Monday 6 July 2020

Over The Wall

Jeremy Corbyn has changed the Conservative Party. Quite beyond recognition, in fact. At his age, probably for the rest of his life. And to have changed the Conservative Party, which is almost always led by the Prime Minister, is the highest measure of a Labour Leader.

Corbyn is the only one to have done that without ever having become Prime Minister. He made huge mistakes. But he was ultimately a success. It is all about the Red Wall now, and trying to be FDR in order to hold these seats, and paying for all of that by means of Modern Monetary Theory.

This is not about Covid-19. Sajid Javid was sacked before anyone had ever heard of Covid-19, and the Budget was before we knew how severe it was going to be. Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak were always going to do this. Their electoral lives depended on it from the General Election result onwards. See how none of it is going to be reversed. There is a reason for that.

In the marginal seats in 2017, Corbyn came within 2,227 votes of becoming Prime Minister. Without what are now known to have been the machinations of his enemies on his party's own staff, who knows what might have happened? But the commitment to Brexit was still in place then.

Johnson and Sunak know perfectly well that their majority consists of places that voted for Corbyn in 2017, and which would have done so again in 2019 if he had held the Bennite line on Brexit. So that is what they are giving us: Corbynite Brexit.

That will hold these seats in 2024 while adding as many again. In other words, adding places that had voted for Corbyn both times. A certain number of people who had themselves done that will become Conservative MPs in 2024. And then, in some cases, Ministers. In a Conservative Government.

Here in North West Durham, there are no Conservative Councillors above Parish level, and there are not very many even there. That is quite typical of Red Wall seats. Scores of Conservative MPs now have practically no party organisation in their constituencies.

But the Conservatives are on course to double their Red Wall gains in 2024. For those seats, which had voted for Corbyn both times, who are those new MPs going to be? In many cases, they are going to be people who had themselves voted for Corbyn both times.

They probably will not have been Labour Party members, although you never know. But even so, welcome to the future of the Conservative Party. Welcome to the Ministers in a Conservative Government. People who had voted for Corbyn both times, sitting for constituencies that had voted for Corbyn both times.

Nor would any "populist" insurgency on the Right prove terribly popular in the old Conservative heartlands. If it had any impact at all, then it would be to revive the Liberal Democrats and to give a fillip to Keir Starmer's Labour Party by splitting the Conservative vote and turning blue seats either yellow or pale pink.

People may not like the idea of each others' sweeties, but they love the experience of their own. The Budget of March 2020 has ended the era that began with the Budget of 1976. The Centre is the think tank for this new era. It already has plenty going on.

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