Big Change?

Where were the Whips? Kate Ferguson writes:

Josh Simons secretly met with Andy Burnham a year ago and told pals afterwards: “Keir Starmer is finished – the next PM has to be Andy.” The Labour politician sensationally quit his Makerfield seat this week to allow Mr Burnham a chance to challenge the PM – blindsiding No10. Mr Simons has claimed he only made the decision this week after quizzing the Greater Manchester Mayor at his home about his ideas for government.

But The Sun on Sunday can reveal that he actually spent A YEAR weighing up splitting from Sir Keir and throwing his weight behind Andy for PM. A Labour MP said: “He was talking about breaking with Keir last summer. He went to see Andy to speak to him about his ideas. “Then he said the PM was finished and that the next leader had to be Andy Burnham.”

The bombshell revelation came as Wes Streeting announced he WILL run for Labour leader as he launched a blistering attack on Sir Keir Starmer and called to rejoin the EU, Andy Burnham said he is running to “save Labour” and the party needs to return to its working class roots, senior Keir loyalists privately admitted he would have to quit and there would be an “Andy coronation” if Mr Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, and City insiders warned an Andy Burnham premiership would trigger market meltdown.

Mr Simons stunned Westminster when he announced on Thursday that he was quitting so Mr Burnham could run and have a tilt at the leadership. His bombshell decision blindsided No10 and plunged Sir Keir’s premiership into turmoil. But now The Sun on Sunday can reveal that he has been toying with the decision since last August after a meeting at the pub with Mr Burnham. The pair spent the sunny evening “sinking pints and putting the world to rights”.

Mr Simons had been impressed with Andy before this after the Greater Manchester mayor helped him when his local area was flooded. But it was this crucial evening on a balmy summer’s evening that left Mr Simons convinced Sir Keir was finished and only Mr Burnham could save Labour. A pal of Mr Simons said: “They sunk some pints and put the world to rights. He left thinking only Andy could reconnect Labour with its northern, working class roots and fix the big problems facing Britain. He doesn’t think Andy is the messiah. There is no saviour for Labour. But he thinks Andy can get things done and connect with people. And that really matters.” Mr Simons was still a Cabinet Office minister at the time.

Embattled Sir Keir is battling to cling on to his job as PM after 96 Labour MPs called for him to quit over the local election bloodbath. He has insisted he will not quit as PM, but even his closest allies privately admit he will have to go if Mr Burnham wins a byelection against Reform and returns to Westminster. And No10 has ditched talk of Sir Keir having a decade in power.

Then again, Jessica Elgot, Alexandra Topping, Hannah Al-Othman and Josh Halliday write:

For weeks, Andy Burnham’s supporters had told MPs to “hold the line”, that he had a seat in parliament in his sights and that he would be a contender in any leadership contest. That was never the full truth.

His path to No 10 – if he makes it – is littered with more failed attempts than almost any other politician. Two leadership contests, a block on a return in Gorton and Denton, and quite a few aggrieved MPs in the north west who have had to spend weeks batting off suggestions they will give their seats up for him.

By Thursday this week, with almost all the likely contenders ruling themselves out, Burnham’s backers in parliament were getting desperate. Only the tiniest handful of the Greater Manchester mayor’s closest advisers knew the truth: there was finally a seat coming which no one expected.

When Wes Streeting announced at 1pm on Thursday that he was resigning from Keir Starmer’s cabinet, it set off a bombshell ; outwardly, things did not look hopeful. Streeting had not launched a leadership bid, and Burnham still ostensibly had no seat in Westminster from which to make his own challenge.

Locked out of parliament, Burnham seemed to be no further on than when he made his last leadership tilt, which was ended by the Labour national executive committee’s refusal to let him run in the Gorton and Denton byelection.

The mood among his supporters was bleak. “It’s a shit cocktail,” said one. “We’re all doomed.” But Burnham, as some other famous northerners once said, got by with a little help from his friends. Behind the scenes, his team got to work and finally, on Thursday, an opportunity appeared.

“It was always a case of just sitting and waiting,” said one source close to Burnham. While there was not an obvious seat, the sense was that Labour’s dismal performance in Gorton and Denton, plus disastrous results in the local election, could “unlock that route back”.

The confidence of hindsight, however, masks what has been a fraught week for team Burnham. As the guessing game of who would give up their seat took hold in the parliamentary press gallery, names and refusals began to stack up.

