull people back from the border fence and to try to ease tensions. Israel agreed to reopen the Erez crossing and to restore a medical-supply line into Gaza, adding that it would consider increasing the number of work permits.

Still, the situation remained turbulent. On September 27, 10 days before the attack, Tor Wennesland, the UN’s special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, left Gaza with a stark warning: “The situation inside the Strip is dire and we must avoid another conflict that will have grave consequences for all,” Wennesland wrote on X. A day later, the new arrangement appeared to be taking hold. European diplomats who visited Erez watched as Gazan workers streamed back into Israel.

But negotiators told me it later became clear that Hamas was using the talks as a ploy to buy time while finalizing its attack plans. Documents recovered by Israel from Gaza revealed that Hamas regarded the 2021 conflict as a triumph, and in its aftermath began planning for a breathtakingly large operation. A detailed memorandum from August 2022, apparently handwritten by Yahya Sinwar, then the leader of Hamas in Gaza, laid out much of the operational plan that the group would put into effect the following year. Even as international mediators focused on issues such as work permits and fuel deliveries, believing that these could defuse tensions, Hamas continued its relentless preparations for a massive attack. U.S. and Israeli military analysts told me Israel misinterpreted Hamas’s intentions, concluding that the group had no desire for military confrontation.

Kamel’s visits to Israel are rare. His last known trips were in May and August 2021, following that year’s Israel-Hamas war. After Kamel’s September 2023 trip, Egypt continued to raise the alarm up until two days before the attack, according to U.S., Egyptian, and Israeli officials with direct knowledge of those communications. American and Israeli officials told me it is unclear whether Kamel’s message could have been understood as foretelling the unprecedented attack that followed. Most of the warnings that Israel received in 2023 contained no date, target, or method of attack. But they were frequent and persistent.

Around the same time, Netanyahu received the call from bin Zayed, whose country had normalized relations with Israel only three years earlier. In the call, bin Zayed reportedly sought to convey his assessment that Sinwar was planning a major attack. Like Kamel, bin Zayed urged Netanyahu to make economic concessions to Gaza. But Netanyahu seemed unmoved, two Arab officials familiar with the call told me.

UN negotiators, U.S. officials, and international groups sensed that tensions in Gaza were exceptionally high, but told me they hadn’t been aware of any particular plans for an attack. On September 28, the CIA issued an internal report about a possible Hamas escalation in Gaza, reportedly based in part on foreign intelligence services. U.S. officials told me that report described the possibility that Hamas would launch rockets into Israel over several days. A second report, dated October 5, built on the first but was more analytical than revelatory. Neither detected rehearsals for a coordinated, multipronged attack like the one Hamas carried out two days later.

On October 5, a message from Egypt to Israel also reiterated concerns that the situation was untenable, U.S., Egyptian and Israeli officials said. It provided no date or methodology, but conveyed urgency about a possible attack, the officials said. Egypt also shared its assessments with several other nations in the region, including Saudi Arabia, a senior Gulf Arab official told me. Jordan’s intelligence chief also conveyed concerns to his Israeli counterparts, according to Arab officials, that the situation had grown potentially explosive, especially in the West Bank, and needed to be addressed swiftly. (Spokespeople for Jordan’s government and intelligence service didn’t respond to a request for comment.)

Biden-administration officials told me that neither Egypt nor the UAE shared such warnings with them ahead of October 7. U.S., Egyptian, Arab, and Israeli officials gave me a range of reasons why. Several people told me the warnings were too vague to warrant sharing with the U.S. Other officials, including those from the region, told me it was up to Netanyahu’s government to share the findings with Washington. (U.S. officials I spoke with dismissed this explanation, suggesting that if Egypt or Abu Dhabi had a pressing warning for Israel, Washington should have heard about it from them.) Several months after the attack, CIA Director William Burns was told, almost in passing, about both Kamel’s visit to Israel and bin Zayed’s call, but was not told about the specifics of their outreach, according to U.S., Israeli, and Arab officials.

Two days after the attack, as Israel took stock of the tragedy and its military campaign in Gaza began, Netanyahu’s office rejected press reports that he’d received any outreach from Kamel or Egypt. “The Prime Minister has neither spoken, nor met, with the head of Egyptian intelligence since the formation of the government, neither directly nor indirectly,” his office said on X. But the distinction between direct contact and intelligence passed through aides and other officials would become central to the debate over whether Israel could have done more to anticipate the attacks. On October 11, then–House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul told reporters after a classified briefing for lawmakers that Egypt had warned Israel. “We know that Egypt had warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen,” McCaul said. “I don’t want to get too much into classified, but a warning was given. I think the question was at what level.” (McCaul didn’t respond to my repeated attempts to discuss his comments.)

