The Maronite Patriarch's
echoing of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah's call for a sort of universal blasphemy law is an
important pointer: it would be wrong on the proposed global scale, but there is presumably
already such a thing in Lebanon, since how could the country function without
one? We had better get used to that sort of perspective, because Lebanon now looks like the
coming place as Israel is taken over by the Haredim with (rather aberrantly in
their own terms, but there we are) their extremely low levels of general
education and of economic productivity. The only people still doing anything in that Land are going to be the almost equally fecund Arabs.
Even Sunni, increasingly Salafi
Tripoli is the Prime Minister's constituency, the Prime Minister who is in
office because both Hezbollah and the Maronite militia veterans around General
Aoun wanted and want him. So at least a good proportion of the Sunnis in
Lebanon are obviously no keener on the Saudis than their compatriots are. It is
still within living memory that an immemorial Christian-Muslim society and
culture, over which Christian sovereignty (Roman, Byzantine, Crusader, British)
has been the historical norm, were destroyed further south, and it is no wonder
that neither the Christians nor the Muslims in Lebanon are inclined to risk the
same fate. Direct or indirect protection by Iran, which has reserved
parliamentary representation for her ancient indigenous Christians and which
more to the point is the enemy both of Israel and of Saudi Arabia, suits them
down to the ground.
The rise of Lebanon, although it would be placed at enormous risk by any victory on the part of the Islamist insurrection in and invasion of Syria, would be a striking example of how such a thing could be attained by a country with a large, historically definitive, and constitutionally entrenched Christian population even if half of the population at large were Muslim, a situation which, if it ever happens anywhere in Western Europe, will not do so until long after we are all dead. And that really does mean a Christian population, not a pseudo-Western one as defined by neoconservatism. Specifically, it means numerically and otherwise a predominantly and observantly Catholic population. Learn the lessons well. There is every sign that we are about to be taught them.
Yes, all the investment is going to decamp north to Lebanon as the Frummers take over Israel. It is the country to watch. You obviously already have important ties to it, one of many things making you a man to watch.
ReplyDeleteYou are very kind. One does one's best.
ReplyDeleteOne's best as now something approaching a grandee of the most Arabist university in Britain, maybe in the English-speaking world as a whole now that so many mainline WASPs and Catholic/Orthodox white ethnics in the States have gone neocon. That best is as good as it gets.
ReplyDeleteOne tries one's best.
ReplyDeleteWhile lunching with Arab princes in Durham Castle.
ReplyDeleteAmong other contexts, yes.
ReplyDeleteAlso in attendance was the Iranian who has been appointed to the Chair that His Highness has endowed. A very positive sign.