Poll Positions

After all that, the Conservatives' "post-Conference bounce" amounts to a one-point lead, which is well within the margin of error.

Fed into Electoral Calculus, the poll results of the last few hours still translate into a healthy Labour overall majority.

Meanwhile, any effects of UKIP's adoption of broadly left-wing policies but extremely right-wing MPs and donors can be seen in the polling at Heywood and Middleton.

In 2010, the Conservatives and UKIP between them took 30 per cent. Tonight, UKIP is on 31 per cent. No real change whatever, just the Conservative minority vote transferred to UKIP.

In 2010, Labour took 40 per cent. Tonight, Labour is on 50 per cent. A 10-point increase.

A party attractive to Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless will not be, cannot be, and is not attractive to anyone who has ever voted Labour in their lives, never mind to anyone who has previously done so as a matter of course.

Someone always did come second in safe Labour seats, just as someone always did come second in safe Conservative seats. The electoral system is pointedly not called Second Past The Post.