On Commission

Labour has not endorsed Martin Schulz for President of the European Commission, specifically because he is "a federalist", and MEPs are now fending off claims that it intends to disaffiliate from the Party of European Socialists.

Tellingly, no one with any say in the matter has been found to pass comment. Only MEPs.

Do not expect it to happen. But watch what does happen over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, with its threat the sacred and inviolable, and characteristically British, National Health Service.

Institutionalised semi-detachment from the PES, already effectively in place due to the non-endorsement of Schulz, will become inevitable when Labour votes against the TTIP.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have not endorsed Guy Verhofstadt, with their Leader putting his MEPs firmly in their place by declaring that, "Nick Clegg will not be campaigning with Guy Verhofstadt and does not support at all his views of a federal Europe."

Read that over again. I have been predicting a Lib Dem shift on the EU for years. But then, I have been predicting a lot of things for years. To pick an example almost at random, let's just say "Paedophile Information Exchange", and leave it at that. For now.

Since the Conservative Party is no longer a member of the European People's Party, it has of course not endorsed Jean-Claude Junker. But its European Conservatives and Reformists have not nominated anyone. 

Therefore, the British Conservatives have not actually declined to endorse Junker, they are not signed up to any alternative, and, although they will probably abstain, in a tight spot most or all of them could be persuaded to vote for him in order to stop either or both of Schulz and Verhofstadt.

Whereas Labour, having explicitly declined to endorse Schulz, could not possibly vote for him, and would therefore abstain, with any rebels paying the price of rebellion, in this case quite possibly in the form of expulsion from the party.

While the Lib Dems, having explicitly declined to endorse Verhofstadt, could not possibly vote for him, and would therefore abstain, with any rebels paying the price of rebellion, in this case quite possibly in the form of expulsion from the party.

Thus would both Labour and the Lib Dems refuse to vote for federalist candidates, certainly disciplining and possibly expelling any member who did.

At the same time, most of all Conservatives, even with staged expressions of weariness and regret, would vote for a no less federalist candidate, certainly without any negative consequence from David Cameron, and most probably on his specific instruction.