Since Iran is not in fact building nuclear weapons, President Obama can just announce his satisfaction that she has "stopped" whenever it is politic to do so. As soon as possible, please.
Only about half of the Iranian population is ethnically Persian. Much of the oil is in the Arab South West. There are Kurds in the North West. Half of the Baluchis are in the East, the other half being across the border in Pakistan, where they have long-standing secessionist tendencies. There are so many Turkemen that Tehran is actually the second-largest Turkish-speaking city on earth, even though Turkish is a minority language there. There are more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan. There is a sizeable and very ancient community of Jews, complete with its own reserved seat in Parliament. There are also three reserved seats for Christians, namely two for Armenians and one for an Assyrian. And so on.
A multinational state such as the United Kingdom should be insisting on the preservation of Iran (which any war would undoubtedly destroy), as it should have insisted on the preservation of Iraq and Yugoslavia. And an America true to her own best ideals would take, and would have taken, the same view. This might just now be happening.
An attack on Iran would make the Iraq War look like the Teddybears' Picnic, exploding the Shi'ite Arab arc from South-Western Iran through Southern Iraq and round the Gulf (including most of the oil-producing part of Saudi Arabia), exploding Kurdistan across at least three countries including Turkey (a member of NATO), exploding the Turkish-speaking parts of Turkey as well, exploding Azerbaijan and thus the Caucuses, exploding Baluchistan (and thus nuclear-armed, Deobandi-ridden Pakistan), and on, and on, and on...
It is almost impossible to state in words the urgency of preventing this from happening.
But why would anyone want it to happen? Iran is a multi-ethnic emerging democracy with, among other things, more women than men at university. Its present President is on the way out, anyway. The people accusing him of having a nuclear weapons programme (contrary to a fatwa by the Supreme Leader) and of wanting to kill the population of Israel are the same people who told you that Iraq had magic nuclear weapons capable of being deployed within 45 minutes, capable of reaching New York from Mesopotamia, and one hundred per cent undetectable.
But they have already gone.
Evidently.
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David,
ReplyDeleteYou write: "Since Iran is not in fact building nuclear weapons ..."
How do you know what Iran is doing? If you mean that they are not now assembling bombs, that may be true - unless, of course, what appears in the papers is entirely wrong.
Anything beyond that is, unless you have some inside information, rank speculation. Even the US government says it does not know for sure.
Neal, the Administration's actions speak louder than words on this, and will soon speak louder still. Detente with Iran is now a given.
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteIt all depends. If you are right that Iran is not building a bomb, there can potentially be some reconciliation - although I would not expect too much of it. If, on the other hand, you are wrong, then Obama will have a lot of decisions to make, as do all the other countries in the region. If Iran intends a bomb, these other countries will be urging Obama to prevent Iran from acquiring such weapons by any and all means and/or otherwise protect them from Iran.
Again, it all depends. I must say, though, that if Iran is not working towards building a bomb, they are doing a real good job fooling the world.
If you are correct about Iran's intentions, reconciliation is conceivable but not assured. Such would, of course, depend not only on the US but on Iran and on what US allies in the region think.
ReplyDeleteIf, on the other hand, you are wrong and Iran has intentions to build a bomb, then Iran's rivals will demand that the US protect them either by preventing Iran from completing its project and/or by placing the US nuclear shield over them - promising US retaliation if Iran uses its bomb.
Again, it all depends on Iran.
And what if the US just says no, grow up and look after yourselves?
ReplyDeleteClinton, AIPAC-endorsed hired help of the Jew-hating Gulf monarchs, may have been made Secretary of State. But she never became President.
And it is quite clear that Obama has foreign poicy agenda of his own. Beginning with Iran. But certainly not ending there.