In the months that followed, Israeli officials described a broader failure to interpret the signals coming from Gaza. In leaked recordings of briefings to bereaved families and residents obtained by Israel’s Channel 12, Herzi Halevi, then the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, described the military establishment as having been “lulled to sleep.” In a separate leaked recording, Halevi told local council chiefs that before the attacks, he had regarded Gaza “as the last border that needed attention.”

Halevi resigned from his position in March 2025, and that June, the head of the Israel Security Agency, Ronen Bar, resigned under pressure over intelligence failures linked to the October 7 attacks. Hanegbi, the head of Netanyahu’s security council, was replaced in October 2025. Kamel, who left Egypt’s General Intelligence Service in October 2024, is now an adviser and special envoy for al-Sisi.

Since the October 7 attacks, Israel not only launched a crushing retaliation in Gaza, but later opened military fronts against Lebanon’s Hezbollah and, this year, a war in Iran. It’s impossible to know what would have happened if the warnings from Kamel and others had been heeded at the time, but it’s hard to imagine that Israel wouldn’t have been better prepared. As it was, the attacks caught the Israeli security services flat-footed. Reserve forces weren’t immediately available after kibbutz communities were attacked, leaving them defended primarily by local, lightly armed civilian volunteer forces from about 6:30 a.m., when the attacks began, to 1:30 p.m., when significant IDF reinforcements arrived.

Netanyahu said in a campaign video clip last month that Israeli security officials failed to immediately wake him on the morning of October 7. “In the lead-up to October, there were so many warning signs, so many indications, that an attack was imminent,” Netanyahu said, without offering any specifics. “Had they woken me up, everything would have looked different. That is the story of October 7th—that is the story.”

Today, Gaza remains in ruins and violence continues, despite efforts by the Biden and Trump administrations to secure a cease-fire. An April assessment by the UN, the World Bank, and the European Union estimated that $71.4 billion would be needed over the next decade for Gaza’s recovery and reconstruction. The great majority of its population remains displaced. Meanwhile, the trauma of October 7 lives on for Israelis. And bereaved families from that day continue to search for answers about how Hamas was able to engage in a devastating attack on Israel that appeared to catch the government completely by surprise.

Reclaiming Social Order


“Only dangerous fanatics refuse to compromise,” my mother used to tell me. And so, several decades later, I entered government ready to compromise; a small price to pay, I thought, for delivering a modicum of relief to the suffering majority who had voted us in. Yet the hardest, and the most pertinent, question kept torturing me: how does one compromise without ending up compromised? Which single compromise would catapult me into the land of the co-opted? For months, I struggled to find the answer, until one revealed itself unexpectedly.

It is an enigma that begets a paradox. On the one hand, trying to pinpoint the pivotal compromise is as futile as trying to seek the single hair that, once lost, admits one into the brotherhood of the bald. On the other hand, just as one glance at me confirms I lack enough hair to count as bald, one glance at Andy Burnham and the vast majority of Europe’s centre-left leaders confirms they are compromised. It is a question that remains pertinent.

But at what point does compromise turn into defection? At what point does practicing the art of conceding judiciously lead one to betray one’s constituency — even to embrace villainy? Indeed, do the villains even know they are villains? Were they aware of a moment when their cascade of compromises finally pushed them beyond the moral pale? I doubt it. The human soul’s capacity for rationalising the vilest of choices is boundless. There is almost no horror perpetrated by one human against another that has not been justified with the principle of the lesser evil.

Interrogate the ghosts of Vidkun Quisling, or his Greek counterpart Georgios Tsolakoglou, and ask them why they agreed to become the Nazis’ puppet premiers in Norway and Greece. They would surely answer that “someone was going to do it”, so it might as well have been them: their complicity was worth the price if it enabled them to shield even a handful of their countrymen from the Nazi menace. That these rationalisations seem laughable in retrospect returns us to the original question: at what point does a sequence of compromises render one compromised?

It was February 2015 when I encountered the sheer banality of Europe’s compromised centre-left leaders. What brought it into sharp focus was the contrast between these hollow men and Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s conservative finance minister and Europe’s high priest of stringent austerity. He was ruthless yet cogent; analytically weak yet intellectually honest; coarse yet comfortingly self-assured. He would say outrageous things, such as “elections cannot be allowed to change economic policy in Europe”. But there was a candour in his delivery and the sense that he was describing the world as he truly saw it. Then came the drudgery of the centre-leftists.

