Friday, 26 July 2013

There Is No Recovery I

With lots of graphs that I cannot seem to copy onto here, Sunny Hundal writes:

The media narrative is that the economy is recovering and George Osborne’s stock is rising.

This has given Tories a spring in their step and made some in Labour jittery about what this means in political terms.

The politics of this are irrelevant because Britain is not recovering and Labour should not let the Conservatives get away with saying it. Here’s a brief explanation why. 

1) Falling disposable incomes
As the Telegraph reported last month, ‘Recovery far off for families as disposable income sees biggest drop for 25 years’.

The report points out that the next election is likely to be the first since 1931 when living standards are lower than at the last one.

2) Averages wages are falling and showing no signs of recovery

Inflation is rising faster than pay so real wages have fallen since crisis, and there is no sign of recovery there.
http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2013/07/blogs/free-exchange/jvr_3.jpg
.
3) A flat GDP per capita

This graph by the Independent’s Ben Chu shows that while GDP as a whole may be rising slowly, the actual impact on households is virtually nil. The GDP per capita is flat
http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2894/9368495369_a8deb73e44.jpg
.
4) Investment into the UK is still in the doldrums

This chart is also by John Van Reenen at The Economist
http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2013/07/blogs/free-exchange/jvr_4_0.jpg
The Conservatives are talk about a recovery for which there is no evidence whatsoever.

The only impact this will have is make them look more out of touch with people’s actual experiences. By the time the election comes around in two years time, hardly anyone will believe Britain is improving thanks to Osborne.

2 comments:

  1. He didn't mention the two key facts.

    Not only is GDP doubling, but EVERY single industry is now growing again, for the first time in years.

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  2. For the perfectly good reason that it is not true.

    What a thing it must be, to be so utterly cocooned by such fabulous wealth as seriously to believe that there is an economic recovery going on in Britain at the moment.

    The very notion is being laughed and jeered off the stage by absolutely everyone else, even the upper middle classes.

    ReplyDelete