Credits and Losses

George Galloway is making mischief again. He knows perfectly well that he is not going to be let back into the Labour Party, and it is unlikely that he would wish to be.

But even he would stand more chance of being a member of the next Parliament than would anyone who put up as an Independent figure of the Blairite Right, or for a newly organised formation of that tendency. And all such potential candidates know it.

UKIP, too, has run its course as a parliamentary force.

The tax credit cuts are the defining issue of this Parliament, and UKIP's only MP voted in favour of them, effectively making his a supporting party of the Government, like the UUP (but not, tellingly, the DUP).

Douglas Carswell's vote is already being used against UKIP at Oldham West and Royton, which is UKIP's last chance to make any electoral impact at Westminster, a chance that it is not going to take.

Most of UKIP's supporters are going to be delighted when its main bases are at Holyrood and Cardiff Bay. That is going to happen in a few months' time.

It is going to do especially well in Wales. Do the people who write below, and even above, the line on the more UKIP-friendly websites tend to have a high view of the Welsh? Or of the Scots, come to that?

It seems unlikely that UKIP will contest the 2020 General Election.

Whereas, having failed to win Mayor of London, George fully intends to slay another Dragon.