First up was Michel Sapin, France’s finance minister and long-time Socialist Party hack. After embracing me like a brother-in-arms, waxing lyrical about my anti-austerity stance and promising that we would “walk together” to return Europe to the “path of growth”, he led me to the nearby press conference. There, in front of the gathered media, he underwent an instant metamorphosis. Gone was the bonhomie, the common purpose, the condemnation of austerity. Instead, wagging an accusatory finger at me, he out-Schäubled Schäuble with a paean to “discipline” and belt-tightening. Once we were alone, he turned all sweet and comradely again. I stopped him in his tracks, looked him in the eye and demanded to know: “Who are you and what have you done to the Michel I met an hour ago?”

A series of depressingly similar meetings followed only days later, in Berlin. First with Sigmar Gabriel, the leader of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), then with a delegation of parliamentarians representing the German Greens. The worst part of those meetings was not what was said; it was that it was clear they did not mean a word they uttered. And along with the lack of conviction, their banal musings betrayed a complete absence of intellectual backbone — there was no real proposition to disagree with or argument to logically refute.

Leaving those meetings, I wondered how it had come to this. How had the SPD, a party with a history of transforming Germany into a functioning social democracy, ended up with a leader so banal and vacuous and ready to defer to someone like Schäuble? How had the Greens, who in the Seventies had shaken us out of our complicity with the ongoing ecocide, ended up parroting lines that were as boring as they were toxic?

My theory of the centre-left’s long suicide begins in 1971, when Bretton Woods was killed off by the Nixon shock. Back then, Europe’s and Britain’s social democrats used to play the role of go-betweens. Once in government, they would gather the captains of industry and the trades-union leaders around a table where a deal would be struck: a chunk of industrial profits would fund the welfare state and another would be returned to workers in the form of better wages and conditions. However, when Bretton Woods died, money and power shifted from industry to finance.

By the late Seventies, it was pointless to sit the failing industrialists and the leaders of the dwindling trade unions’ around that table. In a world beholden to bankers and traders, the only meaningful bargain that could be struck was one between ministers and financiers. It was a Faustian bargain. Tony Blair in London, Jacques Delors in Paris and then Brussels, Gerhard Schröder in Berlin… all of them offered the bankers permission to go berserk in exchange for sizeable crumbs from their table with which to fund the welfare state — and, lest we forget, their election campaigns. That’s how social democracy limped on until the crash of 2008.

When, in the autumn of that year, the banks went under, those social democrats in power didn’t know what had hit them. Lacking both the analytical capacity to understand the crash and a moral spine to stand up to the financiers, they bailed out not just the banks but the bankers too. The result was austerity for the masses and “socialism” for the bankers, a collapse in investment and a never-ending slump. From that moment onwards, social democracy was on a slippery slope to electoral, ethical and political oblivion.

I wrote about it all in my 2011 book, The Global Minotaur. But it was one thing to have formulated a theory, and quite another to see it written across the centre-leftists’ faces in 2015: the defeat, the compromise, the banality. I remember the feeling as my aeroplane lifted off from Berlin, carrying me back to Athens and to a parliament in which a Nazi party was the third largest: the result of discontent engendered by years of mindless centrist austerity. And I remember how, suddenly, I thought of Fiona.

My first memory of her was when she heckled me, in 1980, during a boisterous students’ union meeting at Essex University. A graduate anthropology student, she believed that everyone, Left and Right, were at it: coveting unfettered power wherever we could get it. Fiona feared that Leftists, like her and me, folks who could not wield power in the City or in Whitehall, sought it instead in students’ unions, socialist groupings, feminist organisations even. Her intense disapproval of me was systemic, not personal. Which is why we became friends.

About a year after our first encounter, I found myself at one of the countless anti-Thatcher gatherings taking place around that time. By coincidence, Fiona was there too, billed to speak. After enduring two hours of tiresome speakers denouncing Thatcher’s social and industrial vandalism, Fiona rose to speak. She was magnificent:

“While listening to the previous speakers, I was thinking to myself: ‘Give me Maggie Thatcher any time! Unlike you, Maggie gets it. We live in a revolutionary moment. The postwar class-war armistice is over. If we want to defend the weak, we can’t be defensive. We need to advocate as she does: out with the old system, in with a brand new one. Not Maggie’s dystopic system, but a brand new one nevertheless. You lot are bandaging corpses while she is digging graves. If I had to choose between you and her, I would choose her every time. Monstrous as she is, Thatcher can at least be subverted. You wouldn’t recognise subversion if it came at you with a barge pole.’”

Her words resounded in my head on that flight in 2015, reminding me why I found my meetings with Schäuble so much more rewarding than encounters with the centre-leftists who were “bandaging corpses” while Schäuble was “digging graves”. Besides the relative joy of conversing with people who mean what they say, there are both short- and long-term reasons why I, as a proud Leftist, prefer self-confident Right-wingers in government to a band of defeated centre-leftists.

