Says Martin Meenagh:
Many thanks to the oil drum for doing what the mainstream media are not, and keeping an eye on Saudi oil promises.
On August 11 2004, Saudi Arabia promised to increase oil production to 9.3 million barrels per day, for the foreseeable future, and then to increase production further.
On April 26, 2005, the Saudi government promised to increase oil production to 12.5 million barrels per day.
On July 31, 2007, they were back, promising an increase again--but this time, to only 10.8 million barrels per day, which they should have reached anyway.
And today's great promise of an increase? to 9.2 million barrels per day.
How much oil does anyone realistically think they have left at viable prices?
Two years ago, the writing was on the wall. It was written by a combination of food and oil price increases because of peak oil, combined with a falling off in money markets, and a vast global overhang of capital. It said that these things would lead to stagflation and monetary crisis.
Very few people read and learned outside of the blogosphere.
One year ago, it was very clear that the combination of Islamism and demographic instability in the world could be intelligently and systematically combatted. The effort would involve attempts to spark Islamic reformation, promote thinkers like Father Koerner and Gulen in Turkey, and to withdraw from vast wastes of time, energy and blood in middle eastern wars whilst using intelligence agencies, military power, and trade wisely.
Nobody in power listened. Even George Bush's former man in the Sudan has published a piece in Foreign affairs this month crying out for someone to learn.
Today, it is fairly obvious that global warming as a consequence of man-made carbon is fairly unstable, unsure science, and that new, decentralised energy production, distributed systems of local food production, and the emergence of a new argument for social ownership, the limitation of profit, and much more limited, democratic, even libertarian government is vital.
These simple facts will challenge almost all of our self-styled 'political', 'left-wing', 'green' and 'compassionate' politicians and commentators. So most of them are not listening.
It is also fairly obvious that, although our technology may be able to save us from what is coming, it won't save us from a global slump. It will not save us from a war of choice in Iran. It will not save us from the break-up of the euro.
Nor will we be saved by the inevitable increases in pathological, useless, security measures as states become more fearful, and central banks more dependent upon the diminishing mirage of their own control of interest rates.
We will not be saved from the collapse of bee populations. That may seem a silly point, but without them there is no agriculture that can feed us properly. Here's a link on that latter note to the celcias site, some of which I disagree with but which you might take a look at.
We will only be saved by our reason, and by whatever it is that makes us love.