A Very Difficult Point

If Denmark does not want its North Sea oil, then can we have it instead? Both outside the EU, Britain and Norway could split it between us. Ah, but there's the rub. Most people are dimly, if at all, aware that we have left the EU, and we are about to do a deal that will be worse than re-joining. That can only be intentional.

There would be nothing like a referendum, or even a General Election with the main parties on opposite sides of this issue. Yet we are looking at reaccession to the EU, on any terms that the EU cared to set, well within the next 10 years, since even that would be better than The Deal. After all, it will be argued, if we must be subject to the State Aid rules, then we may as well have some say over them. And if we must be subject to the Common Fisheries Policy, then we may as well have some say over it. Never mind that that had done us no good in the past.

There is absolutely no possibility that the House of Commons would ever approve a No Deal Brexit. Across all parties apart from the DUP, if that, it would sooner bring down the Government. Yet out of sheer self-preservation, both the Labour MPs for Wales and for those parts of England which still returned any outside London, and the Conservative MPs for the English and Welsh seats that determined the last General Election, ought to vote against any Brexit that kept their constituencies subject to the State Aid rules. They will not do so, however, because they only have to preserve themselves against each other. No, of course the latest Farage vehicle is not going to win their seats. At most, it is going to hand a few of them to whoever was in second place.

And out of sheer self-preservation, both the Conservative and the Liberal Democrat MPs for most of the Scottish seats that returned such ought to vote against any Brexit that sold out the fisheries. This is where it gets trickier, since all six Conservative seats in Scotland are marginal with the SNP, three of them eye-wateringly so, while the SNP is also within touching distance of taking all four Liberal Democrat seats in Scotland, with even the cultural obstacle in Orkney and Shetland capable of being overcome by mass abstention, or by the high profile Independent or other candidacy of a fishermen's friend. The SNP's position of supporting the EU while opposing the CFP is ridiculous, but it will give it a double reason to vote against The Deal.

The Deal is going to pass, ostensibly because "any deal is better than No Deal", but really because reaccession could be sold as an improvement a few years down the line. Either way, there will be no hope of freedom from the State Aid rules, and no hope of saving our fisheries. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will abstain, if they do not actually vote in favour. And that will be that. Not really out. Officially back in well within a decade. I am the Independent parliamentary candidate for North West Durham. What are you doing?