Consociational?

Even Gina Miller's new Remain United is ignoring Change UK, telling Remainers to vote SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales, and Lib Dem in every part of England. But if you must vote Remain, say I, then at least vote for both Unions.

There is blather in certain circles about voting variously Labour, Lib Dem or Change UK in the North West in order to keep out Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, "because we wouldn't want Fascists in the European Parliament." But they are already there. They are always there. That is not the only argument for Brexit. But it is as good an argument as any.

In demonstrating the negligible support for Blairism 14 years after Tony Blair last won a General Election, the pitiful vote for Change UK, and Gavin Esler had a complete meltdown on today's Politics Live, will demonstrate how many people believed one word of the "Labour anti-Semitism" carry on. Change UK will not take 100,000 votes, and might not manage even half that. 50,000 would be only one in six even of Jews in the United Kingdom.

The European Elections are going to show a Britain that is eerily reminiscent of Lebanon, where Maronites, Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims each comprise almost exactly a quarter of the population, with a further 15 "confessions" accommodated one way or another within the remaining quarter.

The three main tribes of British voters are going to be shown to be Brexit First, Labour Always, and Remain First. In that order for now, but within reach of each of other, and with none approaching a majority. The question will be which, if any, will be able to emulate the Maronites and "act as the majority when in fact it is not".

The Tory Always tribe, which still thinks of itself as dominant, is going to be shown to be a very poor fourth, and it will be lucky to take one in five votes cast. But half of Brexit First and a quarter of Remain First will still vote Conservative at the next General Election, while a third of Brexit First and at least a third of Remain First will vote Labour. The one after that, though, might be a very different matter, as will be all elections in between, and indeed between now and then.

All in all, another hung Parliament is coming, and we need our people to hold the balance of power in it. It has become a local commonplace that I am on 30-30-30 with Labour and the Conservatives here at North West Durham, so that any one of us could be the First Past the Post. I will stand for this seat, if I can raise the £10,000 necessary to mount a serious campaign. Please email davidaslindsay@hotmail.com. Very many thanks.