Normally

The Tories are still going to win, said Polly Toynbee on Newsnight, because in their direction is “where UKIP’s votes would normally go”.

But add together the Tory and UKIP votes in any Northern region, or in either Midland region, or in London, or in the South West, and you get a ludicrously high figure for the number of natural Tories living there.

Half of UKIP’s vote is Old Labour or (especially in the West Country) Old Liberal rather than Old Tory. That fact, however, must never be mentioned.