You have probably contributed more than anyone else to the normalisation of politics in Northern Ireland.
The Tories always stood a good chance of winning North Down, and possibly also Belfast South. Those are both in the bag now, entirely unexpectedly joined by Strangford and by Belfast East. If Ian Paisley retires, then even Antrim North becomes a possibility, especially since the DUP will presumably run his ballast-for-brains, financially question-marked son, and since Jim Allister will split the DUP vote considerably. Only one more, perhaps again thanks to TUV, and that's a third of all seats in Northern Ireland. In a hung Parliament.
Labour and the Lib Dems were always going to have to contest seats there if the Tories made any serious effort to. Under the reasonably possible circumstances this year, they would move very quickly indeed to do so, not least considering the likelihood of a second General Election. Think of anywhere like East Belfast in England, Scotland or Wales and ask yourself whether Labour would ever allow the Tories to provide the MP. Well, there you are, then.
All of which means that Northern Ireland, where permanent and irremovable pseudo-centrist coalition was first tried overtly and has first collapsed spectacularly, will be a full participant in the rapidly approaching realignment to replace it.
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Upper Bann, Lagan Valley, would both be safe Tory seats on the mainland. Londonderry East if TUV really splits the DUP vote hard. Allister himself could win Antrim North, though. If Papa Doc does retire then it will be between Allister and the Tory, with Baby Doc nowhere.
ReplyDeleteTory MPs from both Belfast East and Londonderry East? Just the once, let me assure you. Leaving aside the shape of realignment, they'll both have Labour MPs the next time. Labour, or whatever replaces it, will make sure of that.
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