Theresa May is not a Leader in Waiting. UKIP only has to nominate a candidate and she will lose her seat to the Lib Dem.
Forget the result last time. That
was a different age now. I mean, she once lived round the corner from where I
am sitting as I type this. But then was when she was trying to unseat
Hilary Armstrong. In 1992. Who cares?
The Lib Dems have a history of decapitation
strategies, and that was before they had UKIP to do the work for them
merely by being on the ballot and putting out a leaflet.
The same goes for David Davis. UKIP could just not field a candidate against him. But that would make both of them look ridiculous. Not to say, more than a little suspicious.
Theresa May now has a majority of over 16,000, and UKIP has stood in her constituency in the last 4 general elections when she has been candidate. Likewise UKIP stood between 1997 and 2005 in David Davis' constituency, although they didn't last time around, but his majority is now over 11,000.
ReplyDeleteThe Lib Dem attempt at decapitation in 2005 largely failed. They managed to dislodge Tim Collins in 2005 is a seat that they have now made their own, but failed to dislodge OLiver Letwin, Liam Fox, David Davis and Theresa May.
That was then.
ReplyDeleteA raw nerve has very obviously been touched, I see. With the Tories already facing wipeout by Labour in the North and the Midlands, any UKIP candidates will mean scores of Southern Tory seats lost to the Lib Dems on that same night.
A Labour majority of over 80, and the two Con Dem parties so evenly matched that they will be given parity on the floor of the House: equal numbers on committees, the same number of PMQs for their respective Leaders, and so on.
Thank you, still-seatless UKIP.
Scores is a bit optimistic :P Given the general elections of 2005 and 2010 a handful of Tory losses to the Lib Dems would be more likely, with a handful going t'other way too!
ReplyDeleteAnyway, good posts, I enjoy your blog.