Tories only six points ahead, on a mere thirty-seven per cent, far too little to win.
Shadow Cabinet tomorrow, scheduled to last two hours. Could be double that, at least.
Kinnock went into the 1992 Election nine points ahead. Cameron is in a weaker position than that.
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Except that polling methodology has changed since then. Polls used to overestimate Labour's position - something that has been highlighted time and time again by Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report and Mike Smithson on Political Betting. Since 1997 (not sure about 1992) ICM is the only polling org not to change its methodology. It was also the most accurate in 1997 (predicting Labour would get 45%, while the others were predicting around 50%).
ReplyDeleteKeep telling yourself that, dear.
ReplyDeleteCameron isn't.
Where did I give an opinion on Cameron? For what it's worth I don't think that highly of him and it's notable that the Tory poll rating is dropping in tandem with his personal ratings.
ReplyDeleteI was simply making the point that polling methodology around 1992 was dodgy (as it overestimated Labour and continued to do so until after 1997) and you can't compare it will polling today.
Are you seriously suggesting that a website that specialises in political betting (and is run by a Lib Dem) or objective polling analysis would talk rubbish just to boost David Cameron?
Anonymous - don't bother. David takes all his polling information from that noted psephologist Peter Hitchens. Facts, and the like, have nothing on that.
ReplyDeleteCameron was 25 points ahead in the middle of 2008, and look at him now. Both my and Peter's points about him are proved, especially when you consider that Cameron has been more visible since Christmas and has become more unpopular accordingly.
ReplyDeleteThe pollsters are good at bullying the rest of us into thinking and voting the approved way, which is their real job. But even they are not that good.
Speaking of bullying, this week the Cameron camp thought that it had it made with some non-story taken from the unsourced ramblings of some embittered Blairite columnist. But a mere two days in, and only the wrongdoings of the people behind some Tory fake charity are still being reported at all.