Rather than a bunch of compromised pseudo-progressives bandaging some of the walking wounded, I would far prefer to have a Norman Tebbit in power, callously instructing them to “get on your bike”. An unbowed, self-respecting Left would respond by telling the bankers, the spivs and the oligarchs to get on their bike. Alas, the compromised Left does not do this. Instead, it fans a false hope in the hearts of the suffering majority with their empty promises to look after them. That hope is bound to crash on the shoals of reality. And then? Having lost trust in both the centre-right and the centre-left, the electorate has nowhere to turn but the demagogues promising to make them “great again”, to weaponise the border fences, to prepare for war against non-existent enemies, to target the “other”; the Muslim, the Jew, the disabled, the brown people who “pollute” the gene pool. 

Andy Burnham’s new government is a case in point. Having ridden into No. 10 on a wave of hopeful vibes, his unwillingness to clash with the fat cats responsible for Britain’s stagnation will deliver another Budget that taxes the overtaxed and punishes the weak. Thus, the road will have been paved for the fascists to further infect the majority’s broken hearts. Whether this will be Reform, Restore or some even more radicalised Tory party, only time will tell.

Naturally, centre-leftists chastise my unwillingness to support them, painting me as a handmaiden of the Right. I would reply that the Left has a duty to remain in opposition until we get our act together; until we have a plan and a mandate for unseating the oligarchy and implementing a workable, progressive agenda. It is better to be in opposition keeping genuine hope alive, while the establishment Right rampages in government, than for the compromised Left to win power on false promises that are bound to extinguish hope and usher in postmodern varieties of fascism.

It was this thinking that led me, six months after being sworn in as Greece’s finance minister, to resign — knowing full well I would be demonised and confined to the margins of the political system. It was a no-brainer. Remember the question that was torturing me from the first day in office? Would I be able to recognise the lethal compromise that led me to the land of the co-opted?

In the end, it was not hard to recognise. It came when I was told I had a choice: my political career in exchange for signing on the dotted line of an application for a huge credit card (from which the Greek state would draw, to pretend it was repaying its debts); a credit card that would be issued on condition of another austerity package condemning 80% of our people to long-term debt-bondage. I did not sign. But most of my colleagues in that Leftist government did. The result? That party, Syriza, no longer exists, the recalcitrant Right is dominant, and the fascist Right is surging.

Ultimately, the compromised Left anesthetises hope, paving the way for reactionaries of the worst kind. Better be an honest opposition to a Rightist government than a compromised Leftist whose policies breed monsters. This is not a resignation from the aspiration to govern. It is simply a clarification of one thought: the only compromise worth making is the willingness to give up power rather than sign away a people’s future.

And Jonny Ball writes:

“You may not be interested in war,” Leon Trotsky is supposed to have said, “but war is interested in you.” On the eve of his first Labour conference as leader, Andy Burnham is learning this maxim’s grim truth. Facing a deteriorating set of public finances, which threaten to leave his radical domestic agenda stillborn, this is in no small part due to conflict in the Middle East. Just as LBJ’s Great Society was knocked off course by the tactical genius of Ho Chi Minh, “Manchesterism” might be tempered by the Houthis, to say nothing of multilateralism’s fading potency in our increasingly unstable world.

There’s every chance, here, that Burnham was familiar with Trotsky’s quip long before he entered No. 10. Like many Labour statesmen — Tony Blair and Keir Starmer among them — he enjoyed a youthful flirtation with the Russian revolutionary’s ideas. That’s three out of the last four Labour PMs confessing to intellectual dalliances with the founder of the Red Army. Blair and Starmer, alas, achieved high office only to strengthen Britain’s nightmare political economy of bloated arms-length regulatory regimes, rampant rentierism, privatised national assets, and tragicomic levels of state incapacity, leaving us doubly vulnerable to today’s global shocks.

Labour’s latest prime minister claims to be different, promising a rupture in this peculiarly British mode of governance. But these kinds of epochal shifts, revolutionary premierships on the level of Gladstone or Attlee, are rare indeed. Burnham’s own Trotskyist fling was experienced via the contemporary protestations of the Eighties political celebrity Derek “Degsy” Hatton — a sharp-suited Scouse firebrand (and fellow Evertonian) with a predilection for gold watches, expensive tailors, personalised number plates and “vulgar Marxism”. Hatton was the larger-than-life de facto leader of Liverpool City Council when it thrust itself daringly into the national spotlight, setting illegal budgets and implementing mass housebuilding initiatives even as its Whitehall grant was slashed. Hatton offered a New Deal-style, localised and limited Keynesian stimulus effort dressed in revolutionary garb.

