Tuesday 26 November 2013

The Future, Not The Past

As someone once said.

Kevin Maguire writes:

The nuclear deal with Iran is a victory for peace over war.

We can celebrate diplomacy trouncing militarism, agreement reached around a table in Geneva instead of down a missile silo. Defusing a potential apocalypse is a golden opportunity to recast ­relations in the Middle East.

The wings of hawks, including ­Israel’s nuclear-armed leader Benjamin Netanyahu, are clipped. His threats of armed strikes – opposed by Israeli intelligence chiefs – ring hollow when the US, Iran’s Great Satan, is a signatory. The Arab Spring swiftly turned to winter but it would be irresponsible to squander the possibilities opened by the Persian Pact.

First we must acknowledge the hard lessons of recent history. The Iran deal is another nail in the coffin of the invasion of Iraq, fresh evidence there is an alternative to bloody and illegal wars. It’s a reminder of the futility of occupying Afghanistan, 27 Commons motions required to list all 446 dead British soldiers. And it vindicates public and political opposition in the summer to attacking Syria.

Foreign Secretary William Hague deserves credit for his role in securing Iran’s promise not to pursue a Weapon of Mass Destruction. Prime Minister David Cameron will claim a chunk of the credit, success having many parents. Yet there would’ve been no deal had Cameron and Hague won August’s vote to attack President Assad’s regime in Syria. Britain would’ve been sucked into a sectarian civil war, serving as al-Qaeda’s air force.

Iran along with Russia, another player in yesterday’s deal, would be fighting Britain, America and France in Syria instead of negotiating. The unlikely hero of the deal is Labour leader Ed Miliband. Rebellious MPs and the prospect of a minibus full of shadow front bench resignations strengthened his resolve. But the opposition leader played an indirect, though crucial, role on Iran by stopping US President Barack Obama pressing the button to bomb Syria. This is history as an unintended consequence.

And while we’re handing out bouquets, Euro Brit Catherine Ashton enjoys the last laugh over her ­chauvinist detractors. The EU’s top diplomat is another who should take a bow, Iran the perfect riposte from a “Lady Qui?” who will let the Iran breakthrough do her talking.

What’s happening in Iran improves the prospects of a settlement in Syria ahead of talks. Perhaps too the previously intractable Israel-Palestine conflict. In a few months or years we will look back on another false dawn if the nuke deal explodes.

Iran, it is worth remembering, denied intending to develop a bomb and Glasgow-educated President Hassan Rouhani isn’t instinctively hostile to Britain and other western powers. He’s more interested in lifting crippling economic sanctions than joining Israel, Britain and others in the nuclear club.

So for now we can hope the Iran deal signals peace is the future, and war is past.

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