As Solid As Ever

I always knew that, if they kept him on long enough, then Dan Hodges would say something sensible eventually:

So now we know. The narrative that Ukip is as much of a threat to Labour as it is to the Conservative Party is rubbish. Though to be fair, some of us always suspected as much.

Lest we forget, last night’s Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election was supposed to be the moment that Ukip made the big breakthrough into Labour’s heartland.

As my colleague Toby Young wrote recently, many commentators were claiming that an outright Ukip win "is not as far-fetched as you might think, as Mike Smithson points out in this post for PoliticalBetting.com. 

Since 2011, Ukip have come second in five by-elections – Eastleigh, South Shields, Barnsley Central, Rotherham and Middlesbrough – and the party did well in local elections in Wythenshawe and Sale East in 2012.

Last night, Lord Ashcroft tweeted that betting on the outcome of the by-election had been temporarily suspended, suggesting that the bookies were busy recalculating the odds of a Ukip victory after several large bets had been placed on precisely that outcome".

Well they didn’t win. Nor did they get the 20 per cent that Nigel Farage had set as his personal benchmark for triumph.

In Wythenshawe and Sale it was the same old story: Ukip took votes from the Tories and a small rump of BNP nomads. Ed Miliband’s northern base remained as solid as ever.

Remember, this was a midterm by-election, and one with a shockingly low turnout. If ever a minor party was going to cause an upset it was here.

But instead of giving Ed Miliband nightmares, Ukip’s paper campaign allowed him to retire before the counting of the ballots even began.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Ukip is not even going to scratch the mould of British politics, never mind break it.

They do not have anything resembling a national organisation. They have no coherent national message beyond “keep out the immigrants”.

And as last night showed, they have zero prospect of returning a single member of parliament at a general election.

It’s time to stop referring to Ukip as if they are a distinct national party. They aren’t. They’re just as group of angry former Conservatives.

They may take enough votes from their old party to hand Ed Miliband victory in 2015 – though I seriously doubt it [in that Labour would have won anyway].

But the idea they will interpose themselves equally between both Labour and the Tories whilst surfing a tsunami of anti-political anger is a fantasy.

Last night was another good night tactically for Ed Miliband.

A number of members of his inner circle have themselves been warning him to take the Ukip threat seriously. Now he knows that he can safely ignore it.

It shows that his 35 per cent strategy is paying off in Labour’s northern bastions. And it again underlines how toxic the Tory brand is anywhere north of Nottingham.

But strategically there was one silver lining for David Cameron.

After some initial confusion about how to tackle the Ukip threat, Tory strategists have now settled on a single clear message: "Vote Farage, get Miliband".

Had Ukip eaten into Labour’s support last night that message would have been undermined. As it is the Conservative Party can argue with justification that a vote for Ukip is simply a vote for Labour.

Nigel Farage claimed Ed Miliband would be running scared of Ukip after last night. Well he isn’t.

And nor, if he is sensible, will David Cameron.