Yet that garb was important, as Degsy basked in a kind of belligerent, workerist anti-intellectualism, poking fun at the academic, London-based New Left scene. The Scouse Trot was quick to differentiate the kind of Liverpool socialism he was enacting with what he himself called the “Loony Left” — “more concerned,” Hatton said, “about black mayors and gay rights than… about building new homes.”

A teenaged Andy, fresh-faced and idealistic, would have seen Hatton on TV every night, fighting his birth city’s corner against Thatcherism. And it’s hard not to compare it to Burnham’s own stint as a righteously indignant mayor of Greater Manchester, railing against Covid lockdowns. But where Burnham’s anti-London combativity earned him the moniker “King in the North”, his former hero Degsy eventually became known as “King Rat”. After Hatton and his posse almost bankrupted Liverpool, expelled from Labour, and removed from office, he used his newfound infamy to launch a career in low-rent TV appearances and Christmas pantomimes. Now 78, he’s a successful property developer, albeit one awaiting trial for conspiracy to commit bribery and intimidate witnesses. There’s another instructive lesson for the prime minister: revolutions do have consequences, and often they are not especially positive.

Perhaps that history explains the caution Burnham has shown towards governing so far. To be sure, “resilience” has become the centre-left’s economic watchword, overtaking the “efficiency” of the high neoliberal era. And why not? As the economist Wolfgang Streeck has noted, that hyper-global age entailed a “dictatorship of the lowest marginal cost” — all just-in-time supply chains, outsourced production, and highly mobile capital in search of the cheapest possible inputs. Yet if Burnham has imbibed the critique, and talks about a return to public control, reindustrialisation, and economic security, his fine words have yet to translate into action. Yes, Burnham seems to have learnt from Degsy, be a rebel — but not too much. Yes, embrace socialism — but not yet.

The problem, here, is that Burnham’s party doesn’t necessarily have time for moderation. The era demands a radical rupture because the old order has so palpably failed. As one MP tells me, the prime minister represents Labour’s “last roll of the dice”, to see if there’s life in the old dog yet. It’s a sentiment you can hear elsewhere too. A thoughtful essay by one of Starmer’s former speechwriters recently pondered whether the party would “go gently into the sociological night”, abandon a diminished working class, and lean into its minoritarian status as an institution for progressive public sector workers and professional urban graduates. The nadir of British social democracy experienced under Starmer required a forceful internal response. Yet if MPs acted to remove one serially unpopular leader and install the man that polls and focus groups deemed most acceptable, it’s unclear, as Burnham prepares to take the podium in an airless glass-and-steel convention centre, whether that’ll be enough.

There are reasons to think it won’t be, not least given the looming geopolitical storm clouds. “We’ve all become accustomed to shit economic news over the past 18 years,” says one backbencher. “It’s baked in at this point.” Still, there’s an aching dissonance emerging between the inchoate Burnhamite message of hope and change, and the slow realisation that the light at the end of the tunnel may turn out to be an oncoming train. Certainly, most of the public have not registered the implications of Iranian-backed insurgents holding the global economy hostage. The number of people who think they will be worse off next year has decreased from 40% to 33% since April, with 20% now thinking they’ll be doing better. Yet Britain is more exposed than most, especially since successive prime ministers — Hayekian free-marketeers and former Trotskyists alike — have created a service-based, import-dependent economy, one reliant on foreign capital inflows and buoyant international trade.

The irony, of course, is that Burnham always wanted to be a domestic leader, with cost-of-living salves held up as the great unifying totem of his new regime. But as Trotsky also learnt — when, for instance, his plans for world revolution were stymied by the Poles in 1920 — exogenous events have a way of intruding on even the best-laid plans. With the Bab al-Mandab blocked, inflation expectations are likely to be adjusted upwards. From there, gilt yields will spike accordingly. John Healey’s first Budget anyway seems unlikely to be cheerful.

Perhaps the best Burnham can hope for in the short term is to borrow from Starmer’s book and act the statesman on the world stage. And, to be sure, sanctioning West Bank settlement goods will play well with sections of Labour’s base, just as action on AI safety does to wavering Lib Dems. But that hardly equals a revised settlement on Britain’s place in the new multipolar order. Nor does it solve the problem of our impotence in the face of a Washington hegemon seemingly intent on causing chaos. Burnham is no Mark Carney or Emmanuel Macron, progressive leaders with their own grand projets on “strategic autonomy” and the future of “middle powers”.

More than any particular policy, though, Burnham should probably take a more general lesson from Degsy and his Trotskyist forebears: if you’re backed into a corner, then fight. Thatcher may have beaten Degsy in the end, but the struggle was just and necessary. As Leon said, revolutions have a way of calcifying, recommending as an antidote a “permanent revolution” more than the settled “socialism in one country” backed by Stalin.

