Wednesday, 24 September 2008

Recessions and Elections

Recessions make people cautious, and so likely to vote for the status quo rather than for change. If David Davis, say, were Tory Leader, with someone equally dependable-looking as Shadow Chancellor, then things might be different. But Cameron and Osborne scattering stardust about the place? Against the man who by Spring 2010 will be dear old "oh well, at least we know what we're getting" Gordon Brown? Forget it. Remember, the economy had picked up by 1997. If it hadn't, then Major would have beaten, not Smith or Brown, but certainly Blair.

1 comment:

neil craig said...

On the other hand Harold Wilson beat the Tories in 1964 on the basis they were heading for a collapse of the £ & Ted Heath in turn beat Wilson in 1970 because the £ had dropped. In the US Clinton beat Bush because of "the economy stupid" & though I find it incredible, the economy seems to be a positive issue for Obama.