The BoJo Revolution?

Peter Hitchens writes:

In fact, it's interesting that Ken Livingstone won in 2004 with far fewer votes than he lost with in 2008 (if you add 1st and 2nd preferences together, he got 828,380 in 2004 and 1,028,996 in 2008). The fact that London was a higher poll results from several things:

The amazing amount of coverage devoted to a purely local election in national media, much of it with an axe to grind; the fact that London is actually now an EU province, the only equivalent in England of the EU provinces in Scotland,Wales and Northern Ireland; the fact that this province has an elected head of state, the only one that does in what is still officially a monarchy. I'd add the fact that Ken Livingstone is a brand on his own, who exists independently from the Labour Party, has little connection with Gordon Brown. There's also the very significant fact that many media figures on the left, notably Andrew Gilligan, Nick Cohen and Martin Bright, joined the anti-Livingstone campaign, knowing perfectly well that this would help Boris Johnson. Would they have done this if David Cameron hadn't liberalised the Tories? You must be joking. But I think a lot of left-liberal voters saw this as permission to defect from Ken, either to abstention, to Brian Paddick (the Liberal) or even to Boris Johnson.

Then there's the 'Have I got news for You' factor. I once appeared on this ghastly programme (yes, they were desperate, desperate to get somebody 'right wing' on it so as to try to look balanced). Even that one appearance (they cut out one of my two perfectly decent unscripted jokes) gave me a taste of what real TV celebrity might be like. I was more or less used to a small number of politically interested people recognising me from programmes such as 'Question Time'. But after being on 'Have I..." just once, I found the number of complete strangers who recognised me shot up, and went well beyond the borders of the politically interested. This was showbusiness. And Boris Johnson has been on it not just once, but (I think) dozens of times. He is, as I pointed out, a major brand in British public life, and his humour, likeability and self-depreciation are hugely attractive to people who do not share his politics, and who suspect (in my view rightly) that Boris Johnson's personality is more important than his politics, which are rather vague.

So I don't think I'm persuaded that a Johnson victory in London (itself a completely untypical part of the country) is proof that the Tories will or can win the next election. It would be a loss of nerve, given the real results in the local elections and given these specific factors, to abandon a long-held judgement (this *judgement* is entirely separate from my *opinion* , that the Unconservatives *shouldn't* win. That opinion won't change even if I'm the last person alive that holds it). But I will admit that I had underestimated the concerted will of the left-liberal media elite to get David Cameron into Downing Street, and also underestimated the ability of Gordon Brown to dig himself deeper into the deep mineshaft he is in.