It is inconceivable that all, or even very many, Conservative MPs would contest the next General Election on a commitment to withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so it is inconceivable that Robert Jenrick would lead the Conservative Party into that Election.
We do not yet know the grounds on which they would get rid of Kemi Badenoch. But there would be something. In 2005, after the members' choice had been deposed in favour of Michael Howard without a vote's having been cast by anyone, then the Conservatives did not win. But they did make significant gains. And UKIP failed to win a single seat.
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