The Rising of The North

Not to say, the Revolt of the Northern Earls.

When the local Mr Bigs of Southern white populism became Republicans, or when the grandees of the Moderate school in the Northeast and elsewhere became Democrats, then they and their entourages very often attached themselves to local parties that existed and functioned barely, if at all. Takeover was easy, where it was necessary or even possible.

Britain also has municipal grandees and local Mr Bigs who have sat for the same wards for decades, and whose forebears have very often done likewise, running every charity, every committee and every community event, sometimes for miles around.

In the North of England, such figures exist are generally Labour. But if not, and especially in more or very rural areas, they are most often Independents, who are usually known to be basically Tories. Less commonly, they are open and public Conservatives. Occasionally, they are still Lib Dems in the old Liberal tradition. But even the first of those labels is now less and less useful. The other two have become thoroughly toxic.

Take, as a fairly typical example, the ward of Weardale, the embodiment of a rural Northern Independent stronghold. Although the (very young) Labour candidate was not elected there this year, the Labour vote did go up by 800 per cent

That happened without much, if any, change in the composition of the electorate beyond simple deaths on one side and simple attainments of voting age on the other. Those were very often within the same families, families that have in many cases inhabited Weardale since time immemorial. That is now all that it takes. Come back after another four years.

Faced with the prospect of losing their seats and everything that went with them, which we must not deny entails a very great deal of public service, or faced with the reality of already having done so, how will those who have hitherto employed those Independent, Conservative, and ancestrally Liberal designations react?

Many of them have long histories of co-operation with the local Labour Establishment against the nutters on both sides. The much-missed and highly successful Derwentside District Council was run on exactly those lines, by traditional Labour in alliance with a body of Independents, although there was always a formal Labour majority.

Such arrangements, not to say formal coalitions, are routine between Labour and either Independents or the Conservatives across the North. It says a very great deal that such situations seldom, if ever, involve the Lib Dems.

As stalwart participants in Northern economic, social, cultural and political life, no small number of these conversions to the Labour allegiance would be, will be, and doubtless already are sincere.

It is not a big jump from economically populist, socially conservative, locally communitarian, regionally patriotic Northern Toryism to economically populist, locally communitarian, regionally patriotic Northern Labourism, with its very high tolerance, and indeed its very high number, of social conservatives. It is far further from either to David Cameron than it is from each to the other.

Yet in many of the specific wards that have hitherto elected those figures, they and their entourages would be, will be, and doubtless already are attaching themselves to Labour Party organisations that barely exist.

All that Labour now really needs to do is to put a candidate on the ballot paper, and if possible to get a leaflet out. Unlike the other two, Labour can manage that absolutely anywhere.

But takeover of many a local branch by someone who already had a machine in that ward, even if that machine might have broken down a little or be on the verge of doing so, would be, will be, and doubtless already is very easy indeed.

When the local Mr Bigs of Southern white populism became Republicans, then it changed both parties utterly, and made each what it is today. The impact of the accession the grandees of the Moderate school in the Northeast and elsewhere to the Democratic Party was perhaps less drastic, but it was nevertheless pronounced, and its effects can still be felt, in and for both parties.

The Conservative vote has simply collapsed in the North of England. that has changed the position of the North within the Labour Party, so that it now provides three quarters of Labour MPs in Opposition, and so that it will provide half or more of Labour MPs even in Government, since that is where so many of the Labour gains are going to have been.

Intimately related to those trends, the incorporation into the Labour machine of those Northern municipal grandees and local Mr Bigs who, especially in rural areas, were not already in it, would transform, will transform, and is doubtless already beginning to transform the Conservative Party significantly.

But to transform the Labour Party even more significantly. An economically populist, locally communitarian, regionally patriotic, largely rural position, including a very high tolerance and indeed a very high number of social conservatives, has always existed within the Labour Party.

Such is now going to become, if it is not already becoming, that party's single largest bloc, and perhaps even its norm.

At the very time when, and for the same reasons as, Labour will become the natural party of government, in office between two thirds and three quarters of the time, if not always.