Labour Gain.
Why ever not? Of course, it would depend on the candidate.
As for UKIP, Nigel Farage would look as if he were running scared if he did not stand.
Yet he would never again be taken seriously if he stood but did not win, which he would not.
Yet he would never again be taken seriously if he stood but did not win, which he would not.
This could be the end of three parties.
I checked out the by-election & I learned that Stephen Milligan used to be the MP for Eastleigh. Do you remember him? He was found dead wearing stockings & with a slice of an orange in his mouth!
ReplyDeleteApparently the orange was laced with poppers!
Oh, yes. Very odd business. Nearly 20 years ago now.
ReplyDeletePeter Hitchens? Replace one 70s Trot with another.
ReplyDeletePeter was in the heterodox IS, which became the SWP. Huhne was in the orthodox IMG.
ReplyDeleteI have just been over to his blog, and it is the latest one advertising, even if only for seconds, my more recent book. Thank you, Google.
Farage was the Ukip candidate in the Eastleigh byelection of 1994. He got 1.7% of the vote.
ReplyDeleteWill the Tories run Hannan?
ReplyDeleteWhat would be rather odd (if bitterly funny) would be if the voters of Eastleigh rejected two parties offering Britain an exit from Europe, in favour of the only party that still refuses a referendum on Europe.
ReplyDeleteIf the voters are that silly, they deserve Red Ed.
Michael Heseltine will be the only one smiling.
Let's see the UKIP result, shall we?
ReplyDeleteIndeed.
ReplyDeleteIf Ed's people win, the BBC/Guardian etc will have been vindicated, as it will put paid to any notion that the British public are eurosceptical.
They can argue, with confidence, that the British people wholeheartedly reject EU withdrawal.
This is a good indicator of which way the people would vote in any future referendum.
This or any other by-election will have absolutely nothing to do with that issue. That is just a fact. No wonder that Farage looks like not going for it after all. No one, absolutely no one, sits in the pub or stands at the bus stop and talks about the EU.
ReplyDelete"no one sits in the pub and discusses the EU"
ReplyDeleteThat is true.
Because, obviously, no party in Westminster has ever admitted to them how many of their problems are caused by the EU.
That's one of the worst things about having no party to argue for withdrawal-they all conspire to cover up just how many of our woes can be attributed to membership.
People DO "sit in the pub" and talk about immigration, "yuman rights", our pathetic justice system, and unemployment.
Nobody has ever explained to them how these things are all caused by the EU.
But there is one sense in which the Eastleigh result IS connected to this issue.
If the people decisively reject parties that offer withdrawal, in favour of one that currently refuses even to offer them the choice, then they are sending out a clear signal that the British people are happy to continue being ruled by Europe.
They just don't care.
I think its very unlikely that Labour could win this one. We haven't been competitive for a long time and have never held this seat.
ReplyDeleteIt could be that we can gain some our tactical vote from the LibDems, and if UKIP take votes off the Tories it could make the seat much closer. But from 10% to a winning position - not very likely
Normally, I'd agree with you. Who wouldn't? But these are not normal times.
ReplyDeleteI nominate the only subagent ever to have got Labour an overall majority of the total vote in Lanchester.
ReplyDeleteOn a four-way split.
ReplyDeleteThey have never forgiven me, and they never will.