The So-Called Moderates Play With Fire

With impeccable timing against the background of the Melonitov-Starmertrop Pact, and illustrating both that he was the best Prime Minister of my lifetime and that that was not necessarily saying very much, Gordon Brown writes:

In recent days, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has capitulated to the far-right anti-immigration agenda of Marine Le Pen. In July, in an electoral pact with the left, he sought a firewall against her. Now he has turned rightwards, giving her an effective veto over prime minister Michel Barnier’s new government.

By the end of the month, the Austrian Freedom party (FPÖ), founded by two former members of the SS, Anton Reinthaller and Friedrich Peter, is expected to form an anti-immigration, pro-Russian government. It will cement a new hard-right axis across Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, and more importantly, Italy, where step by step the far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni (who met Keir Starmer on Monday), is accused of taking control of the press and the judiciary.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has just won the east German regional elections in Thuringia and came second in Saxony. This is despite Germany’s domestic intelligence agency listing the AfD in three states as an “extremist” organisation, reflecting concerns about the Holocaust denial and links to far-right political violence of some of its members – and their invoking of banned Nazi slogans, for which the party’s Thuringian leader, Björn Höcke, has twice been found guilty in German courts.

But while Germany’s centre-right opposition leader, Friedrich Merz, who last year supported coalitions with the AfD in local government, has now refused to enter any national or regional coalition with the AfD, he has come closer to much of its anti-immigration agenda. He now wants “to talk about the issue of repatriation” of existing residents.

Now Höcke is openly mocking what he calls the “dumb firewall” against him, forecasting that it will not last. And last week the German coalition government reacted to the AfD’s success by tightening control of its borders in an effort to curb irregular migration.

Another lurch rightward came with the decision last month by the Dutch health minister, a member of Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom party, to refuse requests from African countries for urgent help in the fight against mpox, even when the Dutch stockpile runs to 100,000 boxes of unused vaccines – many of which will pass their use-by date next year.

The spectre haunting Europe is not communism, as Karl Marx once wrote, but far-right extremism. And not much is left of the cordon sanitaire that was to keep out the far right. Europe now has seven governments with hard-right parties in control or in coalition, with Austria likely to be next, as once-immovable barriers to contamination are swept aside by centre-right appeasers.

“Breaking point” was the slogan on a poster that Nigel Farage deployed in 2016 during the Brexit referendum campaign, portraying bearded and dark-skinned migrants appearing to march in droves towards us. The exact same photograph was later replicated in Hungary, with the caption changed from “Breaking point” to “Stop”.

Similar slogans include “Stop the invasion” (“Stop invasione”), used by Matteo Salvini’s Italian League party; and “Close the borders” (“Grenzen dicht”), adopted by German far-right groups the AfD and Pegida (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West). A few years ago, when the now-imprisoned former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon attempted to form a global coalition of anti-globalists, he managed to herd together a number of Europe’s rightwing leaders, from Nigel Farage to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. He was involved in setting up an “Academy for the Judeo-Christian West” in Italy. And Trump’s “America first” Republican party is now one of many to adopt the “my country first” slogan.

Spain’s far-right Vox party has used “Primero lo nuestro. Primero los españoles”; Italy’s League, “Prima gli Italiani”; Hungary’s Fidesz party, “Nekünk Magyarország az első”; Germany’s AfD, “Unser Land zuerst”; Austria’s FPÖ, “Österreich zuerst”; and the Swiss People’s Party, “Die Schweiz zuerst”.

Outside Europe, “Önce Türkiye” (“Turkey First”) is promoted by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party. The far-right Japan First party marches under the banner of “日本第一” (“Japan first”). “India first” has been adopted by prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party.

Variations on this theme include “Polska dla Polaków” (“Poland for Poles”), used by nationalists in Poland, Vox’s slogan “España viva” (“Long live Spain”), and “Brasil acima de tudo” (“Brazil above everything”), used by Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro.

In all, about 50 countries have already gone to the polls in 2024. “Fears that this year would reflect the global triumph of illiberal populism have so far been proved wrong,” Francis Fukuyama, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy and the author of the End of History and the Last Man thesis, has concluded. “Democratic backsliding can and has been resisted in many countries.”

He can, of course, point to the return of Labour in Britain, the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, the shift away from the far right in Poland and the setback for Modi in India. But the Polish and Indian results tell me no more than tolerance of rightwing extremism can ebb when the electorate finds out that the nationalist demagogues are good at exploiting grievances, but bad at eradicating them.

And so we must not forget what has happened in countries from Indonesia to Argentina, the knife-edge fight for power in the US and – what Fukuyama misses in Europe – the insidious surrender of the centre to far-right prejudice.

Of course, there are ways to frustrate the onward rush of rightwing populists. Not only did the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, defeat the right in national elections last year, but he has skilfully engineered a split between Spain’s centre-right People’s party (PP) and the far-right Vox over the fate of vulnerable child migrants. Until July the two were in coalition in five key regions: Valencia, Aragón, Murcia, Extremadura and Castilla y León.

But it was not the centre-right PP that abandoned the extreme-right Vox; it was the extreme right that walked away from the centre right. And as long as the so-called moderates continue to play with fire – believing that by keeping their opponent close, they can eventually tame the beast – they will continue to lose. Sooner rather than later, the far-right poison will have to be countered with a progressive agenda focused on what matters to people most: jobs, standards of living, fairness and bridging the morally indefensible gap between rich and poor.