Wales, soon to have a new Labour Leader for all the difference that that will make, is a happy and even hallowed land.
Seventy-four per cent of those who could have voted for devolution there declined to do so. Ex-Labour Independents and small parties have lately captured many council seats, captured and retained the erstwhile Commons seat of Aneurin Bevan and Michael Foot, and captured and retained the corresponding seat at Cardiff, all on programmes as far from the economic sectarian Leftism that New Labour used to profess as from the social and cultural sectarian Leftism that New Labour now professes. Where that Commons seat was concerned, the favourite New Labour device of the all-women shortlist took a hell of a kicking.
Bevan scorned separatism, telling the House of Commons on its first Welsh Day that it was wasting parliamentary time, since "Welsh coal it the same as English coal and Welsh sheep are the same as English sheep". The increasingly English-separatist base of Tory activists and core voters should take note. Not least because in the coming hung Parliament, their party will have 12 to 14 MPs from Wales, in addition to being dependent on the SNP on the floor of the House.
When are we in the North going to assert our interests on the basis of programmes as far from the economic sectarian Leftism that New Labour used to profess as from the social and cultural sectarian Leftism that New Labour now professes? Well, for a start, when the favourite New Labour device of the all-women shortlist takes a hell of a kicking. Wherever could we start?
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Interesting.
ReplyDeleteSo, what break down of your forecast of the composition of the next H o C is going to give the Scot Nats the balance of power they crave? There will be other parties with 55 seats or so.
It seems far more likely that the Lib-Dems will opt for the roving affiliation which will swing one way or the other, while the Scot Nats will have no choice but to go with Chameleon, If Labour doesn't have a majority.
Oh, I'm not getting into the business of exact breakdowns. But the Tories need an eleven-point lead, evenly across the country, for an overall majority of one. Not going to happen. Hung Parliament.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP wants 20 seats. Also not going to happen. But it could probably hold the balance of power with half that. Very likely. The Tories at Westminster already call the SNPers there "the Cameron Highlanders", and treat them as part of the family.
Who needs the Lib Dems? They assume that they'd be important in a hung Parliament. But they needn't be. And this time, they wouldn't be.
The Tories may take or hold all three Scottish seats along the Border, and there will be other gains. They are going to do well in Wales. But their link-up with the UUP really doesn't seem to be going anywhere, with the one UUP MP now showing signs of putting up as an Independent against it.
They have no hope in North Down. The wonderful Sylvia Hermon cant stand the Tories.
ReplyDeleteIf they take any seat it will be South Belfast but thats unlikely.
Interesting candidate selected for 2010....Daphne Trimble in Lagan Valley....wife of the repulsive David now a Tory peer.
The fragrant Daphne and David lived in Lisburn for many years but I suspect her standing has more to do with antagonising Jeffrey "Daniel O'Donnell lookalike" Donaldson who defected to the DUP. And did more to sabotage the UUP than any other person.
Even if there is a hung parliament, and you don't want to get into the mechanics of that, it would seem most likely that none of the more minor parties would hold sway alone.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't believe me you might disbelieve the Scunner Salmond, who make out the opposite. Pretty reliable tip, Disbelieve Salmond.
Oh, and others claim that the tories need a slightly smaller poll lead then 11% to have a maj of 1.
How much money is being leeched out of Westminster to support these provincial dreamers?
ReplyDeleteI would love to know how much money this costs?
"How much money is being leeched out of Westminster to support these provincial dreamers?"
ReplyDeleteMorgan hasn't been bad, actually. It is for New Labour at Westminster that Labour in Wales is being punished. Beautifully.
"If you don't believe me you might disbelieve the Scunner Salmond, who make out the opposite. Pretty reliable tip, Disbelieve Salmond."
I do. He's talking about 20 seats. No chance. Where? How?
"Oh, and others claim that the tories need a slightly smaller poll lead then 11% to have a maj of 1."
Then they can't count. Or, whisper it not, have their own agenda.
Belfast South, eh? Old citadel of Robert Bradford and Martin Smyth...
Last I heard, the Trimbles were living in the Home Counties.
