Doncaster Delusions

"If there were no Conservative Party, then [wait for it] YOOO-KIP would beat Ed Miliband!"

Even if it were possible, and it is not, to know that that were true, then so what? You are talking about people who will only ever vote for the Conservative Party candidate, in many cases for anything, and in all cases for the House of Commons.

It is a matter of supreme indifference to them that that might hand victory to Labour. Any non-Conservative candidate is as unacceptable to them as any other non-Conservative candidate. They are used to Labour's winning. They may not like it. But they expect it, so they accept it. It is nothing to them.

The Conservatives may have dropped from first to third place at the European Elections both in the North West and in Yorkshire and the Humber, as also in the West Midlands and in Wales. But they still managed to return MEPs from all four.

They still took 17.7 per cent of the vote, cast by more than one hundred thousand people, in the North East. They easily out-polled UKIP in Scotland. They out-polled Labour in the East Midlands; only just, but they did. Their Ulster Unionist allies retained a European seat in Northern Ireland.

Anyone who grew up in any of those places, or who has spent any length of time in any of them, will know exactly who these people are. The True Blueness can sometimes dim a little towards considering UKIP for European Elections, or Independents for the council. But not always.

And the bedrock of those who would never consider voting any way but Tory for the House of Commons is really quite large. The bedrock of those who would never consider voting any way but Tory for anything is far from negligible.

In any case, the idea of Labour's losing Doncaster North is so preposterous as to be unworthy of serious discussion. The same is true of all the Labour seats coloured in various shades of purple on those maps which are doing the rounds.

The latest one features not only Bishop Auckland, which is always there and always ludicrous, but North-West Durham as well. Enough said. "Naive" does not begin to describe that.

The K in UKIP stands for Kent. But that party will be lucky to win four seats even there. Farage himself is on course for defeat at Thanet South, where he is five points behind the Conservative candidate.

By 2020, UKIP will no longer exist. But there will still be at least 200 Conservative and at least 200 Labour MPs, with the Leader of one or the other as Prime Minister.

And Labour will absolutely, certainly still hold Doncaster North. I mean, don't be silly.