And there are plenty of candidates that a radicalised Burnham could choose to take on: the OBR and Treasury, which together treat investment as a liability rather than an asset; the Bank of England, which raises the cost of government borrowing by engaging in successive rounds of quantitative tightening; the ECHR, which would launch legal challenges against any moves to bring utilities back into public ownership without eye-watering sums being paid to foreign hedge-fund shareholders. “I think he’s doing well,” as one prominent backbencher puts it, but he “needs to grow in confidence… and generally speak and act with more clout and urgency.” 

So rather than backing down against the legalistic instincts of the civil service, the orthodoxies of the Treasury, or the apoplexy of the business pages, perhaps Burnham should return to his roots, embody the tribune-of-the-people persona that served him well in the North West, and declare war against Britain’s established interests. An icepick to the head killed Trotsky’s revolution. Thatcher’s revolution killed Degsy’s in Liverpool. A ballot-box verdict, delivered with rather less drama, is what finishes leaders whose revolutions never even start.

But Nikos Mohammadi writes:

Zohran Mamdani raised eyebrows at a gathering of global mayors this week with remarks that sharply broke with recent trends in progressive urban governance. The Left, Gotham’s socialist mayor warned, shouldn’t concede watchwords such as “quality of life” and “efficiency” to the Right: “If you are staring at an example of social disorder or social inefficiency, and the Left refuses to explain either why it has happened or how they will fix it, then the Right gets to point at someone in the immediate area and say, ‘That’s who did it.’” 

Tackling disorder and making streets welcoming for families should be a no-brainer — the very foundation of good government at the local level. Yet over the past decade, many blue jurisdictions abandoned these basics in the name of racial justice and “equity.” This had the predictable result of associating such places, in the public mind, with open drug use, needle-strewn sidewalks, tent cities, and rampant antisocial behavior. 

Conservatives made political hay of these failures, and who could blame them? Now, however, Mamdani — one of the most popular Democratic politicians in America — is reclaiming social order for the Left and implicitly questioning the ultra-libertarian social ethos that earlier captured the movement. If he succeeds, it could mark a sea change in progressive thinking. But where is Mamdani getting these ideas?

The answer is, in part, a person: Bhaskar Sunkara. The founder of Jacobin magazine, the president of The Nation, and a contributor to these pages, Sunkara counts Mamdani as a friend and ally. Sunkara has also been quietly but steadily injecting a healthy dose of social realism — some might even say conservatism — into a progressive movement that has been besotted with ideas like defunding the police, legalizing all drugs, and abolishing the family.

“It’s about making sure that these citizens, regularly using hard drugs, living in tents, who are even gambling on their phones, are able to reach their potential and contribute to society,” Sunkara tells me recently, as we sit down for an interview at Jacobin’s downtown-Brooklyn offices.

Sunkara, who rails against vices from porn to sports betting to even alcohol, strenuously avoids coming across as a Right-wing culture warrior. One senses in his tone that he doesn’t want his more culturally conservative positions to come across too strongly or, as he puts it, in “authoritarian” fashion: “As a society, [we] should have a normative vision of a good life, but also leave room for minority preferences.” 

But even that is an astonishing statement for a figure who used to be the vice chairman of the Democratic Socialists of America and who remains arguably the single biggest intellectual force behind it. As the DSA makes dramatic gains among young voters nationwide, it’s notable that one of its most important theorists believes that we “should have a normative vision of a good life.” 

On the core economic issues, he’s in broad alignment with many of his DSA comrades: Medicare for All and, on a grander scale, a “constitutional socialism” that would work within America’s existing framework to infuse socialism into the republic and its market economy. Crucially, Sunkara’s vision of socialism wouldn’t get rid of the market, but rely on market mechanisms to price and allocate goods efficiently. (He lays out this vision in his new book, The Blueprint: How Socialism Can Work in the Real World, co-authored with fellow Leftist intellectuals Ben Burgis and Mike Beggs.) 

When it comes to culture, though, Sunkara in some ways easily meets the definition of “conservative” as it’s understood by most in 21st-century America. This, however, shouldn’t be mistaken for his being a “man of the Right.” There is a long tradition of Leftists — George Orwell, Dorothy Day, and Christopher Lasch among them — who opposed the excesses of capitalism not only when it came to market activity, but also in the social and private realms. Moreover, “actually existing socialism” from China to Cuba has often been socially conservative in many respects — and in the “authoritarian” fashion from which, to be clear, Sunkara shrinks. 

