By-Poller

How long before the alleged Tory opinion poll lead is tested at a by-election? When it comes to votes for the House of Commons, Cameron's record is of turning super-safe seats into knife-edge marginals and respectable second places into distant thirds, on one notable occasion barely ahead of the BNP.

And in any case, who cares who wins the next General Election? In 1997, although there was no economic difference between Labour and the Tories, there were (at least in theory) considerable social and (without any doubt) vast constitutional differences. In 2010, there will be absolutely no difference at all. So who cares who wins?