Kevin Meagher says what many of us still want to think:
The most obvious point about the Yougov poll for The Times showing Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour leadership race on 43 per cent, is that 57 per cent of members are not backing him.
A clear majority of Labour’s members do not support taking the party sharply to the left.
The other obvious point is that Corbyn’s wild card status in this contest, ostensibly to “broaden the debate” has spectacularly revealed just how little the parliamentary party and the professional class around Labour politics actually now understands the grassroots.
Corbyn was seen, to be brutally honest, as lefty ballast. A bit-part player to be politely tolerated while the serious professional politicians got on with it.
So how do party moderates now respond, having made what looks like a gigantic miscalculation?
No-one thought a Granita-style pact was necessary in order to give the centrist, social democratic perspective in the party a clear run in this contest, but this is precisely what is needed.
It’s probably too late and too messy for anyone to drop out at this stage, but the Burnham, Cooper and Kendall camps need to appreciate the risk of a Corbyn victory and maximise the chances of a centrist winning.
The stakes could not be higher.
This said, Jeremy Corbyn is not the devil incarnate. He is a deeply serious man who cares passionately about a range of often unpopular causes. There must always be room for people like him in a broad church Labour party.
But what he isn’t – not by a long shot – is a potential prime minister of this country. He is an Old Testament prophet, reassuring the party’s left that the old religion still holds strong.
But what the party needs is an ecumenist who can reach out across the many social and geographical divides and galvanise a bigger congregation.
Jeremy is not the man to do this. He would, quite simply, lead Labour to ruin.
So in order to prevent this possibility, the three other candidates need to make their second and even third preferences count.
Again, taking the poll at face value, Liz Kendall on 11 per cent of first preferences, is clearly nowhere in this contest.
If Cooper then comes third and some of her centre-left support then leaches to Corbyn, it may give him the extra eight per cent he needs to win.
This is even more likely – a racing certainty, in fact – if Burnham comes third. He clearly has lots of centre-left support that would head straight to Corbyn if he was out of contention.
Whatever people’s views of Burnham, it is essential he stays in the contest.
Kendall needs to bury the hatchet with him and use the next few weeks to accept the basic arithmetic of what is happening. Ditto, Yvette Cooper.
Of course this is just one poll a month before ballot papers go out and the party is unusually jumpy at the moment.
But if Labour is to survive as a viable party of government any prospect of a Corbyn victory must be taken seriously and guarded against, before it is too late.
The most obvious point about the Yougov poll for The Times showing Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour leadership race on 43 per cent, is that 57 per cent of members are not backing him.
A clear majority of Labour’s members do not support taking the party sharply to the left.
The other obvious point is that Corbyn’s wild card status in this contest, ostensibly to “broaden the debate” has spectacularly revealed just how little the parliamentary party and the professional class around Labour politics actually now understands the grassroots.
Corbyn was seen, to be brutally honest, as lefty ballast. A bit-part player to be politely tolerated while the serious professional politicians got on with it.
So how do party moderates now respond, having made what looks like a gigantic miscalculation?
No-one thought a Granita-style pact was necessary in order to give the centrist, social democratic perspective in the party a clear run in this contest, but this is precisely what is needed.
It’s probably too late and too messy for anyone to drop out at this stage, but the Burnham, Cooper and Kendall camps need to appreciate the risk of a Corbyn victory and maximise the chances of a centrist winning.
The stakes could not be higher.
This said, Jeremy Corbyn is not the devil incarnate. He is a deeply serious man who cares passionately about a range of often unpopular causes. There must always be room for people like him in a broad church Labour party.
But what he isn’t – not by a long shot – is a potential prime minister of this country. He is an Old Testament prophet, reassuring the party’s left that the old religion still holds strong.
But what the party needs is an ecumenist who can reach out across the many social and geographical divides and galvanise a bigger congregation.
Jeremy is not the man to do this. He would, quite simply, lead Labour to ruin.
So in order to prevent this possibility, the three other candidates need to make their second and even third preferences count.
Again, taking the poll at face value, Liz Kendall on 11 per cent of first preferences, is clearly nowhere in this contest.
If Cooper then comes third and some of her centre-left support then leaches to Corbyn, it may give him the extra eight per cent he needs to win.
This is even more likely – a racing certainty, in fact – if Burnham comes third. He clearly has lots of centre-left support that would head straight to Corbyn if he was out of contention.
Whatever people’s views of Burnham, it is essential he stays in the contest.
Kendall needs to bury the hatchet with him and use the next few weeks to accept the basic arithmetic of what is happening. Ditto, Yvette Cooper.
Of course this is just one poll a month before ballot papers go out and the party is unusually jumpy at the moment.
But if Labour is to survive as a viable party of government any prospect of a Corbyn victory must be taken seriously and guarded against, before it is too late.
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