But ask your average DSAer today on an American college campus about how, or even whether, to address crises like porn addiction or cannabis-use disorder, and you will be mistaken for a Republican and simply brushed aside. I would know. I attend the uber-activistic Columbia University, and this has happened to me too many times to count. Sunkara acknowledges this, as well, but he doesn’t place the blame on socialism or Leftism. Instead, per Sunkara, this way of thinking is “more common just among young people in general,” whereas you’ll find less of it among the Bernie bros and old-school socialists. 

In acknowledging this reality, Sunkara puts it charitably: “I think the common response on the Left is, like, ‘Let’s just focus on Medicare for All’” and put the cultural debates to the side. There is also, he suggests, a class dimension to Left tolerance for social vice and disorder. “I think you often find this thing — upper-middle-class people will have lifestyles for their own children and themselves that are quite conventional, low tech, etc., but kind of not want it for other kids.”

He doesn’t see why socialism should necessarily equate to American-style socially liberal policy prescriptions. Though he warns of the dangers of going too far in the other direction. He tells me he would have “probably” supported gay marriage back when that debate was happening, as opposed to civil unions, but he explains that “even in socialist countries, on the gay and lesbian question, it was considered kind of a bourgeois decadence in places like Cuba, until Cuba opened up, I guess, really, in the ’90s on this issue.” 

The degree to which such speech is wholly verboten on the Left — including among the somewhat-less-woke new crop of DSA politicians — can’t be overstated. And yet Sunkara doesn’t blink in saying so, speaking to me in a calm and elevated cadence, matter-of-factly. He may well be one of the minds behind Zohran Mamdani, but one could simply not imagine the same sentence issuing from the mouth of the New York mayor. 

I ask Sunkara about Taylor Lorenz, the Leftist tech blogger, who mocks “‘Leftists’ arguing that porn addiction and social media addiction is real.” Sunkara would be one such Leftist. Indeed, one of a very few. “You get the dopamine hits. It just seems fairly obvious,” Sunkara replies. “I’m one of the few people [who] doesn’t have a beef with Taylor in part because I just have muted her.” 

“Prohibition [of alcohol] was, in fact, a success,” he adds later, unprompted by me. “Prohibition actually led to a decrease in crime, a decrease in domestic violence, a decrease in certain fights and other sorts of public disturbances. Yes, there was an increase in organized crime. That increase, I think, pales in comparison to other advantages.” Though “it’s too late now” to have Prohibition policies reinstated, he laments, Sunkara has previously spoken in support of Utah liquor laws, which limit the sale of high alcohol-by-volume drinks to state stores, impose drink limits at bars, deploy state-mandated devices for measuring the volume of alcohol in a single drink, and proscribe happy hour. What, then, does Sunkara have in mind when he urges resistance against the “authoritarian” impulse in fortifying restraints against vice? 

He wouldn’t jail people for marijuana use but would get rid of omnipresent dispensaries (there’s one right outside the Jacobin office). While “porn is very difficult to regulate,” he concedes, he maintains that age-verification is a good “barrier to entry,” particularly for those most vulnerable to its dark and addictive side: “You’re just creating a little bit more friction for like a 13-year-old or a 12-year-old. But by the time someone’s 16 or 17, they can navigate around it and access porn if they want, which I don’t think is a huge problem.” Sunkara believes it’s possible for a man who regularly consumes porn to have positive relationships with women, but that it’s just “common sense” that younger exposure will lead to “pathological outcomes.” We “really need to hold the line” on things like sports betting and, in general, “see how we could regulate and roll back elsewhere.” 

Put another way: Sunkara may not be rushing to absolutely prevent everyone from consuming booze, ingesting marijuana, watching porn, and gambling. Yet he sees all of these things as inherently bad — stuff we would be much better off without — and instead seeks maximum moderation within our current societal constraints. That, needless to say, is a far cry from the “porn-good” and “marijuana-good” libertarian orthodoxy on much of the Left. 

Unlike many DSA comrades, Sunkara is also unapologetically patriotic. “America was the most racist country in the history of the world, and I think the Left actually does a great discredit to its own history when it pretends like it still is,” he said, to much subsequent internet virality, on what would turn out to be one of Ross Douthat’s last podcast episodes for The New York Times. Sunkara elaborates this point in our interview: “We live in communities, and we have to draw where the level of fellowship [is]. I’m a New Yorker. I’m an American. I also am broadly a man of the Northeast, so I feel fellowship with Ontario, a greater fellowship than I do with Alberta.” This, he cautions me, does not take away from his universalism, but is the reality of how our political organization works. 

It’s an outlook in stark opposition to the DSA’s Darializa Avila Chevalier, the pro-Palestine hard-liner who delivered a June upset to the five-term, establishment incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th District. Chevalier’s X history includes tweets such as: “I forgot to get napkins so I just wiped my hand on the American flag behind me.” On the case of Chevalier, Sunkara says, “I think Darializa came out of a campus radical background,” and that we should wait and “see what she does in office,” because “you could find equal examples of people coming out of the religious Right and having certain rhetoric before they’re in public office.” 

