Recessions and Elections

Recessions make people cautious, and so likely to vote for the status quo rather than for change. If David Davis, say, were Tory Leader, with someone equally dependable-looking as Shadow Chancellor, then things might be different. But Cameron and Osborne scattering stardust about the place? Against the man who by Spring 2010 will be dear old "oh well, at least we know what we're getting" Gordon Brown? Forget it. Remember, the economy had picked up by 1997. If it hadn't, then Major would have beaten, not Smith or Brown, but certainly Blair.