May, The Fourth?

Will Theresa May be the fourth Conservative Prime Minister to be brought down by "Europe"? If so, then who were the first three?

David Cameron, who had already said that he would not seek a third term, looked at Brexit, decided that it might be a bit hard, and simply brought forward that retirement.

John Major's fate was sealed the day that Britain crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, long before Maastricht.

An entire generation still believes that there was a recession up to and including the day of the 1997 Election.

Labour also had a convoluted policy on the EU, understood by almost nobody, in 1997. It never did Tony Blair any harm.

And anyone who believes that Margaret Thatcher was brought down because of "Europe" needs to read the extremely bitter chapter on the Poll Tax in her autobiography. 

She was in no doubt as to what the issue had been, and she correctly identified the campaign against the Poll Tax, the campaign that successfully forced her own party to remove her, as having been organised by the Militant Tendency, to which her defenestration was an outright surrender. 

"Europe" was just the excuse. It was not the reason why scores of Conservative MPs were on course to lose their seats. With the change of Prime Minister in 1990, policy on "Europe", rather than tone, did not change. 

Whereas the Poll Tax was abandoned completely, and the rates were brought back in all but name, despite the fact that there were undoubtedly serious problems with them. Those problems remain to this day. But at least the Poll Tax does not.

So it is again today. "Brexit" is just the excuse, and it is difficult to see how a change of Prime Minister would change it very much, if at all. The real problem is Universal Credit, the campaign against which is being organised by the supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.

Amber Rudd, who wants to be Prime Minister, is already in the process of restoring the status quo ante in all but name, despite the undoubtedly serious problems with it, because at least that was not Universal Credit, and at least it will not be Universal Credit.

Either the next Labour Government will introduce the Universal Basic Income, or the Conservative Opposition will promise to do so. The latter might very well be more likely than the former, since the next Labour Government will have to contend with the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Another hung Parliament is coming, however, and we need our people to hold the balance of power in it. It has become a local commonplace that I am on 30-30-30 with Labour and the Conservatives here at North West Durham, so that any one of us could be the First Past the Post. I will stand for this seat, if I can raise the £10,000 necessary to mount a serious campaign. Please email davidaslindsay@hotmail.com. Very many thanks.