His comfort with patriotism also allows him to reach audiences that would otherwise never hear a socialist message. “I would speak to anyone as long as they also have an audience that’s worth my time,” he says. “So Fox News, you know, three out of four times that Fox News reaches out to me, I’ll say yes.” The only exceptions are when outlets are “openly fascist, openly nativist in the sense that they don’t respect my right to be a part of the American polity, even though I was born here.” 

Would he go on Tucker Carlson? “I could never beat Tucker Carlson in a debate,” he says, “and I don’t necessarily want to agree with him because I do think there [are] undertones to his work that are not only nativist, but I also think that his criticism of Israel is something we should be very wary of.” He adds: “I don’t think a Leftist should necessarily go on Tucker because also then you’re blurring the line between your critique of Israel as a Leftist and his critique of Israel, or your critique of Trump and his critique of Trump.” 

Some of Sunkara’s social prescriptions may seem excessive, and not only to socialists. But he’s trending in the right direction at a time when America is racked by deleterious forms of antisociality that line corporate pockets, whether Big Weed’s or Big Porn’s. To be sure, it’s hard to imagine the DSA embracing Sunkara’s practical, socially moderate, pro-American model of democratic socialism. Then again, a year ago, it would have been hard to imagine Zohran Mamdani, a onetime champion of defunding the NYPD, urging the Left to stop coddling disorder.

While Damian Thompson writes:

This week Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s Left-wing Mayor, astonished his conservative critics by doing something they wish they’d thought of. He announced that the city is paying for 70,000 tickets to the Metropolitan Opera, to be given away in a lottery. “Every New Yorker should have the opportunity to sit in these seats, hear these voices and experience this stage, no matter what’s in their bank account,” he said. 

Some Right-wingers complained about a waste of public money, but, really, it should be a source of embarrassment for conservatives that a self-proclaimed socialist thought up this scheme before they did. For decades, public bodies on both sides of the Atlantic have tried to make classical music “accessible” by moving the goalposts. The BBC parachutes Sam Smith into the Proms while turning Radio 3 presenters into gormless disc jockeys. Meanwhile, the musical establishment desperately tries to insert modestly talented female and ethnic-minority composers into the pantheon of the greats. 

It hasn’t worked — and let’s not pretend that Mamdani’s lottery will achieve spectacular results. We won’t suddenly start hearing the Triumphal Chorus from Aida drowning out hip-hop on the streets of the Bronx. Realistically, Mamdani and his colleagues may convert a few thousand New Yorkers who would otherwise never have set foot in the Met, or heard anything more than a burst of “Nessun dorma” on a playlist. Even so, they will have achieved more than armies of arts administrators and music teachers, not to mention the conservative guardians of culture who deplore musical wokery.

Opera is one of the least accessible art forms for modern audiences and always will be; we should stop worrying about that fact of life and concentrate instead on introducing it to those people who would fall in love with it if they had the chance. The same is true of the more challenging classical symphonic repertoire.

This isn’t to say that the most popular operas or symphony concerts with tried-and-trusted programmes fail to sell tickets. But the whole ecosystem relies on snob appeal, corporate hospitality and public funds whose beneficiaries occupy the same narrow social stratum as the civil servants who allocate them.

The composition and performance of large-scale “art music”, for want of a better term, has required bucketloads of subsidy since the 16th century. Gradually, the burden has shifted from princely patrons to taxpayers, and that trend can’t be reversed. What the New York experiment does is open the turnstiles to taxpayers, bypassing bien-pensant gatekeepers. Although its effect may be limited, anything is preferable to the useless fantasies of progressive social engineers.

While conservatives should be embarrassed, we also need to ask why Mamdani was able to outsmart them. The answer is that they belong to a Western political class that is increasingly deaf to classical music, for a combination of reasons. Recent generations have, for the most part, received a musical education that is perfunctory, politicised or non-existent. Also, compared to previous generations of conservatives, they tend to be myopic policy wonks or self-obsessed mediocrities for whom Mahler’s Second Symphony doesn’t represent Resurrection so much as 80 wasted minutes that could have been spent pressing the flesh at a drinks party.

Am I exaggerating? Consider this: the last Conservative British prime minister who took a serious interest in music left office in 1975. That is, five years before the birth of the current leader of the party. Now, you may think that Kemi Badenoch is preferable to Edward Heath in almost every respect, but her eight musical choices on Desert Island Discs did not include a single piece of classical music. Perhaps Mamdani should offer her a free ticket to the Met.