Referendum Results

Probably by the time that you read this, all seven will be in.

First, the referendum in Scotland (like Wales or Northern Ireland a single entity for European but no other electoral purposes) on the centrality of the constitutional question to political discourse there. If the SNP takes three of the six seats, then the fissure in Scottish political opinion really is on that question, so that that discourse must continue to be defined and conducted accordingly. But if no third seat is picked up by the SNP, then such is manifestly not the case, and the organisation of Scottish politics as if it were must cease forthwith.

Secondly, the referendum in Scotland on the (always exaggerated) importance of the Labour Party there. If Labour holds its second seat, then it will still deserve to be treated as more important than the Tories or the Lib Dems. But if it does not, then it no longer will.

Thirdly, the referendum in Northern Ireland on the UUP’s putative takeover by the Tories. If the UUP holds its seat, then, even if only by means of second preference votes, the Unionist community will have blessed that marriage. But if it does not, then that marriage will be positively cursed. A blessing, with everything that would follow from it, would make unanswerable both the moral and the electoral case for Labour (or its successors) and the Lib Dems (or their successors) to organise in Northern Ireland.

Fourthly, the referendum in Northern Ireland on, frankly, the continued existence of the SDLP. No one doubts that there will be enough votes to elect a Sinn Féin MEP. This being STV, there ought therefore to be enough second preference votes, at least, for the SDLP either to secure someone’s election or to run the UUP a very, very close fourth indeed. If there are not, then what is any longer the purpose of the SDLP? What is it for? But it never does quite as badly as predicted. So this is certainly one to watch.

Fifthly, the referendum on the continued existence of the BNP. If, even under these circumstances and using this electoral system, it cannot elect anyone at all, then it is finished.

Sixthly, the referendum on the Political and Media Classes’ attitude to their fellow-citizens. If the BNP is not successful, then the knuckle-dragging proles do not exist in any great numbers (there is no suggestion that they do not exist at all), and we as a people do not need to be lorded over by our betters, but rather to govern ourselves in and through our genuinely elected and accountable representatives at every level. This is most especially a referendum on the true character of the white working class, and thus on how that class deserves to be treated economically, socially, culturally and politically.

And seventhly, the referendum on the “big” three political parties, with their lavish State funding, their privileged media access, and all the rest of it. In particular, if Labour and the Tories do not better their combined forty-two per cent of the eligible vote (not just the votes cast, but the votes that could have been cast) at the last General Election, then the game really is over once and for all.