The Lib Dems will not split. They will quietly fade away, mostly into the Conservative Party that actually defined itself by hoovering up Liberal Unionists, Liberal Imperialists, National Liberals, Alfred Roberts's daughter, those around the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the followers of David Owen, all of whom have successfully presented themselves to Tory voters as Tory politicians when not in fact any such thing. That essential fraud is the very definition of the Conservative Party.
No, if it's a split that you want, or at least that you want to keep an eye out for, then, dutifully ignored by the courtier media, there is now a body of MPs which is right-wing as variously defined, which is already about as large as the Lib Dems, which is growing steadily, and which functions increasingly as the separate party that it is difficult to see how it can avoid becoming in the course of this Parliament. Those MPs will not join UKIP. The very idea, darling. Rather, they will expect UKIP to join them.