12.3 per cent of people voted Conservative at Heywood and Middleton.
There is no purpose to claiming that that eighth or so "cost UKIP the seat". These are people who would no more vote UKIP than vote Labour. Or, indeed, anything other than Conservative. Ever.
And these are largely very, very, very right-wing people, indeed. Anyone who grew up in the North of England, or who has spent any length of time here, will know exactly what, and whom, I mean.
The same is doubtless also true of Scotland and of Wales. At least many of those who still insistently vote for the Ulster Unionist Party will be more than a little similar, too.
Some, but not all, of them can stretch to voting UKIP in European Elections, on the grounds that those do not really matter, and in any case ought not to be held.
Some, but not at all, of them can vote for, and indeed be, Independent Councillors, at least in the absence of Conservative candidates where the brand would be too toxic or for other tactical reasons.
But for the House of Commons, there is simply no question.
Some, but not all, of them can stretch to voting UKIP in European Elections, on the grounds that those do not really matter, and in any case ought not to be held.
Some, but not at all, of them can vote for, and indeed be, Independent Councillors, at least in the absence of Conservative candidates where the brand would be too toxic or for other tactical reasons.
But for the House of Commons, there is simply no question.
They vote as they do because they always have, because everyone in their family always has, and because they despise the other lot (in this case, the Labour Party), or its supporters, or both. Yes, that is tribal politics. So what if it is?
Meaning that it bothers them not one jot if they "prevent" UKIP from winning Labour seats. These are people who would no more vote UKIP than vote Labour. Or, indeed, anything other than Conservative. Ever.
You can't know that. Many Tory voters already have switched. However the real point is that those voters don't want Labour to win.
ReplyDeleteYet, if they vote Tory, Labour is what they'll get. It makes no sense.
Whereas ( in Heywood and Middleton and many other seats the Fabian Society research looked at ) if the UKIP and Tory vote combined it would wipe Labour out.
Combine the UKIP and Tory national vote in the European elections and they got over half of all votes cast.
Peter Hitchens demolition of David Cameron's false claim "vote UKIP-get Labour" is irrefutable.
As Peter says the truth is the reverse: actually it's "vote Tory-get Labour".
In fact, that's true even if the Tories win since there's no real difference between them.
Either way Cameron's argument is no reason at all to vote for him.
You can't know that.
DeleteI can. I do. I have been around them for as long as I can remember.
No party except the Tories is acceptable, or even conceivable, to them as a Commons, if any, vote. That is just that.
UKIP can no more reach them than Labour could. They are not interested. They never will be. At a very profound level, they never could be.
Any party other than the Tories, simply for being any party other than the Tories, is utterly beyond the Pale to them, either for Westminster or (in many cases; an eighth of the total vote does sound about right) for anything whatever.
That will always be the case. Always.
Peter Hitchens beautifully demolished Cameron's desperate attempt to cling on to his mass-migrating voters with that old chestnut "a UKIP vote is a Labour vote" by pointing out that the poll data from Northern seats including Heywood and Middleton shows it is actually the Tories that are splitting the UKIP vote and letting Labour in.
ReplyDeleteThe answer to Cameron is; "vote Tory get Labour".
In every sense.
And they don't care. They vote Tory because they vote Tory. Any other party is equally, because utterly, objectionable to them, simply for not being the Tories. The Tory core in the North is the hard, hard core.
DeleteWhat actually is the difference?
ReplyDeleteIf you want an open border to 27 other countries, foreign killers staying here because of an apparent "right to a family life", schools organised on the principle of an arid "equality" that decrees nobody should be allowed to fail, a policy that affords our historic national religion and culture the same public status as Islam (or Buddhism) and 70% of our laws made in Brussels, then vote EITHER Labour or Tory.
Same difference, as they say.
If you've had enough of that trash, come and join UKIP.
The difference, to the people under discussion, is that one is the Tories and the other isn't. They don't need anything more. You are wasting your time.
DeleteDavid
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely right. I also know these people in the South and anything other than Tory is unacceptable, even if their stated beliefs and values coincide more with UKIP.
But many such Tory voters have switched to UKIP. There are of course a few diehard tribalists who would vote for the Alsatian in a blue rosette.
ReplyDeleteBut there are certainly some more 'persuadables' out there among the collapsing Tory vote.
You have reached as many as you ever will. The rest are as James from Durham describes.
DeleteCome on, they care if they're helping Labour win.
ReplyDeleteThey just need to be made to realise that. Peter's tried.
No. They don't. They don't at all. Any non-Tory is the same as any other non-Tory to them, and utterly beyond the Pale.
Delete