The Real, Unreported Story

With lots of links, Mehdi Hasan writes:

Do you hear it? The sound of goalposts being shifted? The Tories, it seems, would be perfectly happy with a hung parliament. Who needs a majority, eh? Today's papers are stuffed with quotes from Tory sources suggesting that, in the event of a hung parliament in which the Conservatives emerged as the largest single party, they would seek to govern as a minority rather than in a coalition. And this, we are expected to believe, gives the impression of unstoppable momentum, if not historic inevitability.

Don't make me laugh. Do I need to remind you of a period, not long ago, in which we were told, time and again, by Tory spinners and Tory journalists alike – and, yes, it can often be difficult to distinguish between the two – that the Conservatives would romp home in the general election? That May 2010 would be May 1997 in reverse?
Perhaps a few headlines might jog your memory:

A Tory landslide looks increasingly likely
Tories heading for landslide victory
Tories on course for a landslide
Tories on course for landslide win

Journalists, in general, and political journalists, in particular, have short memories. Over the course of this campaign, the media has treated Tory poll leads of six or seven points with awed respect. That the Conservatives once enjoyed a 28-point lead over Labour – back in September 2008 – has long been forgotten. (One leading Tory-supporting journalist to whom I mentioned it recently looked at me in disbelief, and then suggested I'd made it up).

Let's be clear. On the basis of the latest polls, the Tories are on course to secure less than a point or two more of the popular vote than Michael Howard did in 2005. But, I suspect, this will be quietly ignored by a compliant press pack. Expectations have been managed. If the Conservatives emerge as the largest single party on Friday morning, it will be spun by Andy Coulson and his allies in the Murdoch media as a victory for the "modernised" Conservative party. And if they manage to scrape a small majority of five or 10 seats, it will be hailed as a miracle – and as a ringing endorsement for David Cameron.

This is palpable nonsense. Cameron is the longest-serving of the three party leaders – and, if a week is a long time in politics, then four and a half years is an eternity. That he is still struggling to stay ahead – against an unpopular and unelected prime minister, at the helm of a party in office for the past 13 years – is a damning indictment of his poor leadership. As one cabinet minister pointed out to me a few days ago: "Cleggmania is a distraction. The real, unreported story of this election campaign is how David Cameron failed to pull away – even before the debates."

Poll after poll suggests Cameron, as the cliché goes, has "failed to seal the deal". So don't believe the spin or hype. Take a step back. Remember where the goalposts were. Anything short of a convincing and comfortable majority for the Tories on Thursday will be a miserable failure for Cameron, Coulson and co.