Tuesday, 23 January 2024

Taxing Times

YouGov has run the numbers, and here they are.


That is a very comfortable majority in every group to give priority to public spending over tax cuts, including 62 per cent of people overall, 52 per cent of those who have already decided to vote Conservative, 58 per cent of those who voted Leave, 67 per cent of those aged 50 to 64, 64 per cent of those aged 65 and over, 64 per cent of those in social groups ABC1 (eight points higher than in the C2DE bracket), 61 per cent of people in England (higher than in Wales), and 63 per cent of people in the South outside London (tied with London, higher than in Wales or the Midlands, and six points higher than in the North).

For cutting taxes even if it meant spending less on public services, the figures are 22 per cent overall, 36 per cent of confirmed Conservative voters, 29 per cent of Leave voters, 20 per cent of the late-middle-aged, 24 per cent of the elderly, 22 per cent of the middle classes and above, 23 per cent in England, and 22 per cent in the non-metropolitan South, which is lower than in London, Wales, the Midlands or the North.

On a programme of cutting taxes when the other side would not, then no political party has won an overall majority at a General Election since 1992, 32 years, eight Elections and eight Prime Ministers ago. 42 per cent of adults have incomes that do not reach the threshold for income tax. No, not "before benefits". Those are taxable income. Two in five adults have gross incomes, from all sources, of less of than one thousand pounds per month. Of those in that position, the great majority are in work, rising to the overwhelming majority of those below pensionable age. If that does not sound like the Britain that you know, then you need to get out more.

That is before we start about inheritance tax, which is paid only on the estates of people who died richer than 24 out of 25 people who died in Britain that year. Ask almost anyone whether they had ever been a beneficiary of an estate that had been subject to inheritance tax. If they have, then they are probably in politics or its schoolfriend media.

But when I tell you that there is going to be a hung Parliament, then you can take that to the bank. I spent the 2005 Parliament saying that it was psephologically impossible for the Heir to Blair's Conservative Party to win an overall majority. I predicted a hung Parliament on the day that the 2017 General Election was called, and I stuck to that, entirely alone, all the way up to the publication of the exit poll eight long weeks later. And on the day that Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, I predicted that a General Election between him and Keir Starmer would result in a hung Parliament.

To strengthen families and communities by securing economic equality and international peace through the democratic political control of the means to those ends, including national and parliamentary sovereignty, we need to hold the balance of power. Owing nothing to either main party, we must be open to the better offer. There does, however, need to be a better offer. Not a lesser evil, which in any case the Labour Party is not.

16 comments:

  1. That's all because it said "public services." Substitute the term "welfare" (or "illegal migrant hotels") for the term "public services" and you get the opposite.

    "A new YouGov poll for Channel 4 News yesterday found strong public support for many of the government's planned cuts to benefits. 73% of respondents supported the idea of making the long term unemployed do compulsory work placements or risk losing benefits, 66% supported withdrawing jobseekers allowance from people who turn down job offers or interviews, 69% supported more stringent testing of people claiming disability living allowance and 68% supported capping housing benefit at £400 a week, "even if this means people are forced to move house if they live in an area where the rent is high". In all these cases the policies weren't just popular amongst Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters, they were also backed by a majority of Labour voters."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Substitute "chocolate biscuits" and you might have got a different answer. In any case, what you cite does not mention tax cuts. It would be an insult to religious belief to compare politicians', and adjacent hacks' and thinktankers', conviction of the popularity of those to a religious belief. It is blind faith such as you would not encounter among the Houthis.

      Delete
  2. Polls also show strong support for tax cuts (obviously, since most people in the country are working and would therefore benefit from, say, income tax or national insurance cuts). But while most people support spending on 'public services', they most certainly don't support our current level of spending on welfare in general, and especially not on welfare for immigrants in particular. The poll you cite never asked them that, so it got the answer it wanted (and the massive fall in government borrowing and interest on government debt due to falling inflation has now freed up billions for tax cuts before even making any spending cuts).

    ""Respondents were surveyed on tax-cutting measures – including slashing 2p from the rate of National Insurance Contributions (NIC) – and 61 per cent of voters said they backed the idea."

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tories-poll-bump-60-per-112744078.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABJsGqPX0ho0pFQwcnsneFb47Le4eco6GSlcFSLeA_p4M1ZgI13h5xaPw1zrJN-GCenuA2YINTBC41qbGHTVvwUUU58zFqyRyHDL8b5MT9YTNOAmO2FjkbZoVsKE2xOlpNu9ebbhH_lyJM3_FApGNBQkS8pUI55afW7Iz1nwr-XA

    ReplyDelete
  3. "conviction of the popularity of those to a religious belief. "

    No, it's based on consistent polling evidence. Since most people work, of course most people support tax cuts that allow them to keep more of the fruits of their labour.

    "YouGov surveyed respondents on tax-cutting measures – including slashing 2p from the rate of National Insurance Contributions (NIC) – and 61 per cent of voters said they backed the idea."

    https://www.cityam.com/tories-get-poll-bump-as-60-per-cent-back-national-insurance-cut/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And that one.

      More fanatical than any religion that I have ever come across.

      Delete
  4. "We've done that one."

    Only just-it took effect in January (see below) and was overwhelmingly popular, but the public want much bigger cuts. You always know there's an election coming, when the Chancellor gets the axe out.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/record-national-insurance-cut-arrives-in-less-than-six-weeks

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tax cuts transfer money from the unproductive public sector to the productive private sector of the economy, drive growth, enable people to keep more of the fruits of their own labour and are overwhelmingly popular.

    It's a win-win.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except that they are not overwhelming popular. Only people in the political-media bubble like them much at all.

      Delete
  6. The Times publishing this in an election year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It clearly thinks that there is no risk of either party's proposing any real change. There is going to be a lot of this.

      Delete
  7. Except that they are not overwhelming popular.

    They are-as the poll I published above shows among many others. Why wouldn’t tax cuts be popular?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are simply not. What you posted did not mention tax cuts. The idea that people love those is a faith position untroubled by the relationship between faith and reason, and a mark of political identity in the context of identity politics.

      Delete
  8. What you posted did not mention tax cuts.

    I posted the polls showing overwhelming public support for tax cuts after that one. Here it is again, (in case you forgot your glasses). As I say, since most people work (and at least try to save), why wouldn’t tax cuts be popular?

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pm-sunaks-tax-cuts-yield-polling-boost-timesyougov-2023-11-24/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It doesn't say that, and of course that Budget was more complicated than you make out, as that report states. Above the line are the answers to the straight question, "Tax cuts or spending cuts?" They are not new.

      Nor as they surprising. People do not like spending cuts. They do not like inflation, which cutting direct taxation, in particular, sets loose like anthrax. And 42 per cent of adults have incomes that do not reach the threshold for income tax. Of those in that position, the great majority are in work, rising to the overwhelming majority of those below pensionable age.

      All in all, it is only to be expected that on a programme of cutting taxes when the other side would not, then no political party has won an overall majority at a General Election since 1992, 32 years, eight Elections and eight Prime Ministers ago.

      Delete