Tuesday 17 April 2007

Scottish Election Prediction

I have this on excellent authority: Lab 40, SNP 38, Lib Dem 21, Con 20, Green 7, Solidarity 2, and Margo McDonald re-elected. Apparently, the polls don't take account of local variations, notably where a swing from Labour to the SNP would let in a Liberal or a Tory. Nor do they take account of the fact that the regional top-up lists are precisely that: regional, not national.
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7 comments:

  1. Richard Havers17 April 2007 at 17:35

    Do you really think the SSP are going to be wiped off the map? That's a genuine question and not sarcastic!

    I'm hunching here, but I think the Greens are going to be squeezed out and lose seats.

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  2. David Lindsay17 April 2007 at 17:50

    The SSP was Tommy Sheridan. Without him, it's nothing.

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  3. Tartan Hero17 April 2007 at 22:20

    David - your 'excellent authority' is going to be eating humble pie on 4 May.

    1 - Solidarity are struggling to get Tommy re-elected in Glasgow, never mind another region

    2 - the SSP have indeed bombed, so much so that Rosie Kane is going for a Glasgow Council seat as a fallback

    3 - the Greens are much stronger than either of the left parties, and are on the margin that either they re-elect 7/8 or possibly fall back to 3 or 4 but your 'authority' hasn't even recognised them

    4. even Labour have given up in a number of constituencies are falling back troops to protect 'middling' seats like Renfrewshire North and Stirling

    5. There is only one seat which Labour currently hold which with a swing of less than 5% to the SNP allows the Conservatives possibly to win (Stirling) or the Lib Dems (Edinburgh North & Leith) to win, and even in those seats a larger swing sees the SNP leapfrog from fourth and third to first

    The regional variations? Possibly Margo McDonald in Lothian. Jean Turner is on a hiding to nothing in Strathkelvin & Bearsden (Labour gain possibly), but likewise Pensioners Party unlikely to get back in Central Scotland. If Labour lose Govan and Kelvin in Glasgow (highly likely), Cumbernauld and Kilmarnock in Central Scotland (highly likely), and Paisley South and Clydebank in West of Scotland (highly likely), they do not get a single top up seat on the list. The vagaries of party strength viz the list top up needs to be better understood by your 'authority'

    Hope that gives a better picture from the grassroots..

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  4. Tartan Hero17 April 2007 at 22:22

    And I should have added, more Tories are voting SNP to kick out Labour which explains them bombing in the opinion polls but this time round, the polls are more accurate than the Tory Party locally would care to admit

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  5. David Lindsay21 April 2007 at 12:01

    It would have to be a hell of a swing to the SNP in Edinburgh North and Leith, since the SNP has next to no presence in Edinburgh (resulting, among other things, in the consistent failure of The Scotsman to take the SNP seriously).

    I submit that it is you who have not understood the party list system. If Labour lost any of the three seats that you list, then it would make up the difference on the party lists. And I really don't think that even those losses are very likely at all, never mind "highly likely".

    At the end of the day, the SNP has started with only 27 seats to Labour's 50: that is a HUGE mountain to climb. Moreover, the SNP is also a one-man band. After all, who else does it have? Sturgeon, a bad Sixth Form debater who couldn't even unseat Scotland's highest-paid lawyer in Govan? Or ... well, name another Nat.

    As for Tories voting SNP to kick out Labour, possibly the last sincere thing left in mainstream politics is Tory and Labour Unionism: they really do believe it, and so, if anything, will vote for each other to keep out the SNP.

    Furthermore, given the enormous ideological rifts in the SNP, it could never construct a programme for government: it would just split, if it had even survived beyond the inevitable loss of any referendum on independence.

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  6. Anonymous25 April 2007 at 12:16

    I disagree with the SSP. They have some chance. There is no way Solidarity will get 2.

    You are right that the polls right now alway underrate Labour's chances. Even you are convinced there will be a massive swing to the SNP. There will be a swing to the SNP, it is whether it will be even as large as you are suggesting.

    I think your Tory prediction is wild. They have had better chances to improve their position. Their potential voters are leaving for the Greens and Lib Dems.

    The "inevitable" loss of a referendum is strange. Such a prediction is far too early.

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  7. David Lindsay25 April 2007 at 23:08

    Really? It strikes me as obvious that there'd be a No vote in an independence referendum. And then what would become of the SNP? It is so divided ideologically that it would split to death.

    Anyway, what right has one part of the United Kingdom - my country, which no one has the right to take away from me - to presume to act in such a way? If there is to be a referendum on the continuing existence of the United Kingdom, then it should be a referendum purely and simply of the United Kingdom, as a single whole.

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