I think that Chris Huhne had a point on Question Time last night: hatred of the Lib Dems among Labour and the Tories in their respective heartland areas (which would account for the great majority of their respective MPs in a hung Parliament) is so visceral that they are more likely to do a deal with each other.
Such arrangements are of course routine in local government; and there is currently just such a coalition at national level in Germany.
Let's face it, who would be able to tell the difference politically between the present situtaion and either a New Labour-New Tory coalition, or indeed a New Tory majority government?
So, although Huhne might not have meant it like this, even in the event of a hung Parliament, the Lib Dems still wouldn't matter.
And has anyone else noticed the serious possibility that they might become an England-only party next time? The SNP could have their every Scottish Westminster seat (and their every Holyrood seat except Shetland) if it made any effort at all, and Plaid Cymru could take their seats in Mid-Wales. Only Cameron keeps them in business in the West Country, where well-known local right-wing Independents are in the offing, including in every seat in Cornwall, all currently Lib Dem held, and in that case pretty much certain to remain so.
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I think you're right about this. A Lab-Con coalition is by far the most likely outcome of a hung Parliament, and could merrily last for years on end. Not that I'd want it, but that's beside the point.
ReplyDeleteHuhne outclassed Clegg last night. The coronation of the pro-Trident Clegg, protege of the basically pro-war Campbell, might not go according to plan after all.
A Lab/Con pact might hold power for one term, but if so the LDs would be the official opposition. Assuming they screwed up even worse than they do as individual parties which seems likely the LDs would almost certainly be the largest party after the following election. Indeed just as they get dispropotionately squeezed at under 30% of the vote they get an overall majority on under 40% - http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
ReplyDeleteI think this would give the other 2 pause.
I'm not sure that the Lib Dems could survive being denied power in the event of a hung Parliament.
ReplyDelete