For Fear of Finding Something Worse

Arlene Foster? It is interesting to see the leadership of Unionism pass back to the Church of Ireland after all these years. This seems to be of a piece with the election of the utterly Ascendency figure of Danny Kinahan in place of William McCrea. And we have all known the temp who came for a fortnight, but who stayed forever.

I do not know where this idea comes from, that anyone has ever claimed that the Provisional IRA had disbanded. That it has murdered one of its old enforcers in retaliation for the murder of another one, is the stuff of organised crime the world over. Such often purports to have a political dimension. Sometimes, it really does have one.

But what if the Provos did "go away, you know"? The Real IRA already has an "Independent" Councillor in Derry (the name of the Council), where the INLA also recently staged a significant show of strength in order to bury an erstwhile dissident Republican candidate for the Assembly. That Councillor was in attendance.

If all the factions were to agree on a candidate, then the election of a dissident Republican among the MLAs for Foyle would be very likely indeed, were such an election ever again to be held.

Thus, it would begin. All over again.

But it is also possible that Unionists in Northern Ireland have begun to realise how little sympathy they could expect in Great Britain.

Consider the abuse that is heaped on Scotland and the North of England, while Wales is simply ignored, for the expense that we apparently incur by, at least in the North's case, being denied the infrastructure that the South East assumes as a matter of course.

Well, Northern Ireland is in a different league, with a colossal public sector alongside numerous other features a great distance removed from the views of The Times or of The Sun, or from those of most readers of the Daily Mail or of the Daily Telegraph.

As well as the spending, the Britishness that Unionism in Northern Ireland exists to defend includes a very high level of political participation by fundamentalist clergymen, acting as such. Does that sound remotely like Britain?

The name of Margaret Thatcher is abominated by Unionists from Northern Ireland in terms that I have never even heard from ex-miners. The latter just swear a lot, and compare her to Hitler. But the former very literally damn her to Hell, with the full rhetorical force of the King James Bible.

Everyone has always known that the IRA was still in existence. But the Good Friday Agreement had put a lid on most of its activities in Northern Ireland, as well as on all of them in Great Britain. People in Great Britain prefer it that way, and are now very well used to it that way.

So, if there were any hint of a return to IRA or similar activity on the Mainland due to the withdrawal of both Unionist parties from the Executive, then the message from the Mainland would be unmistakable: "We are not, under any circumstances, going through that again. You are on your own."

Of course, the Republic doesn't want Northern Ireland, either. It renounced all claim to the place by massive popular vote before the last century had ended. And attitudes there have hardened even further since then.

But then, the 26 County State has killed more IRA men than the British State ever has. The 26 County State, with which alone almost anyone now living in it feels the slightest identification.

To be Irish from Belfast is, to them, akin to being Irish from London, or Irish from Liverpool, or Irish from Glasgow, or Irish from New York, or Irish from Boston, or Irish from Sydney. That is to say, not really Irish at all, but bless.

The prospect of taking on either Peter Robinson or Martin McGuinness, never mind both, is hardly likely to change anyone's mind on that score. Britain may one day pull out of Northern Ireland. But the Republic will never, ever push into it.

The only way out might be that the DUP and Sylvia Hermon vote solidly against austerity, voted against the Welfare Reform Bill when the Labour frontbench abstained, voted against war in Syria in 2013, and have already indicated that they intend to do so again. Like the SDLP, in fact. Hermon is even anti-Trident.

Can you think of anyone else who is anti-Trident, who votes solidly against austerity, who voted against the Welfare Reform Bill when the Labour frontbench abstained, who voted against war in Syria in 2013, and who has already indicated that he intends to do so again? Yes, the SDLP. But anyone else, too?

I can tell you for a fact that the Unionists and the Corbyn camp were approaching each other through intermediaries until this all kicked off. It was going well. I shouldn't tell you that. But I can.