Can there really be any more doubt about it?
The Russian half can now either be incorporated directly into Russia, or else become the sort of nominally independent state that might as well be. And the other half can keep applying unsuccessfully to be let into NATO, which won't touch it for fear of annoying Russia, as well as joining the EU.
Something similar, though happier, will happen soon enough when Transnistria becomes independent under Russian influence while the rest of Moldova re-joins Romania.
Few people in Ukraine will really mind. And no one in Transnistria or Moldova would mind in the least.
The EU breaks places up in order to swallow the pieces: Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and now Ukraine and Moldova, even if it will only be getting one piece of each, and even if they were always going to split up eventually (unlike Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Spain, Belgium or the United Kingdom). Britons, Belgians and Spaniards, take note.
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