Paula Barker, the MP for Liverpool Wavertree, said she would be delighted if a seat could be found for Burnham, but, asked by the BBC if she’d give up her own, the answer was: “No.” Five MPs whose seats had been linked to a Burnham leadership bid all refused to stand down.

Over the previous weekend, those close to the Burnham campaign are understood to have had a seat in mind, the Manchester Rusholme seat of Afzal Khan. But Khan is thought to have changed his mind, with some MPs suggesting interventions from No 10 played a part.

Marie Rimmer, the MP for St Helens South and Whiston, was said to hold the other seat in play. Not according to her. “I just said: ‘No, absolutely not,’” Rimmer told The Guardian when asked about being approached by allies of Burnham. “I was appalled, actually. Really insulted and disgusted.”

Behind the scenes, nerves were jangling. One Labour source said team Burnham had attempted to “bully people into stepping down” and had even offered the Greater Manchester mayoralty in exchange for a parliamentary seat. Khan was rumoured to have been offered a seat in the Lords. But he dismissed the suggestion, telling The Guardian: “There was never any question of me giving up my seat, it’s not true.”

By Tuesday, Burnham was on the west coast mainline in an effort to win over MPs and unions in person while negotiations intensified. Several MPs told Burnham they backed him, but were worried about the financial implications of losing their jobs.

Then a wildcard arrived out of nowhere. Talks opened with Josh Simons, the 32-year-old Makerfield MP who has long been disillusioned with Starmer and came to believe Burnham should be the next prime minister more than a year ago. The pair became close over the last two years, after Burnham, not Whitehall, came to his aide after major floods in Platt Bridge.

“I think being a constituency MP radicalised Josh to how broken the country is,” said one friend. “He is so young, it is such a sacrifice.” Another close friend said: “Burnham knows how to advocate for the people and not for the system.”

Simons only began to seriously consider giving up his seat this week, The Guardian understands. The final decision was made after Burnham went to see Simons at home with his wife, Leah, an American economist who Simons met at Harvard and who has recently given birth to their third child. They spent two hours asking in-depth questions about Burnham’s plan for government, his economic strategy, his position on financial markets, and what he could really do in office.

Then, at 5.14pm on Thursday, a little over five hours after Streeting’s resignation, Simons announced he was stepping aside to pave Burnham’s way to Westminster.

But while the veteran politician has finally cleared the first hurdle, others remain. Labour’s majority in Makerfield was just 5,399 in 2024 and Reform UK won all the constituency’s wards in last week’s local elections. Nigel Farage has said his party will “throw absolutely everything” at the byelection, while the Greens have indicated they will properly contest it.

Burnham’s success was therefore existential, Simons told The Guardian. “The electoral story perfectly encapsulates the moral story; it’s the fight of our times,” he said.

“We are where the Democrats were in 2021, hurdling towards oblivion with an out-of-touch PM. It just needed something that could change the story. Burnham winning in Wigan, that does it.”

Just 25 minutes after Simons announced he would be stepping aside, Burnham confirmed he would run. “There is only so much that can be done from Greater Manchester,” he said in a statement. “This is why I now seek people’s support to return to parliament: to bring the change we have brought to Greater Manchester to the whole of the UK and make politics work properly for people.”

And, as the candidate took to the streets around his home for a jog in a vintage football shirt on Friday, the message was clear: he’s running.

But across it all, Cameron Baillie writes:

Keir Starmer and his government have been roundly despised since the very beginning of his time in No.10. His approval tanked like few PMs in living memory. It’s not hard to see why: disability payment cuts, refusal to negotiate on the Birmingham bin strikes, abandoning pensioners in a winter energy poverty crisis, providing military intelligence and diplomatic support to Zionist genocide war crimes, racist scapegoating, appointing Jeffrey Epstein’s “best friend” to ambassador, the list goes on. Now, add to that Starmer’s general treachery and disregard for honesty and public wellbeing, and we’re left with a clear picture of widespread contempt. It’s fair to say that few will miss him, across the political compass. As Starmer appears set to exit, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is touted as a sensible, moderate replacement for PM — if only he can navigate a sinister NEC.

