People across the
spectrum need to take a deep breath and calm down. A four-party system cannot
exist under First Past The Post.
In any case, UKIP has
taken one quarter of the vote, and has therefore failed to take the other three
quarters, on a very low turnout in elections held only in the English counties
that no longer contain any significant centres of population (everywhere of any
real size is now a unitary authority), in the fairly small City of Bristol, and
on the Isle of Anglesey.
Were it not for the
fact that the Tories no longer exist except in those places, and not even in all of
them, then there would be no story here. Even as it is, there is not much of
one. UKIP still has fewer Councillors than the Greens, and no seats in the
House of Commons.
And as a proportion of
the electorate, hardly anyone lives in the remaining heartlands of the
Conservative Party, if they can be so described. We are talking about a two-way
scramble for the Tory section of the vote, which is not the whole of it, in the
deep shires, and really only in the deep shires of the South. That is a
sideshow.
It is not even likely
to contribute much to the Labour victory in 2015. That victory would have
happened anyway, and would mostly have happened elsewhere.
"We are talking about a two-way scramble for the Tory section of the vote,"
ReplyDeleteNot a single serious pollster believes that any more-the evidence proves UKIP are capturing large numbers of Labour supporters...and not just in South Shields and Eastleigh.
As Peter Hitchens writes today, this is the beginning of an historic "chance to build something better".
And, when it comes, it's going to wipe Labour into the sea.
He has been saying that for far longer than you can have been reading him with any real comprehension.
ReplyDeleteLabour lost no seat, not one, to UKIP, from which it gained one. UKIP did not win either Eastleigh or South Shields. Whatever the BBC might think in the former case, especially.
At South Shields, Labour held its share. Over 50 per cent. On a nine-way split. Half as many people voted at a by-election, that was all. Nothing to worry about there. Nothing.
On a 30 per cent turnout, 25 per cent voted for UKIP. Meaning that 75 eligible voters in every one thousand did so.
UKIP won no seats in Nottinghamshire (where it lost one to Labour), Derbyshire, Cumbria, Lancashire, Durham, Staffordshire, Warwickshire or Hertfordshire. It won only one in Wiltshire and two in the whole of Yorkshire, as well as a mere two in Shropshire.
UKIP failed to win a single seat on Durham County Council, despite the proportionately large Tory and Lib Dem losses, which were all to Labour; Labour did so well that it now has a Councillor, on a unitary County Council (not a Parish, such as I was on when I was 21), who this time last year was the Head Boy of my old school. That's right. He is 19. His seat was not Labour this time last week.
Labour became the largest party in Lancashire, in Cumbria and in Northumberland; that third result was bordering on the miraculous. Directly from the Tories, Labour captured both Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, in the supposed UKIP heartland of the East Midlands, which is a key General Election battleground.
Add in the holding up of the vote share at South Shields, and there is nothing for Labour to worry about. Nothing.
ReplyDelete"Polling by YouGov commissioned for the research also found that when people were asked which party best stands up for English interests, Ukip topped the list on 21%, followed by Labour (19%), Conservatives (17%) and the Lib Dems (6%)."
"Ukip supporters are the most dissatisfied with the constitutional status quo in the United Kingdom, with 49% saying England should become an independent country, compared to just 36% of Tories, 35% of Lib Dems and 29% per cent of Labour supporters."
Labour failed to even get back the seats it lost in 2009-and its against the worst Government in living memory-an abysmal failure.
You call that an opposition? Michael Foot was more successful.
No matter how much people hate this Government-nobody likes Miliband.
Face it, Dave. Your party is a joke.
This week is the beginning of the end for it. And time, as Mr Hitchens says, for something much better.
The only question worth asking is, "For whom are you going to vote?"
ReplyDeleteBetter even than that is to see how people actually do vote. And sceptical though I am about Projected National Shares, even the one from these English shire elections puts Labour at the top of the poll.
It easily came first past the post in the areas of numerous parliamentary seats that it does not currently hold - I repeat, in the English counties - whereas I should be interested to here of anywhere at all where UKIP managed that.
Keep saying it: fewer Councillors than the Greens, and no MPs.