It Is Time To Talk

Essentially the speech that he delivered at Durham on Monday to a house packed mostly with the young men who fought wars, Peter Hitchens writes:

We hate and despise Vladimir Putin’s invasion precisely because it has brought death, misery, flight and atrocities to innocent people. Why then, a year afterwards, do so many people seem to be so keen on making the Ukraine war deeper and longer?

If they hate war, surely they want it to stop? There are no nice wars. The more fighting there is, the more blood and screams and tragedy there will be. But I cannot think of a war in modern times in which so little effort has been made to bring about peace.

I think this is because so many people have come to see the war as a simple battle between good and evil. President Zelensky of Ukraine is like the white wizard Gandalf in The Lord Of The Rings. And President Putin of Russia is like the Dark Lord, Sauron. This leads them to think that nothing their side does can be mistaken and that the other side has no case at all.

Actually, I think Mr Zelensky has borne himself very well in this battle and Putin has borne himself very badly. But I can’t share this simple view of the conflict and I suggest you do not do so either.

I have a feeling the British public are growing nervous and worried about where it may lead them. And we would all benefit from a far more open debate. It is not healthy for any country to suppress disagreement. When the British establishment is totally united, it is almost always wrong.

The scenes of general adulation of Volodymyr Zelensky in Parliament last week reminded me of the last time the whole country was agreed – the Covid panic. And most thinking people are beginning to learn that our response to the virus was a series of dangerous mistakes, which wounded the economy, badly hurt the NHS, ravaged education in schools and universities, caused much needless personal misery and gravely undermined the national work ethic.

At that time, it was very hard to oppose what was going on. Those who did were called ‘deniers’ and accused of callous disregard for life.

Now, if you have doubts about the Ukraine war, you will find yourself falsely accused of being a defender of Mr Putin, or of being a ‘denier’ of war crimes.

Helping Ukraine defend itself against a lawless attack was a simple issue. And the Russian offensive, incompetently led and ill-planned, was mangled and largely halted very quickly.

But supplying highly offensive weapons, tanks, long-range missiles, perhaps jet bombers, is different. If your neighbour is attacked, you go to his aid. But if he then wishes to make his own attack, you might not be so keen to join.

And the help the West is now giving to Ukraine can, and probably will, be used for attack, possibly on Crimea, where there are many Russians who do not wish to be ruled by Ukraine. Russia under attack, especially defending what it regards as its rightful territory in Crimea, will be a very different enemy from Russia engaged in a lawless invasion.

I’ve explained in The Mail on Sunday why I believe this war is more complex than many think. The 30-year eastward expansion of Nato was a rash mistake, undermining Russian democrats and liberals and strengthening Putin and his nationalist backers.

I’ve shown that George Washington University in the US has archives showing that it was also in breach of promises clearly given to Moscow by major Western leaders.

I’ve pointed out that the war really began in 2014 when Ukraine’s democratically elected president was lawlessly overthrown by an armed mob, and the West – supposedly in favour of law and democracy – showed every sign of approval.

I’ve noted that even the American ultra-hawk Robert Kagan admits that Russia was provoked (though, like you and me, he does not think this excuses the invasion).

Yet we are ceaselessly told by uninformed media and politicians that it was ‘unprovoked’.

Far from ‘denying’ Russian atrocities, I underline the fact that (as is horribly normal in war) both sides have done wicked things.

So when the United Nations reported on the treatment of prisoners of war last November, it said of Ukrainians held by the Russians: ‘The vast majority interviewed told us that during their internment they were tortured and ill-treated.’

And it said of Russian PoWs held by Ukraine: ‘We have received credible allegations of summary executions… and several cases of torture and ill-treatment, reportedly committed by members of the Ukrainian armed forces.’

This simply is not Gandalf versus the Orcs. Ukraine is, in any case, a corrupt state, heavily dominated by billionaires, where speech and the media are not that free. It is not as different from Russia as its current fan club like to claim.

What’s more, if this war has proved one thing – to us and to Moscow – it is that Russia’s conventional armed forces remain poorly trained, badly equipped, reliant on low-grade conscripts and even on released criminals. The idea that a negotiated peace will tempt Russia into another war is fanciful.

I view all these events as a British patriot. And I have to ask what Britain and its people will gain from continuing and deepening this war. I understand that some American policy-makers see Russia as an ever-present threat, though I think their loathing for Russia absurd when Saudi Arabia is their ally and China a major trading partner.

I know that Russia-bashing is popular with American arms manufacturers and politicians hoping to please the many voters in the USA, especially Polish-Americans, whose ancestors fled Russian tyranny long ago and still hate Moscow. I understand it, but I do not agree with it or think it wise.

Russia exists. As long as it exists, it will defend its borders and its neighbourhood, exactly as the USA or Britain would in the same circumstances. Imagine what would happen if a newly independent Scotland played host to Russian bases and troops, or if Mexico signed a military alliance with China.

The traditional solution to such problems has been diplomacy, the forging of hard, lasting deals which leave both sides feeling reasonably secure. Of course, that means give as well as take. Sometimes we might give more than we want.

But is war – savage, merciless, atrocious war – with its handmaids of poverty and relentless state control, so wonderful that we cannot even contemplate a negotiated peace? The longer we leave it, the greater the risk of Armageddon and the harder the deal will be.

It is time to talk.