A Dangerous Cycle of Escalations

Anthony J. Constantini writes:

After more than two and a half years of conflict, it is becoming abundantly clear that Ukraine is not going to win the Russo-Ukrainian War. While it is also apparent that Russia will not achieve its maximalist goal of regime change in Kyiv, Ukraine will almost certainly fail to reconquer Crimea, the Donbas and most of the land occupied by Russia. The Ukrainian government, however, has refused to accept this reality and — with the tacit support of the West — has, out of desperation, engaged in a dangerous cycle of escalations. The latest, and most concerning of these, has been their recent invasion of Kursk.

Perplexingly, many throughout the West have cheered the Kursk incursion. Some seem to believe that it will weaken Vladimir Putin’s standing in Moscow, while others have suggested that the Ukrainian government could use occupied Kursk as a bargaining chip to get their own occupied lands back whenever Russia and Ukraine engage in serious negotiations. Finally, some simply seem to enjoy watching Russia flail and struggle.

Let us dispense with the latter first. Russia is indeed flailing and it is obviously embarrassing that Ukraine was able to punch so far into Russian territory. But the West should not let something akin to childish glee override their sense of strategy in any conflict (much less one now involving the invasion of a nuclear power). Those cheering should also keep in mind that Ukraine attacking areas with Russian civilians has hindered its ability to complain about attacks on its own civilians.

As for Kursk being used as a bargaining chip, it beggars belief that Russia will ever allow that plan to come to fruition. It does not take a Kremlinologist to understand that there is no universe in which Russia will crawl to the table, begging Ukraine for its land back. Ukraine’s government has, of course, made similar statements about refusing to negotiate for their own land. But Russia has significantly more money, people and therefore time to slowly take back their territory. Ukraine does not.

Which brings us to the idea that Putin will somehow be weakened by this incursion. Just last year Yevgeny Prigozhin was able to lead a rogue army into the Moscow region; Putin emerged politically unaffected. If anything, this attack will inflame the passions of Russians who had previously either ignored the war or silently wished it to end.

What makes this move all the more dangerous is that Ukraine is effectively a client state of the West. While there is no public confirmation that the West knew about this incursion beforehand, it is almost laughable to suggest that they had no knowledge. NATO is in the process of appointing a representative in Kyiv, military trainers are operating within Ukrainian borders and it is an open secret that there are a good few people with American accents running around Kyiv. When combined with the fact that Ukraine has been waging this war with Western weapons, and has likely embarked upon this attack with Western foreknowledge, a concerning picture emerges: there is a possibility the West acceded to, funded, and may have even helped plan an attack on Russian territory itself.

Until now, Russia has mostly looked the other way as Ukraine and the West have burned through its red lines. Russia has not yet targeted Western military trainers in Ukraine, nor have they responded with force to Ukraine’s use of long range missiles to strike deep into Russia’s territory. But occasional Ukrainian strikes and a couple hundred Western military officials in Western Ukraine pale in comparison to the presence of foreign boots on Russian soil.

Correlation does not equal causation, and just because Russia has not responded in the past does not mean it will not respond now. There is a laundry list of actions Russia could have taken which it has yet to try. For example, the country has not seriously tried to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even though he has frequently travelled to the front and was well within range of Russian missiles. Likewise they have not targeted NATO bases or key checkpoints through which Western military aid has passed. It has not done so, because the West has made clear that these are red lines. However, if the West continues to push past Russia’s red lines, it is only a matter of time until Russia decides to ignore the West’s as well.

Ukraine’s desperation in fighting a losing war is understandable, but it is not understandable nor is it acceptable for the West to play along. Games of nuclear one-upmanship are exceedingly dangerous, and they are especially foolish when fought over lost causes. Hard as it may be for Ukraine to accept, they are likely not getting back most of the land now occupied by Russia. Anyone who believes otherwise is deluding themselves. The West should not delude itself too.