The ‘Big Burnham’ push

Burnham is considered by many to be on Labour’s “soft-left,” somewhat removed from Westminster bubble thinking, and representing a popular, alternative vision of Labourism. With his routine floating as PM replacement for months now, it almost feels like a done deal. But now it’s really happening. His Wigan-based colleague, journalist intimidator Josh Simons MP, stepped down and publicly told him to run for the top spot. . This might be a welcome turn of events for some on the left — less right-wing is always better, no? Novara Media are hard-soft-backing Burnham; no doubt The Guardian will anoint him Keir’s heir. He is floated as the only positively-rated politician in Britain. But I suggest that Burnham should not be considered a progressive or any-type “left” voice. I first had doubts about Burnham when he refused to comment on the bloody business dealings of Gulf oligarchs whose money he gladly funnels into Manchester. Man City’s owner is now under intense scrutiny for funding atrocities in Sudan.

Why Burnham is not in the ‘Mainstream’ 

Barely a year into Starmer’s premiership, a new political organisation named Mainstream was co-founded within Labour. Burnham and Clive Lewis were co-founders alongside others committed, at least in pixels, to a “democratic socialist future.” So far, so good? Sure — it would be swell if Labour was less ragingly right-wing. Fewer drab Starmer Speeches would be welcome. Clive Lewis offering to sacrifice his own seat to achieve that suggests a degree of principle I won’t scoff at. But I simply don’t think Burnham will deliver that future. To understand why I’m poo-pooing Burnham, who is no doubt popular across much of Greater Manchester. That said, Reform UK are now too. Much of what he supports, or has historically supported, is in fact widely unpopular — even if the man himself is well liked. His historical record in office makes my case.

Burnham’s burning record

In 2003, Burnham voted to declare an entirely and foreseeably disastrous war on Iraq. He also backed the notoriously debunked UN Security Council resolution pressuring the country to disarm weapons it didn’t have, three weeks prior. That war killed at least one million Iraqis, triggered societal collapses, enabled endemic corruption, and cost the lives of many British soldiers and civilians alike. Oh, and he also voted against the inquiry into that war.  He’s not alone in that, having joined Labour Friends of Israel. He wasn’t quiet about his “friendship”, labelling the peaceful, righteous BDS movement “spiteful” and praising the Balfour Declaration. Incredibly, he called Israel a beacon of democracy with “a long history of protecting minorities and promoting civil rights.” Yeah, right (-wing).

He’s made conciliatory statements around Palestine — Middle East Eye makes a more sympathetic case for him. But he hasn’t, for example, pressured Greater Manchester Pension Fund to divest its many millions from Israeli genocide and apartheid, like it did against apartheid in white-dominated South Africa. Burnham was even criticised by arch-neoliberal Cameron’s government for “posturing” against NHS privatisation, while supporting it during the Blair-Brown years. Not to mention he’s remained comfortably prominent through Blairism, Corbynism and now Starmerism (if something so definable exists), suiting himself to each guise.

Never trust a shapeshifter

I’m not deluded enough to think that Burnham isn’t popular and he would be better than Starmer – it’s not a high bar. If Burnham wins and gives us all proportional representation, I’ll eat my words. But I don’t trust Burnham’s promises. How can I trust someone who votes for an illegal, murderous war based on lies, flip-flops between both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian coloniser-colonised dynamic, and backs NHS privatisation? It’s clearly not just me that mistrusts Burnham — or, at least, I hold actual knowledge about Burnham’s record against his constant aura-branding. The public shouldn’t based on his record, like him as much as they do. How can we forget that millions marched against the Iraq War, most Britons dislike Israel, and 84% support a publicly owned, socialised NHS?

Covering the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, I met Labour-gone-Green and Labour-gone-Reform voters alike. Many said they would’ve voted for Burnham if he wasn’t blocked. Many cited his well-branded ‘Bee’ bus network and capped fares, his Covid-era posturing or his supposed personal charisma/brand/vision. Some liked his so-called “Manchesterism.” But we’ve seen where Labour’s fluid, PR-branding politics gets us — exactly where we are today. When Burnham tried and failed to stand against Jeremy Corbyn for leadership in 2015, he did so on a vacuous platform of “big change” — sound familiar? It’s almost as if the Starmer script was written in advance by the Blairite-Mandelson core, and they tried to run it sooner but failed. Now, it seems, they will fail again. Burnham might be a shot better than Starmer, sure. But don’t be fooled into thinking he can be trusted. Why trust a man who’s shapeshifted so often throughout his career? He’ll only shift again.