Ah David and Daphne are I believe living near Brighton.
ReplyDeleteA most interesting couple. Trimble divorced Heather and within two years was married to the fragrant Daphne...he was Daphnes tutor at QUB.
There is school of thought that says Davey gave it all up for love.
Having been in Bill Craigs Vanguard Party (deputy leader at one point) his divorce did not go down well in unionist circles. And rightly or wrongly he believes that his nemisis at QUB Law School was (later President) Mary McAleese.
The older folks around QUB do not speak well of him. Cant think why. Except of course Paul Bew who got him into the Henry Jackson way of thinking.
Others spread the rumour that Trimble was a MI5 plant.
Either way his political career did not get off ground for about 15 years. even after he rejoined the UUP when VUP collapsed. Couldnt even get elected to Lisburn Council.
In part his leadership troubles with Unionist Party stem from that period in his life. not exactly popular with the matronly set or religious set.
And of course his temper is rather notorious.
Rev Robert Bradford is dead of course. I wont speak ill of him. He was however a member of the National Front (as were many Vanguard types)and had the very odd notion that Norn Irons Protestants were the lost tribe of Israel. Very very very lost tribe of Israel I would suggest.
Rev Martin Smyth is one of the nicest men I have ever met.
What is the difference between Canadian and American sheep?
ReplyDeleteThey bleat in different sovereign states with entirely different histories and cultures.
ReplyDeleteMight just add that our local news is tonite reporting that the Sylvia Hermon snubbed the UUP Conference at the weekend. She is quoted as saying that as she opposes the link up with the Tories it would be hypocritical of her.
ReplyDeleteSo she is even more detached.
In North Down the Tories will likely select Ian Parsley (sic) from the North East of England (any info welcome David) a public school boy who stood for the alliance in Junes Euro election before deciding in July that he wasa Tory all along.
The alliance Party has a presence in North Down but I reckon they would rally round Sylvia tactically. Indeed even I could be convinced not to vote SF (1%) or SDLP (4%) in North Down if it meant ensuring Sylvia to whom I am indebted personally getting the seat.
The Greens got a MLA elected there for Stormont but again that support would drain away to Sylvia.
Unfortunately DUP has a pretty solid base but can only win if the vote between Sylvia and the Tory UUP man is split.
Could Sylvia even join the Alliance Party?
Its possible. Theyd love to have her as theyd see it as a breakthru but ironically she can do better on her own and thrive on a certain ambiguous "Independedt" appeal.
...all of which confirms North Downs position as the leading place for mavericks (Kilfedder)and nutters/egotists (McCartney)
"They bleat in different sovereign states with entirely different histories and cultures"
ReplyDeleteEr apart from their systems of government and to a certain degree their judiciary no. The sheeps' owners speak with a similar accent, enjoy the same sports and of course tonnes of ordinary and famous Canuks live in the States including the brother of her Maj's former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada L. Nielsen (think Police Squad!)
They have the same puritanical attitude towards alcohol, enjoy the same tv programmes (made in the USA, starring Canuks). Their shops use price tags net of sales tax (so causing confusion at the till).
Their courtrooms are of a similar design, they have "attorneys" not solicitors and barristers, Canuk prosecutors are styled in some provinces as "Crown Attorneys".
The both have elementary, junior high and high schools.
They have the same lack of holidays for workers, the same right-wing politics (albeit with the Canuks having a bit more of a social conscience).
History - the two are interlinked. Before, during and after the War of Independence and 1812.
Etc
Have you been to both countries?
Oh, do give it up. This bad undergraduate rubbish is beneath you. And one would expect a Scottish Ntaionalist to be pro-Canadian. But then, Canada does cleave to the Crown. Mind you, so does the SNP.
ReplyDeleteFor whom are you going to vote now that the SNP has given up on independence and become a pressure group for ever-higher central government spending?
The Aberdonian is another neocon who wants us to be Americans and is pleased that we so much are these days. David is widely read among patriotic Canadians. Long may he remain.
ReplyDeleteLong will I remain.
ReplyDelete