Tuesday 16 September 2008

The End of Ukraine?

Quite possibly.

The Russian half can now either be incorporated directly into Russia, or else become the sort of nominally independent state that might as well be. And the other half can keep applying unsuccessfully to be let into NATO and the EU, which won't touch it for fear of annoying Russia.

Something similar, though happier, will happen soon enough when Transnistria becomes independent under Russian influence while the rest of Moldova re-joins Romania.

Few people in Ukraine will really mind, at least if in the west they can be convinced that the EU or NATO might ever so much as look at them.

And no one in Transnistria or Moldova would mind in the least.

2 comments:

  1. Transnistria is surrounded by Ukraine & Rumania, it is not even like Konigratz which can be reached by sea. I believe Russia has a legal right of transit, as we did to West Berlin way back when. During the Yugoslav biombing Russia also had a right of transit flying over Rumania but it was suggested that if a Rumanian pilot, off his own bat, choose to shhot down a Russian plane, he would be well rewarde & get an extremely short sentence.

    The idiots running NATO may well see Transnestria as a target.

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  2. Which Ukraine? And anyway, so long as there was Russian recognition and guaranteed support, there wouldn't need to be a land frontier.

    Nobody in Moldova or Romania would mind loosing this accretion in the cause of reunion, and it in turn would be happy to be set free.

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